Rosenborg vs Lillestrøm Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Lerkendal Stadion Sun, 10 May - 12:30 PM
Eliteserien
Rosenborg Rosenborg
2 Winner 0
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm
Full Time Sun, 10 May 12:30 PM
Round 8 Regular Season
Amin Chiakha - 24'
Simen Bolkan Nordli - 10' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Rosenborg claimed a convincing 2-0 win over Lillestrøm in a match where they established dominance early. Both goals arrived in the first half, giving the home side a 2-0 halftime lead that they preserved through a balanced second period. Possession was nearly even at 51% for Rosenborg against 49% for Lillestrøm, reflecting a tightly contested affair after the break. As the pre-designated stronger team, Rosenborg's victory featured minimal structural deviation of just 2.1%, staying true to form. No red cards disrupted play, and there were no notable second-half adjustments. The outcome aligned with market expectations, underscoring Rosenborg's control and efficiency in line with projections. Lillestrøm struggled to create meaningful threats, allowing Rosenborg to see out the game comfortably.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rosenborg exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.1%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

O. Nilsen

Norway 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Olav Dale

1st Assistant

Norway

I. Tariq

2nd Assistant

Norway

P. Grov Heiberg

4th Official

Norway

League averages

Eliteserien Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.82
Yellow cards / match 3.08
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.23
Rosenborg A. Johansson
A. Johansson
VS
Lillestrøm H. Ødegaard
H. Ødegaard
0.89
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.29
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Viking Rank: 78 L
Brann Rank: 66 D
Sandefjord Rank: 61 D
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 59 W
Tromsø Rank: 69 L
Vålerenga Rank: 59 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 60 W
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 81 L
Vålerenga Rank: 61 W
Tromsø Rank: 69 D
Start Rank: 50 W
Molde Rank: 66 W
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 11 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rosenborg
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Lillestrøm
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.58
49.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rosenborg
Lillestrøm
Power Score
62.58
49.33
League Position
13
3
Global Rank
415
592

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rosenborg — Opponent-weighted form score
Lillestrøm — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rosenborg Lillestrøm

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rosenborg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lillestrøm

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rosenborg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lillestrøm
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.31
26.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.02
39.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rosenborg +1.35 Efficiency Index
vs
Lillestrøm -1.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rosenborg
Lillestrøm
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rosenborg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lillestrøm
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rosenborg Lillestrøm
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rosenborg Lillestrøm
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rosenborg
Lillestrøm
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rosenborg
vs
Lillestrøm
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rosenborg Lillestrøm
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rosenborg 0.44
Lillestrøm 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rosenborg Lillestrøm
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rosenborg 0.00
Lillestrøm 0.05
Rosenborg
Lillestrøm
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rosenborg had peak pressure around 34'.
  • Rosenborg started the game with stronger pressure.
Rosenborg Pressure Lillestrøm Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rosenborg reached the top pressure at 34' (76.57).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rosenborg Rosenborg Home
38 matches
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm Away
Match Record
19
Wins
8
11
Draws
11
8
Losses
19
Goals
79
Goals Scored
51
51
Goals Conceded
79
+28
Goal Difference
-28

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:02:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
L. Wahlstedt
Sweden
1 L. Wahlstedt
A. Fonn Witry
Norway
16 A. Fonn Witry
H. Røsten
Norway
2 H. Røsten
T. Nemčík
Slovakia
21 T. Nemčík
J. Svensson
Substitution
Norway
22 J. Svensson
M. Bomholt
Denmark
17 M. Bomholt
S. Väänänen
Finland
6 S. Väänänen
O. Selnæs
Substitution
Norway
10 O. Selnæs
E. Ceide
Substitution
Norway
35 E. Ceide
A. Chiakha
Substitution
Denmark
18 A. Chiakha
S. Nordli
Substitution
Norway
7 S. Nordli
Pitch
P. Dahlberg
Sweden
12 P. Dahlberg
S. Ottesen
Substitution
Norway
3 S. Ottesen
U. Yttergård Jenssen
Norway
23 U. Yttergård Jenssen
L. Gabrielsen
Norway
28 L. Gabrielsen
L. Ranger
Substitution
Norway
2 L. Ranger
Y. Ibrahimaj
Kosovo
29 Y. Ibrahimaj
V. António Félix
Angola
20 V. António Félix
G. Kjølstad Nyheim
Substitution
Norway
14 G. Kjølstad Nyheim
M. Karlsbakk
Norway
8 M. Karlsbakk
S. Drammeh
Substitution
Gambia
15 S. Drammeh
K. Arierhi
Substitution
9 K. Arierhi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 8 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Lerkendal Stadion
Capacity :
21421
Attendance :
11892
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ola Hobber Nilsen
Anders Olav Dale
Imran Tariq
Per Oscar Grov Heiberg

Statistics

Possession
Rosenborg
50%
Lillestrøm
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
7 Shots 3
41 Dangerous attacks 55
51 Possession 49
1 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

24 Throwins 26
68 Ball Safe 74
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
17 Dribble Attempts 16
1 Penalties 0
6 Successful Dribbles 9
5 Goal Kicks 10
1 Assists 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
11 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
6 Counter Attacks 6
118 Attacks 84

Possession

42 Long Passes 55
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
445 Successful Passes 433
541 Passes 514
82 Successful Passes Percentage 84
16 Successful Long Passes 25
13 Key Passes 7

Defensive

44 Duels Won 43
14 Tackles 19
4 Interceptions 11
3 Saves 2

Build-up

5 Total Crosses 15
1 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

9 Fouls 15
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Ola Hobber Nilsen

Starting XI ▼

1
Leopold Wahlstedt
Leopold Wahlstedt Goalkeeper
2
Håkon Røsten
Håkon Røsten Defender
16
Aslak Witry
Aslak Witry Defender
21
Tomas Nemcik
Tomas Nemcik Defender
22
Jonas Svensson
Jonas Svensson Defender
3
Tobias Solheim Dahl
Tobias Solheim Dahl
Defender54'
6
Santeri Väänänen
Santeri Väänänen Midfielder
10
Ole Selnæs
Ole Selnæs Midfielder
29
David Duris
David Duris
Attacker46'
17
Mads Bomholt
Mads Bomholt Midfielder
35
Emil Konradsen Ceide
Emil Konradsen Ceide Midfielder
11
Noah Sahsah
Noah Sahsah
Attacker67'
7
Simen Bolkan Nordli
Simen Bolkan Nordli Attacker
8
Iver Fossum
Iver Fossum
Midfielder79'
18
Amin Chiakha
Amin Chiakha Attacker
9
Dino Islamovic
Dino Islamovic
Attacker67'
Referee : Ola Hobber Nilsen

Starting XI ▼

12
Pontus Dahlberg
Pontus Dahlberg Goalkeeper
2
Lars Ranger
Lars Ranger Defender
5
Sander Moen Foss
Sander Moen Foss
Defender86'
3
Sturla Ottesen
Sturla Ottesen Defender
11
Frederik Elkær
Frederik Elkær
Defender71'
23
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen Defender
28
Ruben Gabrielsen
Ruben Gabrielsen Defender
8
Markus Karlsbakk
Markus Karlsbakk Midfielder
14
Gustav Nyheim
Gustav Nyheim Midfielder
6
Harald Woxen
Harald Woxen
Midfielder54'
15
Salieu Drammeh
Salieu Drammeh Midfielder
19
Camil Jebara
Camil Jebara
Attacker54'
20
Felix Vá
Felix Vá Midfielder
29
Y. Ibrahimaj
Y. Ibrahimaj Midfielder
9
Kparobo Arierhi
Kparobo Arierhi Attacker
7
Linus Alperud
Linus Alperud
Midfielder71'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Sander Moen Foss
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Sander Moen Foss → Lars Ranger
10th Substitution
Event
Iver Fossum → Simen Bolkan Nordli
9th Substitution
79'
71'
Event
Frederik Elkær → Sturla Ottesen
8th Substitution
71'
Event
Linus Alperud → Kparobo Arierhi
7th Substitution
Event
Noah Sahsah → Emil Konradsen Ceide
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Dino Islamovic → Amin Chiakha
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Tobias Solheim Dahl → Jonas Svensson
2nd Substitution
54'
54'
Event
Harald Woxen → Gustav Nyheim
4th Substitution
54'
Event
Camil Jebara → Salieu Drammeh
3rd Substitution
Event
David Duris → Ole Selnæs
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Ole Selnæs
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+4'
Event
Aslak Witry
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
42'
30'
Event
Y. Ibrahimaj
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Amin Chiakha
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
24'
Event
Simen Bolkan Nordli
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
10'
Event
Jonas Svensson
Penalty awarded
8'

CONCLUSION

Rosenborg's 2-0 triumph solidified their status as the superior side, capitalizing on first-half opportunities to build an unassailable lead. The even possession battle in the second half highlighted their defensive resilience, preventing Lillestrøm from mounting a comeback. With minimal deviation and full market alignment, the performance was textbook for the home team. Lacking xG insights limits deeper analysis, but the clean sheet and early scoring underscored tactical discipline. This result boosts Rosenborg's momentum while exposing Lillestrøm's finishing woes.

Rosenborg vs Lillestrøm preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.