Rizespor vs Beşiktaş Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu Fri, 15 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Rizespor Rizespor
2 – 2
Beşiktaş BES
Full Time Fri, 15 May 5:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Ali Sowe - 31', 18'
Goal
|
Goal
Vaclav Cerny - 62'
Jota Silva - 55'
Recep Uçar 73' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Rizespor took a commanding 2-0 lead at halftime against Beşiktaş, holding 47% possession despite being the underdogs. The home side's early dominance set the stage for a potential upset. However, a red card to Rizespor in the second half dramatically altered the game's flow, allowing Beşiktaş to seize control with 53% overall possession. The visitors, recognized as the stronger team, capitalized on the numerical advantage to score twice and salvage a 2-2 draw. This outcome represented a significant 75.4% deviation from structural expectations favoring Beşiktaş. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with projections, though the lack of xG data hinders precise evaluation of chance creation. The red card distortion was the pivotal event, enabling Beşiktaş's recovery from the halftime deficit.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The 2-2 draw showed a 75.4% significant deviation favoring Beşiktaş as the stronger team.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as the draw diverged from pre-match favoritism toward Beşiktaş.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: Home red card triggered major second-half momentum shift toward Beşiktaş.
  • Red card distortion: Rizespor's red card distorted second-half play, facilitating Beşiktaş's 2-2 equalizer.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Albayrak

Türkiye 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

League averages

Super Lig Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.69
Yellow cards / match 4.28
Red cards / match 0.19
Penalties / match 0.37
Rizespor R. Uçar
R. Uçar
VS
Beşiktaş A. Yalçın
A. Yalçın
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.86
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eyüpspor Rank: 64 L
Konyaspor Rank: 71 W
Kayserispor Rank: 61 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 D
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 65 W
Samsunspor Rank: 73 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Trabzonspor Rank: 79 L
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 66 W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 61 D
Samsunspor Rank: 73 L
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 W
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 7 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rizespor
32.01%
Draw
24.64%
Away Beşiktaş
43.35%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rizespor
+27.56%
Draw
-66%
Beşiktaş
+38.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.04
76.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rizespor
Beşiktaş
Power Score
68.04
76.97
League Position
8
4
Global Rank
251
90

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rizespor — Opponent-weighted form score
Beşiktaş — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rizespor Beşiktaş

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rizespor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Beşiktaş

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rizespor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Beşiktaş
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rizespor Beşiktaş
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rizespor Beşiktaş
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rizespor
Beşiktaş
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rizespor
vs
Beşiktaş
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rizespor Beşiktaş
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rizespor 0.00
Beşiktaş 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rizespor Beşiktaş
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rizespor 0.00
Beşiktaş 0.00
Rizespor
Beşiktaş
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rizespor had peak pressure around 94'.
  • BES started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Rizespor Pressure BES Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rizespor reached the top pressure at 94' (89.26).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 27 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rizespor Rizespor Home
27 matches
Beşiktaş BES Away
Match Record
3
Wins
17
7
Draws
7
17
Losses
3
Goals
23
Goals Scored
53
53
Goals Conceded
23
-30
Goal Difference
+30

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T16:45:28+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
Y. Fofana
France
75 Y. Fofana
M. Pala
Türkiye
54 M. Pala
A. Mocsi
Hungary
4 A. Mocsi
M. Sagnan
France
27 M. Sagnan
C. Højer Nielsen
Denmark
5 C. Højer Nielsen
I. Olawoyin
Substitution
Nigeria
10 I. Olawoyin
T. Antalyalı
Substitution
Türkiye
14 T. Antalyalı
A. Awokoya-Mebude
Substitution
Scotland
17 A. Awokoya-Mebude
Q. Laçi
Albania
20 Q. Laçi
V. Mihăilă
Substitution
Romania
7 V. Mihăilă
A. Sowe
Substitution
Gambia
9 A. Sowe
Pitch
E. Destanoğlu
Türkiye
30 E. Destanoğlu
Y. Özcan
Substitution
Türkiye
58 Y. Özcan
E. Topçu
Türkiye
53 E. Topçu
E. Agbadou
Ivory Coast
12 E. Agbadou
M. Murillo Bermudez
Panama
62 M. Murillo Bermudez
O. Ndidi
Substitution
Nigeria
4 O. Ndidi
K. Asllani
Substitution
Albania
23 K. Asllani
E. Toure
Mali
19 E. Toure
O. Kökçü
Türkiye
10 O. Kökçü
C. Ünder
Substitution
Türkiye
11 C. Ünder
M. Hekimoğlu
Substitution
Türkiye
91 M. Hekimoğlu

General Information

Date & Time :
May 15, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu
Capacity :
15558
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Asen Albayrak

Statistics

Possession
Rizespor
48%
BES
52%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 7
50 Dangerous attacks 51
47 Possession 53
8 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

15 Goal Attempts 15
83 Ball Safe 85
8 Goal Kicks 11
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 73
1 Hit Woodwork 0
16 Dribble Attempts 11
19 Throwins 19
10 Successful Dribbles 8
9 Successful Headers 16
2 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

98 Attacks 107
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

334 Successful Passes 397
396 Passes 463
84 Successful Passes Percentage 86
49 Successful Long Passes Percentage 60
15 Key Passes 17
59 Long Passes 43
29 Successful Long Passes 26

Defensive

39 Duels Won 47
13 Interceptions 15
7 Saves 3
11 Tackles 15

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 12
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
7 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Asen Albayrak

Starting XI ▼

75
Yahia Fofana
Yahia Fofana Goalkeeper
6.79
4
Attila Mocsi
Attila Mocsi Defender
6.64
5
Casper Højer
Casper Højer Defender
6.77
27
Modibo Sagnan
Modibo Sagnan Defender
6.83
54
Mithat Pala
Mithat Pala Defender
6.67
7
Valentin Mihăilă
Valentin Mihăilă Midfielder
6.8
50
Loide Augusto
Loide Augusto
Attacker57'
6.88
10
Ibrahim Olawoyin
Ibrahim Olawoyin Midfielder
6.78
6
Giannis Papanikolaou
Giannis Papanikolaou
Midfielder60'
6.66
14
T. Antalyalı
T. Antalyalı Midfielder
6.61
18
Muhamed Buljubasic
Muhamed Buljubasic
Midfielder86'
6.59
17
Adedire Mebude
Adedire Mebude Midfielder
6.89
99
Emrecan Bulut
Emrecan Bulut
Attacker86'
6.68
20
Qazim Laci
Qazim Laci Midfielder
7.24
9
Ali Sowe
Ali Sowe Attacker
2
6.69
11
Halil Dervişoğlu
Halil Dervişoğlu
Attacker87'
6.7
Referee : Asen Albayrak

Starting XI ▼

30
Ersin Destanoğlu
Ersin Destanoğlu Goalkeeper
6.89
12
Emmanuel Agbadou
Emmanuel Agbadou Defender
7.08
53
Emirhan Topçu
Emirhan Topçu Defender
7.05
58
Yasin Özcan
Yasin Özcan Defender
6.73
33
Rıdvan Yılmaz
Rıdvan Yılmaz
Defender77'
6.73
62
Amir Murillo
Amir Murillo Defender
6.74
4
Wilfred Ndidi
Wilfred Ndidi Midfielder
7.02
15
Junior Olaitan
Junior Olaitan
Midfielder46'
6.92
10
Orkun Kökçü
Orkun Kökçü Midfielder
7.6
11
Cengiz Ünder
Cengiz Ünder Midfielder
6.96
18
Vaclav Cerny
Vaclav Cerny
Attacker46'
7.04
19
El Bilal Touré
El Bilal Touré Midfielder
6.91
23
Kristjan Asllani
Kristjan Asllani Midfielder
6.79
8
Salih Uçan
Salih Uçan
Midfielder84'
6.71
91
Mustafa Hekimoğlu
Mustafa Hekimoğlu Attacker
6.59
26
Jota Silva
Jota Silva
Attacker46'
6.78

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Casper Højer
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Halil Dervişoğlu
Goal disallowed
90+5'
Event
Halil Dervişoğlu → Ali Sowe
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Muhamed Buljubasic → T. Antalyalı
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Emrecan Bulut → Adedire Mebude
9th Substitution
86'
84'
Event
Salih Uçan → Kristjan Asllani
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Rıdvan Yılmaz → Yasin Özcan
6th Substitution
Event
Recep Uçar
Argument / 1st Redcard
73'
Event
Ali Sowe
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
63'
62'
Event
Vaclav Cerny
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Giannis Papanikolaou → Ibrahim Olawoyin
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Loide Augusto → Valentin Mihăilă
4th Substitution
57'
55'
Event
Jota Silva
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Vaclav Cerny → Cengiz Ünder
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Junior Olaitan → Wilfred Ndidi
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Jota Silva → Mustafa Hekimoğlu
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Wilfred Ndidi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
33'
Event
Cengiz Ünder
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ali Sowe
Header / 2nd Goal
31'
Event
Ali Sowe
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
18'
14'
Event
Emmanuel Agbadou
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Emrecan Bulut takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Ibrahim Halil Dervisoglu.
90
Update Update
Ibrahim Halil Dervisoglu scores with a header.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Casper Hojer Nielsen receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Giannis Papanikolaou takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Giannis Papanikolaou takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
Attempt Attempt
Muhamed Buljubasic's right-footed shot is blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Giannis Papanikolaou takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Update Update
Emrecan Bulut comes on for Adedire Mebude.
86
Update Update
Muhamed Buljubasic is on, and Taylan Antalyali is off.
85
Attempt Attempt
Loide Augusto's right-footed shot is blocked.
84
Update Update
Salih Ucan comes on for Kristjan Asllani.
83
Attempt Attempt
Orkun Kokcu's right-footed shot is blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Ali Sowe takes a left-footed shot but misses.
82
Attempt Attempt
El Bilal Toure takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Orkun Kokcu takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Jota takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Junior Olaitan takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Update Update
Ridvan Yilmaz comes on for Yasin Ozcan.
77
Attempt Attempt
Kristjan Asllani takes a left-footed shot but misses.
75
Attempt Attempt
Qazim Laci takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Attempt Attempt
Loide Augusto's right-footed shot is blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Giannis Papanikolaou takes a shot with his head but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Jota takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Attempt Attempt
Emirhan Topcu takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ali Sowe receives a yellow card.
62
Attempt Attempt
Vaclav Cerny scores with a left-footed shot.
61
Attempt Attempt
Kristjan Asllani takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
61
Attempt Attempt
El Bilal Toure's right-footed shot is saved.
60
Update Update
Giannis Papanikolaou comes on for Ibrahim Olawoyin.
59
Attempt Attempt
El Bilal Toure takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Update Update
Loide Augusto comes on for Valentin Mihaila.
55
Attempt Attempt
Jota takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Jota scores, making it 2-1.
52
Attempt Attempt
Qazim Laci's header is saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Jota takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mihaila takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Vaclav Cerny takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Update Update
Junior Olaitan replaces Wilfred Onyinye Ndidi.
46
Attempt Attempt
Taylan Antalyali takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Jota is on, and Mustafa Erhan Hekimoglu is off.
46
Update Update
Vaclav Cerny replaces Cengiz Under.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ali Sowe takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
El Bilal Toure's right-footed shot is saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Orkun Kokcu's right-footed shot is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Emirhan Topcu attempts a header but misses the shot.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wilfred Onyinye Ndidi receives a yellow card.
36
Attempt Attempt
Cengiz Under takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
El Bilal Toure takes a shot with his head, but it's blocked.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cengiz Under receives a yellow card.
31
Update Update
Ali Sowe scores with a header.
27
Attempt Attempt
Ali Sowe takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mihaila takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Orkun Kokcu's right-footed shot is blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Ali Sowe scores with a left-footed shot.
15
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mihaila takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
14
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Emmanuel Agbadou receives a yellow card.
10
Attempt Attempt
Ali Sowe takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Qazim Laci's left-footed shot is blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Casper Hojer Nielsen takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
5
Attempt Attempt
Orkun Kokcu takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Michael Murillo takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

The 2-2 draw encapsulated a tale of two halves, with Rizespor's 2-0 halftime lead undone by their red card. Beşiktaş's superior possession and status as the stronger side enabled a composed comeback, underscoring resilience under pressure. This result's significant deviation highlights how disciplinary lapses can upend expectations, even against a favored opponent. Without xG, shot efficiency insights are limited, but the red card's distortion clearly bridged the halftime gap. Rizespor's early promise faded, while Beşiktaş's recovery preserved their unbeaten streak aspirations. Overall, the match demonstrated football's volatility driven by key events.

Rizespor vs Beşiktaş preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Super Lig, Türkiye View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Dan A

Dan A creates clear football match previews built around team form, performance trends, and practical pre-match insights.