Rostov vs Sochi Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia

Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka Fri, 17 Apr - 4:30 PM

Premier League

Rostov FCR

Sochi Sochi

Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 4:30 PM

Round 25 Regular Season

Kirill Zaika - 89'

CONTEXT

In a surprising Russian Premier League encounter, FC Rostov hosted PFC Sochi but suffered a narrow 0-1 defeat despite being the stronger team on paper. Rostov controlled 51% possession and created chances, yet failed to score, with the match locked at 0-0 at halftime. Sochi, holding 49% possession, capitalized efficiently in the second half for the decisive goal, marking a significant structural deviation. No red cards disrupted play, and the visitors' clinical finishing turned the tide against the home side's dominance. This result highlights Sochi's resilience and Rostov's profligacy, flipping pre-match expectations in a tightly contested affair.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Sochi delivered a significant 100% deviation by overcoming stronger Rostov 1-0.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match evaluations throughout the match.
xG alignment: xG alignment remains undetermined due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: The outcome fully aligned with market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without recorded metrics.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout ties influenced proceedings.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary events.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

E. Bulanov

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Safjan

1st Assistant

D. Bereznov

2nd Assistant

D. Kashirin

4th Official

J. Alba Cabello

I. Osinkin

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.54

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

2 - 3 - 6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Rostov

Draw

Sochi

Team Power Ranking

18.1

13.78

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Rostov

Sochi

Power Score

18.1

13.78

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Rostov — Opponent-weighted form score

Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rostov Sochi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Rostov

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rostov ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Sochi

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

17.84

23.37

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

23.37

17.84

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Rostov -0.64 Efficiency Index

Sochi +0.64 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Rostov

Sochi

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rostov ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Sochi

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Rostov Sochi

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Rostov Sochi

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Rostov

Sochi

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Rostov

Sochi

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Rostov Sochi

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Rostov Sochi

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Rostov

Sochi

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

FCR had peak pressure around 45'.
FCR started the game with stronger pressure.

FCR Pressure Sochi Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: FCR reached the top pressure at 45' (70.21).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rostov FCR Home

11 matches

Sochi Sochi Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-15

Goal Difference

+15

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:02:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2

Match Formation 3-4-3

13 H. Hankič

4 V. Melekhin

78 D. Chistyakov

22 D. Semenchuk

7 R. Soares dos Santos

10 K. Shchetinin

8 A. Mironov

18 K. Kuchaev

40 I. Vakhaniya

69 E. Golenkov

99 T. Suleymanov

35 A. Degtev

4 V. Litvinov

33 M. Alves Santos

3 A. Soldatenkov

17 A. Makarchuk

19 A. Kovalenko

20 D. Vasilev

27 K. Zaika

8 M. Ignatov

98 V. Ilyin

29 R. Ezhov

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 17, 2026, 04:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 25 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Capacity :

2500

Attendance :

9727

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ , Clear

Referees :

Dmitri Safjan

Denis Bereznov

Danil Kashirin

Evgeni Bulanov

Statistics

Possession

FCR

51%

Sochi

49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1

0 Big Chances Created 1

4 Shots 2

42 Dangerous attacks 49

51 Possession 49

6 Corners 5

21 Free kicks 12

0 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

0 Assists 1

73 Ball Safe 83

4 Substitutions 5

6 Goal Attempts 3

3 Injuries 1

12 Dribble Attempts 9

22 Successful Headers 13

15 Throwins 30

58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67

2 Goal Kicks 5

7 Successful Dribbles 6

Attacking

91 Attacks 99

Possession

294 Successful Passes 260

389 Passes 388

76 Successful Passes Percentage 67

86 Long Passes 74

48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

41 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

1 Saves 4

71 Duels Won 63

10 Interceptions 2

15 Tackles 16

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 14

4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 17

1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Evgeni Bulanov

Manager ▼

J. Alba Cabello Coach

Starting XI ▼

Hidajet Hankic Goalkeeper

6.82

Viktor Melekhin Defender

6.71

David Semenchuk Defender

6.73

Oumar Sako

Defender76'

6.67

Dmitriy Chistyakov Defender

6.93

Ronaldo Midfielder

6.87

Ivan Komarov

Midfielder84'

6.65

Aleksey Mironov Midfielder

7.1

Kirill Shchetinin Midfielder

6.96

Konstantin Kuchaev Midfielder

6.82

Mohammad Mohebi

Midfielder64'

6.83

Ilya Vakhania Midfielder

6.74

Egor Golenkov Attacker

6.85

Timur Suleymanov Attacker

6.77

Andrey Langovich

Defender76'

6.55

Substitutes ▼

Mohammad Mohebi

Midfielder64'

6.83

Oumar Sako

Defender76'

6.67

Andrey Langovich

Defender76'

6.55

Ivan Komarov

Midfielder84'

6.65

Bench ▼

Daniil Odoevskiy Goalkeeper

Danila Prokhin Defender

6.63

Eyad El Askalany Defender

German Ignatov Defender

6.47

Khoren Bayramyan Midfielder

6.45

I. Zhbanov Midfielder

6.58

Daniil Shantaliy Midfielder

6.48

Anton Shamonin Attacker

6.54

Referee : Evgeni Bulanov