Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Olimpico Mon, 4 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Roma ROM
4 Winner 0
Fiorentina FIO
Full Time Mon, 4 May 6:45 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Niccolò Pisilli - 58'
Mario Hermoso - 34'
Wesley - 17'
Gianluca Mancini - 13'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Roma delivered a commanding 4-0 victory over Fiorentina, asserting dominance from the outset. They surged to a 3-0 halftime lead, capitalizing on superior possession of 61% against Fiorentina's 39%. The second half saw Roma add a fourth goal while maintaining control, restricting the visitors to minimal threats. No red cards disrupted play, allowing the match to unfold smoothly without significant interruptions. As the designated stronger team, Roma's performance reflected their structural edge, converting territorial advantage into goals efficiently. Fiorentina struggled to create meaningful chances, underscoring their defensive vulnerabilities and attacking deficiencies. This result aligns with Roma's pre-match favoritism, highlighting a minimal deviation in execution.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Roma's 4-0 win featured minimal structural deviation of 2.6%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No major events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

L. Zufferli

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Rossi

1st Assistant

Italy

M. Ceccon

2nd Assistant

Italy

Andrea Rapuano

4th Official

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.47
Yellow cards / match 3.12
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.17
Roma G. Gasperini
G. Gasperini
VS
Fiorentina P. Vanoli
P. Vanoli
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: 78 W
Atalanta Rank: 85 D
Pisa Rank: 63 W
Inter Rank: 91 L
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Como Rank: 84 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: 74 D
Lecce Rank: 67 D
Lazio Rank: 80 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
Inter Rank: 91 D
Cremonese Rank: 66 W
25
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
25 - 11 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Roma
97.44%
Draw
1.91%
Away Fiorentina
0.65%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.29
77.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Roma
Fiorentina
Power Score
85.29
77.1
League Position
5
16
Global Rank
35
85

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Roma — Opponent-weighted form score
Fiorentina — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Roma Fiorentina

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Roma

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fiorentina

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Roma ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fiorentina
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.07
14.87
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.87
26.07
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Roma +1.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Fiorentina -1.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Roma
Fiorentina
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Roma ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fiorentina
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Roma Fiorentina
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Roma Fiorentina
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Roma
Fiorentina
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Roma
vs
Fiorentina
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Roma Fiorentina
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Roma 0.37
Fiorentina 0.11
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Roma Fiorentina
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Roma 0.00
Fiorentina 0.11
Roma
Fiorentina
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ROM had peak pressure around 18'.
  • ROM started the game with stronger pressure.
ROM Pressure FIO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ROM reached the top pressure at 18' (78.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 47 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Roma ROM Home
47 matches
Fiorentina FIO Away
Match Record
25
Wins
11
11
Draws
11
11
Losses
25
Goals
77
Goals Scored
63
63
Goals Conceded
77
+14
Goal Difference
-14

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:03:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Svilar
Serbia
99 M. Svilar
G. Mancini
Substitution
Italy
23 G. Mancini
O. N'Dicka
France
5 O. N'Dicka
M. Hermoso Canseco
Substitution
Spain
22 M. Hermoso Canseco
M. Çelik
Türkiye
19 M. Çelik
N. Pisilli
Italy
61 N. Pisilli
K. Kone
Substitution
France
17 K. Kone
W. França Lima
Brazil
43 W. França Lima
M. Malvano
Substitution
Italy
18 M. Malvano
B. Cristante
Italy
4 B. Cristante
D. Malen
Substitution
Netherlands
14 D. Malen
Pitch
D. de Gea Quintana
Spain
43 D. de Gea Quintana
R. Gosens
Germany
21 R. Gosens
L. Ranieri
Italy
6 L. Ranieri
M. Pongracic
Substitution
Croatia
5 M. Pongracic
D. Cordeiro dos Santos
Brazil
2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
C. Ndour
Italy
27 C. Ndour
N. Fagioli
Substitution
Italy
44 N. Fagioli
M. Brescianini
Substitution
Italy
4 M. Brescianini
M. Solomon
Israel
19 M. Solomon
A. Gudmundsson
Substitution
Iceland
10 A. Gudmundsson
J. Harrison
Substitution
England
17 J. Harrison

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Olimpico
Capacity :
72698
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Luca Zufferli
Luigi Rossi
Marco Ceccon
Andrea Rapuano

Statistics

Possession
ROM
58%
FIO
42%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
14 Shots 4
38 Dangerous attacks 36
61 Possession 39
4 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

4 Assists 0
17 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
16 Throwins 18
2 Successful Dribbles 7
12 Dribble Attempts 11
9 Successful Headers 3
2 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Goal Kicks 2
5 Substitutions 5
10 Goal Attempts 3
54 Ball Safe 43

Attacking

101 Attacks 83

Possession

599 Passes 373
40 Long Passes 45
91 Successful Passes Percentage 84
20 Successful Long Passes 18
543 Successful Passes 312
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
12 Key Passes 3

Defensive

41 Duels Won 36
20 Tackles 14
11 Interceptions 9
1 Saves 3

Build-up

6 Total Crosses 19
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

12 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Luca Zufferli

Starting XI ▼

99
Mile Svilar
Mile Svilar Goalkeeper
7.02
5
Evan Ndicka
Evan Ndicka Defender
6.95
22
Mario Hermoso
Mario Hermoso Defender
6.9
24
Jan Ziolkowski
Jan Ziolkowski
Defender83'
6.71
23
Gianluca Mancini
Gianluca Mancini Defender
6.98
87
Daniele Ghilardi
Daniele Ghilardi
Defender72'
6.63
17
Manu Koné
Manu Koné Midfielder
6.97
92
Stephan El Shaarawy
Stephan El Shaarawy
Attacker64'
6.78
19
Zeki Çelik
Zeki Çelik Midfielder
6.81
43
Wesley
Wesley Midfielder
6.9
61
Niccolò Pisilli
Niccolò Pisilli Midfielder
6.63
4
Bryan Cristante
Bryan Cristante Attacker
6.97
14
Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen Attacker
7.15
78
Robinio Vaz
Robinio Vaz
Attacker83'
6.6
18
Matías Soulé
Matías Soulé Attacker
7.05
21
Paulo Dybala
Paulo Dybala
Attacker72'
7.06
Referee : Luca Zufferli

Starting XI ▼

43
David de Gea
David de Gea Goalkeeper
6.83
2
Dodô
Dodô Defender
6.92
5
Marin Pongracic
Marin Pongracic Defender
6.76
15
Pietro Comuzzo
Pietro Comuzzo
Defender46'
6.73
6
Luca Ranieri
Luca Ranieri Defender
6.75
21
Robin Gosens
Robin Gosens Defender
6.84
4
Marco Brescianini
Marco Brescianini Midfielder
6.64
80
Giovanni Fabbian
Giovanni Fabbian
Midfielder75'
6.67
27
Cher Ndour
Cher Ndour Midfielder
6.66
44
Nicolò Fagioli
Nicolò Fagioli Midfielder
7.25
22
Jacopo Fazzini
Jacopo Fazzini
Midfielder75'
6.58
10
Albert Gudmundsson
Albert Gudmundsson Attacker
6.89
65
Fabiano Parisi
Fabiano Parisi
Defender46'
6.95
17
Jack Harrison
Jack Harrison Attacker
6.71
61
Riccardo Braschi
Riccardo Braschi
Attacker46'
6.65
19
Manor Solomon
Manor Solomon Attacker
7.03

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Stephan El Shaarawy
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Robinio Vaz → Donyell Malen
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Jan Ziolkowski → Mario Hermoso
10th Substitution
83'
75'
Event
Giovanni Fabbian → Marco Brescianini
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Jacopo Fazzini → Nicolò Fagioli
8th Substitution
Event
Paulo Dybala → Matías Soulé
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Daniele Ghilardi → Gianluca Mancini
6th Substitution
72'
66'
Event
Fabiano Parisi
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Stephan El Shaarawy → Manu Koné
4th Substitution
64'
Event
Niccolò Pisilli
Header / 4th Goal
58'
Event
Mario Hermoso
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
48'
46'
Event
Riccardo Braschi → Jack Harrison
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Fabiano Parisi → Albert Gudmundsson
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Pietro Comuzzo → Marin Pongracic
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mario Hermoso
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
34'
25'
Event
Marin Pongracic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Wesley
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
17'
Event
Gianluca Mancini
Header / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Fabiano Parisi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Paulo Dybala takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stephan El Shaarawy receives a yellow card.
85
Attempt Attempt
Zeki Celik takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Update Update
Robinio Vaz comes on for Donyell Malen.
83
Substitution Substitution
Jan Ziolkowski is substituted for Mario Hermoso Canseco.
75
Update Update
Giovanni Fabbian replaces Marco Brescianini.
75
Update Update
Jacopo Fazzini comes on for Nicolo Fagioli.
72
Update Update
Paulo Dybala comes on for Matìas Soulè Malvano.
72
Update Update
Daniele Ghilardi comes on for Gianluca Mancini.
68
Attempt Attempt
Stephan El Shaarawy takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fabiano Parisi receives a yellow card.
64
Update Update
Stephan El Shaarawy is on, and Manu Kone is off.
58
Attempt Attempt
Niccolo Pisilli takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
53
Attempt Attempt
Niccolo Pisilli's right-footed shot is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Evan Ndicka attempts a header but misses the shot.
52
Attempt Attempt
Donyell Malen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mario Hermoso Canseco receives a yellow card.
47
Attempt Attempt
Riccardo Braschi takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
47
Attempt Attempt
Manor Solomon takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Pietro Comuzzo is on, and Marin Pongracic is off.
46
Update Update
Riccardo Braschi replaces Jack Harrison.
46
Update Update
Fabiano Parisi is on, and Albert Gudmundsson is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mario Hermoso Canseco attempts a header but misses the shot.
44
Attempt Attempt
Nicolo Fagioli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Donyell Malen's right-footed shot is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Mario Hermoso Canseco takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
27
Attempt Attempt
Donyell Malen takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marin Pongracic receives a yellow card.
17
Update Update
Goal! Wesley Vinicius scores, making it 2-0.
17
Attempt Attempt
Wesley Vinicius scores with a right-footed shot.
13
Update Update
Gianluca Mancini scores with a header.
13
Update Update
Goal! Gianluca Mancini scores, making it 1-0.
12
Attempt Attempt
Donyell Malen takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.

CONCLUSION

Roma's 4-0 rout of Fiorentina exemplified their superiority, with a 3-0 halftime lead setting the tone. Dominating possession at 61%, they efficiently converted chances while neutralizing Fiorentina's efforts. Minimal structural deviation and market alignment confirm the predictable nature of the result. Absent xG data limits granular insights, yet the scoreline and control metrics paint a clear picture of Roma's command. No red cards or disruptions preserved the game's flow, exposing Fiorentina's inefficiencies. This performance solidifies Roma's standing, providing momentum for future challenges in the campaign.

Roma vs Fiorentina preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Serie A, Italy View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ