Rostov vs Orenburg Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia

Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka Sat, 25 Apr - 11:30 AM

Premier League

Rostov FCR

Orenburg Orenburg

Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 11:30 AM

Round 27 Regular Season

G. Guzina - 85'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Rostov 0–1 Orenburg. The result saw Orenburg take the points. Orenburg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 52%–48%.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Orenburg produced a significant 100% deviation by winning against the stronger Rostov side.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match evaluations.
xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: Result aligned fully with market positioning.
xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for analysis.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the match dynamics.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

P. Kukuyan

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Stipidi

1st Assistant

A. Ermilov

2nd Assistant

Y. Khromey

4th Official

J. Alba Cabello

I. Akhmetzyanov

0.93

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.07

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

7 - 3 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Rostov

Draw

Orenburg

Team Power Ranking

17.47

15.63

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Rostov

Orenburg

Power Score

17.47

15.63

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Rostov — Opponent-weighted form score

Orenburg — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rostov Orenburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Rostov

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Orenburg

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rostov ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Orenburg

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

27.98

31.04

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

31.04

27.98

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Rostov -0.35 Efficiency Index

Orenburg +0.35 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Rostov

Orenburg

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rostov ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Orenburg

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Rostov Orenburg

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Rostov Orenburg

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Rostov

Orenburg

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Rostov

Orenburg

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Rostov Orenburg

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Rostov Orenburg

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Rostov

Orenburg

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

FCR had peak pressure around 26'.
FCR started the game with stronger pressure.

FCR Pressure Orenburg Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: FCR reached the top pressure at 26' (80.53).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rostov FCR Home

13 matches

Orenburg Orenburg Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:01:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3

Match Formation 5-4-1

1 R. Yatimov

4 V. Melekhin

78 D. Chistyakov

3 O. Sako

40 I. Vakhaniya

10 K. Shchetinin

8 A. Mironov

18 K. Kuchaev

7 R. Soares dos Santos

69 E. Golenkov

99 T. Suleymanov

88 M. Rudakov

32 A. Cantero Fernandez

4 D. Khotulev

6 J. Palacios Santos

65 I. Ivashchenko

18 F. Moufi

7 F. Gürlük

57 E. Bolotov

37 E. Santos Queiroz

16 J. Thompson

19 Alexandre Jesus

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 25, 2026, 11:30 AM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 27 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Central’nyj im. I.P. Chayka

Capacity :

2500

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Pavel Kukuyan

Aleksey Stipidi

Aleksey Ermilov

Yaroslav Khromey

Statistics

Possession

FCR

50%

Orenburg

50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1

0 Big Chances Created 1

12 Shots 13

51 Dangerous attacks 38

52 Possession 48

7 Corners 3

17 Free kicks 16

0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

21 Throwins 37

10 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45

10 Dribble Attempts 11

46 Successful Headers 29

1 Successful Dribbles 5

6 Goal Kicks 5

0 Hit Woodwork 1

7 Goal Attempts 4

68 Ball Safe 87

4 Substitutions 5

0 Injuries 3

Attacking

86 Attacks 92

Possession

209 Successful Passes 197

348 Passes 329

26 Successful Long Passes 23

60 Successful Passes Percentage 60

82 Long Passes 86

32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27

Defensive

18 Tackles 13

80 Duels Won 57

16 Interceptions 6

1 Saves 4

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 17

2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

14 Fouls 17

2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Pavel Kukuyan

Manager ▼

J. Alba Cabello Coach

Starting XI ▼

Rustam Yatimov Goalkeeper

6.69

Oumar Sako Defender

6.7

Viktor Melekhin Defender

6.75

David Semenchuk

Defender46'

6.72

Ilya Vakhania Defender

6.75

Dmitriy Chistyakov Defender

6.96

Aleksey Mironov Midfielder

7.11

Kirill Shchetinin Midfielder

6.94

Mohammad Mohebi

Midfielder88'

6.82

Konstantin Kuchaev Midfielder

6.83

Daniil Shantaliy

Midfielder67'

6.48

Ronaldo Attacker

6.85

Egor Golenkov Attacker

6.86

Khoren Bayramyan

Midfielder73'

6.44

Timur Suleymanov Attacker

6.78

Substitutes ▼

David Semenchuk

Defender46'

6.72

Daniil Shantaliy

Midfielder67'

6.48

Khoren Bayramyan

Midfielder73'

6.44

Mohammad Mohebi

Midfielder88'

6.82

Bench ▼

Sergey Mokrousov Goalkeeper

Daniil Odoevskiy Goalkeeper

6.57

Danila Prokhin Defender

6.63

German Ignatov Defender

6.47

Andrey Langovich Defender

6.53

Ivan Komarov Midfielder

6.63

Ibraheem Mahfus Ajasa Attacker

6.42

Anton Shamonin Attacker

6.5

Referee : Pavel Kukuyan