Roma vs Lazio Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Sun, 17 May - 10:00 AM
Serie A
Roma ROM
2 Winner 0
Lazio LAZ
Full Time Sun, 17 May 10:00 AM
Round 37 Regular Season
Gianluca Mancini - 66', 40'
Goal
|
Wesley 70' Red Card
|
Red Card Nicolò Rovella  70'

CONTEXT

Roma secured a 2-0 victory over Lazio in a match that featured one red card for each side and saw the home team lead 1-0 at halftime. Despite Roma holding 49 percent possession compared to Lazio's 51 percent, the hosts generated an expected goals total of 1.52 while limiting the visitors to 0.61. The game remained competitive until the second half adjustments altered the flow, with Roma maintaining their advantage to claim the win. The stronger team prevailed as expected, and the final scoreline reflected the underlying performance metrics without major surprises in the outcome. Both teams navigated the challenges of playing with ten men after the dismissals, which influenced the later stages of the contest.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Roma showed a significant 37.6 percent deviation from pre-match expectations in securing the win.
  • Efficiency shift: Roma's performance proved in line with their expected output throughout the fixture.
  • xG alignment: The 2-0 result aligned directly with the xG figures of 1.52 for Roma and 0.61 for Lazio.
  • Market alignment: The final outcome remained consistent with pre-match projections for the stronger side.
  • xG expectations: Roma posted 1.52 expected goals while Lazio managed just 0.61 in the contest.
  • Event impact: The match concluded 2-0 after Roma led 1-0 at the interval with both teams reduced to ten men.
  • Red card distortion: Red cards for each team created second-half adjustments that shaped the closing stages.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Maresca

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Peretti

1st Assistant

Italy

G. Perrotti

2nd Assistant

Italy

M. Fabbri

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.85
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.17
Roma G. Gasperini
G. Gasperini
VS
Lazio M. Sarri
M. Sarri
1.72
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: 73 W
Fiorentina Rank: 78 W
Bologna Rank: 78 W
Atalanta Rank: 84 D
Pisa Rank: 62 W
Inter Rank: 92 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Inter Rank: 91 L
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Udinese Rank: 75 D
Napoli Rank: 85 W
Fiorentina Rank: 78 L
Parma Rank: 72 D
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 10 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Roma
62.43%
Draw
22.57%
Away Lazio
15%

Movement

Changes since opening
Roma
-35.46%
Draw
+20.65%
Lazio
+14.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.97
79.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Roma
Lazio
Power Score
85.97
79.63
League Position
4
9
Global Rank
27
60

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Roma — Opponent-weighted form score
Lazio — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Roma Lazio

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Roma

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lazio

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Roma ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lazio
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.90
15.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.20
34.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Roma +1.99 Efficiency Index
vs
Lazio -1.99 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Roma
Lazio
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Roma
vs
Lazio
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Roma Lazio
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Roma Lazio
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Roma
Lazio
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Roma
vs
Lazio
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Roma Lazio
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Roma 0.73
Lazio 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Roma Lazio
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Roma 0.00
Lazio 0.09
Roma
Lazio
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ROM had peak pressure around 71'.
  • ROM started the game with stronger pressure.
ROM Pressure LAZ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ROM reached the top pressure at 71' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 46 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Roma ROM Home
46 matches
Lazio LAZ Away
Match Record
21
Wins
15
10
Draws
10
15
Losses
21
Goals
62
Goals Scored
52
52
Goals Conceded
62
+10
Goal Difference
-10

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:58:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Svilar
Serbia
99 M. Svilar
G. Mancini
Substitution
Italy
23 G. Mancini
O. N'Dicka
Substitution
France
5 O. N'Dicka
M. Hermoso Canseco
Spain
22 M. Hermoso Canseco
M. Çelik
Türkiye
19 M. Çelik
B. Cristante
Italy
4 (C) B. Cristante
N. El Aynaoui
France
8 N. El Aynaoui
W. França Lima
Brazil
43 W. França Lima
P. Exequiel Dybala
Substitution
Argentina
21 P. Exequiel Dybala
N. Pisilli
Substitution
Italy
61 N. Pisilli
D. Malen
Substitution
Netherlands
14 D. Malen
Pitch
A. Furlanetto
Italy
55 A. Furlanetto
N. Varela Tavares
Portugal
17 N. Varela Tavares
O. Nielsen
Denmark
25 O. Nielsen
M. Fuentes
Spain
34 M. Fuentes
A. Marušić
Substitution
Montenegro
77 (C) A. Marušić
K. Taylor
Substitution
Netherlands
24 K. Taylor
N. Rovella
Italy
6 N. Rovella
T. Bašić
Croatia
26 T. Bašić
T. Noslin
Substitution
Netherlands
14 T. Noslin
B. Dia
Substitution
Senegal
19 B. Dia
M. Cancellieri
Substitution
Italy
22 M. Cancellieri

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity :
72698
Attendance :
50152
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Fabio Maresca
Giorgio Peretti
Giuseppe Perrotti
Michael Fabbri

Statistics

Possession
ROM
50%
LAZ
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 2
22 Dangerous attacks 35
49 Possession 51
8 Corners 3
17 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
7 Successful Headers 14
16 Throwins 20
10 Dribble Attempts 11
8 Goal Kicks 9
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
6 Successful Dribbles 6
113 Ball Safe 121
2 Injuries 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
15 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

78 Attacks 81
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 86
420 Passes 440
39 Long Passes 31
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 58
363 Successful Passes 379
9 Key Passes 5
20 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

17 Interceptions 11
2 Saves 6
17 Tackles 14
46 Duels Won 49

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 2
14 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
15 Fouls 17

Lineup

Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

99
Mile Svilar
Mile Svilar Goalkeeper
6.91
5
Evan Ndicka
Evan Ndicka Defender
6.54
2
Devyne Rensch
Devyne Rensch
Defender37'
6.67
22
Mario Hermoso
Mario Hermoso Defender
6.72
23
Gianluca Mancini
Gianluca Mancini Defender
2
8.81
24
Jan Ziolkowski
Jan Ziolkowski
Defender83'
6.55
4
Bryan Cristante
Bryan Cristante (C) Midfielder
7.26
8
Neil El Aynaoui
Neil El Aynaoui Midfielder
7.38
19
Zeki Çelik
Zeki Çelik Midfielder
7.05
43
Wesley
Wesley Midfielder
6.09
14
Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen Attacker
6.69
18
Matías Soulé
Matías Soulé
Attacker83'
7.06
21
Paulo Dybala
Paulo Dybala Attacker
7.82
9
Artem Dovbyk
Artem Dovbyk
Attacker88'
61
Niccolò Pisilli
Niccolò Pisilli Attacker
7.27
92
Stephan El Shaarawy
Stephan El Shaarawy
Attacker46'
6.25
Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

55
Alessio Furlanetto
Alessio Furlanetto Goalkeeper
7.49
17
Nuno Tavares
Nuno Tavares Defender
6.23
25
Oliver Provstgaard
Oliver Provstgaard Defender
6.5
34
Mario Gila
Mario Gila Defender
6.67
77
Adam Marusic
Adam Marusic (C) Defender
5.87
29
Manuel Lazzari
Manuel Lazzari
Midfielder79'
6.65
6
Nicolò Rovella
Nicolò Rovella Midfielder
5.97
24
Kenneth Taylor
Kenneth Taylor Midfielder
6.26
7
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Midfielder62'
6.39
26
Toma Bašić
Toma Bašić Midfielder
7.08
14
Tijjani Noslin
Tijjani Noslin Attacker
6.48
9
Pedro
Pedro
Attacker79'
6.59
19
Boulaye Dia
Boulaye Dia Attacker
6.82
27
Daniel Maldini
Daniel Maldini
Attacker62'
6.76
22
Matteo Cancellieri
Matteo Cancellieri Attacker
7.07
18
Gustav Isaksen
Gustav Isaksen
Attacker71'
6.39

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Artem Dovbyk → Paulo Dybala
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Stephan El Shaarawy
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Matías Soulé → Donyell Malen
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Jan Ziolkowski → Gianluca Mancini
9th Substitution
83'
79'
Event
Manuel Lazzari → Adam Marusic
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Pedro → Tijjani Noslin
7th Substitution
71'
Event
Gustav Isaksen → Matteo Cancellieri
5th Substitution
Event
Wesley
Violent conduct / 2nd Redcard
70'
70'
Event
Nicolò Rovella 
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
Event
Gianluca Mancini
Header / 2nd Goal
66'
64'
Event
Nuno Tavares
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
62'
Event
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru → Kenneth Taylor
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Daniel Maldini → Boulaye Dia
4th Substitution
Event
Stephan El Shaarawy → Niccolò Pisilli
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Mario Hermoso
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
42'
42'
Event
Matteo Cancellieri
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Gianluca Mancini
Header / 1st Goal
40'
Event
Devyne Rensch → Evan Ndicka
1st Substitution
37'
21'
Event
Kenneth Taylor
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Jan Ziolkowski takes a header, but it misses the target.
90
Attempt Attempt
Matìas Soulè Malvano takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Stephan El Shaarawy takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Artem Dovbyk takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Artem Dovbyk takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
88
Update Update
Artem Dovbyk comes on for Paulo Dybala.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stephan El Shaarawy receives a yellow card.
83
Update Update
Jan Ziolkowski replaces Gianluca Mancini.
83
Update Update
Matìas Soulè Malvano comes on for Donyell Malen.
80
Update Update
Manuel Lazzari replaces Adam Marusic.
79
Update Update
Pedro Rodriguez Ledesma, known as Pedrito, comes on for Tijjani Noslin.
76
Attempt Attempt
Zeki Celik takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Update Update
Gustav Isaksen comes on for Matteo Cancellieri.
70
Red Card Red Card Important
Wesley Vinicius receives a red card.
70
Red Card Red Card Important
Nicolo Rovella receives a red card.
66
Update Update
Gianluca Mancini scores with a header.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gianluca Mancini scores to make it 2-0, assisted by Paulo Dybala.
65
Attempt Attempt
Paulo Dybala's left-footed shot is saved.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nuno Tavares receives a yellow card.
63
Attempt Attempt
Donyell Malen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Attempt Attempt
Stephan El Shaarawy attempts a header but misses the shot.
62
Update Update
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru replaces Kenneth Taylor.
62
Update Update
Daniel Maldini comes on, and Boulaye Dia goes off.
49
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Cancellieri takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Nuno Tavares takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Stephan El Shaarawy is on, and Niccolo Pisilli is off.
44
Attempt Attempt
Mario Hermoso Canseco takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mario Hermoso Canseco receives a yellow card.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matteo Cancellieri receives a yellow card.
40
Update Update
Gianluca Mancini scores with a header.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gianluca Mancini scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Niccolo Pisilli.
37
Update Update
Deyvne Rensch comes on for Evan Ndicka.
34
Attempt Attempt
Tijjani Noslin takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Mario Gila attempted a header but missed the shot.
32
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Cancellieri's left-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Donyell Malen's right-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Mario Hermoso Canseco takes a left-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Cancellieri takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kenneth Taylor receives a yellow card.
10
Attempt Attempt
Wesley Vinicius takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
4
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Cristante takes a header but misses the shot.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Fabio Maresca.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Roma 2-0 Lazio. Structural assessment: Roma exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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