Rio Ave vs Sporting CP Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube Mon, 11 May - 7:15 PM
Liga Portugal
Rio Ave RAFC
1 Winner 4
Sporting CP SCP
Full Time Mon, 11 May 7:15 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Diogo Bezerra - 12'
Goal
|
Goal
Geovany Quenda - 90'
Francisco Trincão - 66'
Gustavo Mancha - 42' (Own Goal)
Luis Suárez - 35' (P)
Francisco Petrasso 52' Second yellow card
Ryan 85' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Sporting CP delivered a commanding 1-4 victory over Rio Ave in a match marked by significant disciplinary issues for the home side. Rio Ave took an early lead but trailed 1-2 at halftime after Sporting CP's response. The second half saw Rio Ave reduced to nine men following two red cards, allowing Sporting CP to dominate possession at 64% and convert opportunities efficiently. Despite the final scoreline, pre-match expectations heavily favored Sporting CP, with a notable 21.5% deviation in their performance level classified as significant. The game's structure shifted dramatically post-red cards, aligning with adjustments for red card distortion. Rio Ave's 36% possession reflected their struggle, while Sporting CP capitalized without overperforming relative to efficiency norms. This result reinforces Sporting CP's status as the stronger team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match structure deviated significantly with a 21.5% deviation level favoring Sporting CP.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without provided data.
  • Event impact: Two red cards to Rio Ave altered game dynamics in the second half.
  • Red card distortion: Red cards caused clear distortion, listed as key second-half adjustment.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Ferreira Gonçalves

Portugal
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Ribeiro

1st Assistant

Portugal

M. da Silva Martins

2nd Assistant

Portugal

D. Araújo

4th Official

Portugal

League averages

Liga Portugal Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.01
Yellow cards / match 4.38
Red cards / match 0.16
Penalties / match 0.37
Rio Ave S. Silaidopoulos
S. Silaidopoulos
VS
Sporting CP R. Gomes Borges
R. Gomes Borges
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.29
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 71 L
AVS Rank: 60 D
Santa Clara Rank: 68 W
Alverca Rank: 67 L
Estoril Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 72 W
Tondela Rank: 59 D
AVS Rank: 55 D
Benfica Rank: 86 L
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Santa Clara Rank: 68 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 7 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rio Ave
7.36%
Draw
14.16%
Away Sporting CP
78.48%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rio Ave
+7.12%
Draw
+12.24%
Sporting CP
-19.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.95
88.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rio Ave
Sporting CP
Power Score
63.95
88.48
League Position
13
2
Global Rank
370
17

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rio Ave — Opponent-weighted form score
Sporting CP — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rio Ave Sporting CP

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rio Ave

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sporting CP

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rio Ave ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting CP
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.33
30.47
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.47
38.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rio Ave — Efficiency Index
vs
Sporting CP — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rio Ave
Sporting CP
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rio Ave ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sporting CP
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rio Ave Sporting CP
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rio Ave Sporting CP
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rio Ave
Sporting CP
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rio Ave
vs
Sporting CP
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rio Ave Sporting CP
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rio Ave 0.33
Sporting CP 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rio Ave Sporting CP
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rio Ave 0.06
Sporting CP 0.03
Rio Ave
Sporting CP
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SCP had peak pressure around 71'.
  • RAFC started the game with stronger pressure.
RAFC Pressure SCP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SCP reached the top pressure at 71' (99.19).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rio Ave RAFC Home
35 matches
Sporting CP SCP Away
Match Record
4
Wins
24
7
Draws
7
24
Losses
4
Goals
26
Goals Scored
68
68
Goals Conceded
26
-42
Goal Difference
+42

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:03:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. Miszta
Poland
1 C. Miszta
M. Vrousai
Substitution
Greece
17 M. Vrousai
F. Petrasso
Argentina
23 F. Petrasso
G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
N. Abby
Substitution
England
6 N. Abby
T. Nikitscher
Hungary
44 T. Nikitscher
R. da Silva Pae
Brazil
8 R. da Silva Pae
D. Bezerra de Oliveira
Substitution
Brazil
7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
J. Miller Blesa
Spain
11 J. Miller Blesa
D. Špikić
Substitution
Croatia
18 D. Špikić
T. Folgado Monteiro
Substitution
Portugal
9 T. Folgado Monteiro
Pitch
R. Dantas da Silva
Portugal
1 R. Dantas da Silva
M. Araújo Vilches
Uruguay
20 M. Araújo Vilches
G. Inácio
Portugal
25 G. Inácio
O. Diomande
Ivory Coast
26 O. Diomande
E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
Portugal
72 E. Quaresma Coimbra Simões
H. Morita
Substitution
Japan
5 H. Morita
D. Santos Bragança
Substitution
Portugal
23 D. Santos Bragança
P. Pereira Gonçalves
Substitution
Portugal
8 P. Pereira Gonçalves
F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
Portugal
17 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
L. Lira dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
31 L. Lira dos Santos
L. Suárez Charris
Substitution
Colombia
97 L. Suárez Charris

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 07:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube
Capacity :
12815
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Pedro Ribeiro
João António Ferreira Gonçalves
Miguel Ângelo da Silva Martins
Diogo Araújo

Statistics

Possession
RAFC
40%
SCP
60%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 4
2 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 16
36 Dangerous attacks 70
36 Possession 64
5 Corners 6
7 Free kicks 8
5 Yellow Cards 2
2 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

13 Dribble Attempts 21
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 52
60 Ball Safe 57
11 Throwins 11
8 Successful Dribbles 11
7 Goal Kicks 5
5 Successful Headers 2
1 Assists 2
0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 5
7 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

48 Attacks 100
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

245 Successful Passes 486
45 Long Passes 34
299 Passes 535
9 Key Passes 13
82 Successful Passes Percentage 91
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 62
25 Successful Long Passes 21

Defensive

15 Tackles 11
6 Interceptions 2
2 Saves 2
34 Duels Won 32

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 14
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

9 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Starting XI ▼

1
Cezary Miszta
Cezary Miszta Goalkeeper
6
Nelson Abbey
Nelson Abbey Defender
77
Omar Richards
Omar Richards
Defender72'
17
Marios Vrousai
Marios Vrousai Defender
20
João Tomé
João Tomé
Defender64'
23
Francisco Petrasso
Francisco Petrasso Defender
39
Gustavo Mancha
Gustavo Mancha Defender
7
Diogo Bezerra
Diogo Bezerra Midfielder
5
Andreas Ntoi
Andreas Ntoi
Defender73'
8
Ryan
Ryan Midfielder
11
Jalen Blesa
Jalen Blesa Midfielder
18
Dario Spikic
Dario Spikic Midfielder
19
Antonis Papakanellos
Antonis Papakanellos
Midfielder73'
44
Tamás Nikitscher
Tamás Nikitscher Midfielder
9
Tamble Monteiro
Tamble Monteiro Attacker
32
Jakub Brabec
Jakub Brabec
Defender55'
Referee : João António Ferreira Gonçalves

Starting XI ▼

1
Rui Silva
Rui Silva Goalkeeper
20
Maxi Araújo
Maxi Araújo Defender
25
Gonçalo Inácio
Gonçalo Inácio Defender
26
Ousmane Diomande
Ousmane Diomande Defender
72
Eduardo Quaresma
Eduardo Quaresma Defender
5
Hidemasa Morita
Hidemasa Morita Midfielder
7
Geovany Quenda
Geovany Quenda
Midfielder65'
8
Pedro Gonçalves
Pedro Gonçalves Midfielder
73
Eduardo Felicíssimo
Eduardo Felicíssimo
Midfielder82'
17
Francisco Trincão
Francisco Trincão Midfielder
23
Daniel Bragança
Daniel Bragança Midfielder
14
Giorgi Kochorashvili
Giorgi Kochorashvili
Midfielder82'
31
Luís Guilherme
Luís Guilherme Midfielder
10
Geny Catamo
Geny Catamo
Midfielder64'
97
Luis Suárez
Luis Suárez Attacker
90
Rafael Nel
Rafael Nel
Attacker90+1'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Rafael Nel → Luis Suárez
10th Substitution
90'
Event
Geovany Quenda
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Ryan
Foul / 2nd Yellow/red Card
85'
Event
Ryan
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
83'
82'
Event
Eduardo Felicíssimo → Pedro Gonçalves
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Giorgi Kochorashvili → Daniel Bragança
9th Substitution
Event
Antonis Papakanellos → Dario Spikic
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Andreas Ntoi → Diogo Bezerra
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Omar Richards → Nelson Abbey
5th Substitution
72'
66'
Event
Francisco Trincão
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
65'
Event
Geovany Quenda → Hidemasa Morita
4th Substitution
Event
João Tomé → Marios Vrousai
3rd Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Geny Catamo → Luís Guilherme
2nd Substitution
Event
Jakub Brabec → Tamble Monteiro
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Francisco Petrasso
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
52'
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Gustavo Mancha
Left foot shot / 1st Own Goal
35'
Event
Luis Suárez
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Francisco Petrasso
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
34'
32'
Event
Ousmane Diomande
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Luis Suárez
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Diogo Bezerra
1st Yellowcard
13'
Event
Diogo Bezerra
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
12'

Match Commentary

65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Lisbon: Geny Catamo replaces Luis Guilherme.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: João Tomé replaces Marios Vrousai.
63
Attempt Attempt
Luis Suárez from Sporting Lisbon missed a header from the center of the box. The assist came from Maxi Araújo's cross.
63
Attempt Attempt
Luis Suárez had a missed chance for Sporting Lisbon, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went close and missed. The assist came from Luis Guilherme.
62
Corner Corner
Sporting Lisbon is awarded a corner after Gustavo Mancha concedes.
61
Attempt Attempt
Luis Guilherme's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Daniel Bragança.
61
Corner Corner
Sporting Lisbon wins a corner after Nelson Abbey concedes.
59
Corner Corner
Pote from Sporting Lisbon missed a chance with a left-footed shot from the center of the box. The assist came from Luis Suárez following a corner.
58
Corner Corner
Sporting Lisbon wins a corner after Gustavo Mancha concedes.
56
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Pote from Sporting Lisbon takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, which is saved by Cezary Pawet Miszta in the top center of the goal for Rio Ave.
56
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Cezary Pawet Miszta from Rio Ave.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: Jakub Brabec replaces Tamble Monteiro.
53
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon.
52
Update Update
Foul committed by Francisco Petrasso of Rio Ave.
52
Update Update
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in the attacking area.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Francisco Petrasso of Rio Ave receives a second yellow card for a foul.
51
Attempt Attempt
Jalen Blesa from Rio Ave had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box just to the left. The assist came from Diogo Bezerra, who provided the cross.
49
Attempt Attempt
Jalen Blesa's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Ryan Guilherme provided the assist.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Francisco Petrasso of Rio Ave.
48
Update Update
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after Trincão concedes.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Rio Ave trailing 1-2 to Sporting Lisbon.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Rio Ave 1, Sporting Lisbon 2.
45
Attempt Attempt
Dario Spikic from Rio Ave had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box but missing the target. The assist came from Jalen Blesa's cross.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after Eduardo Quaresma concedes.
45
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Tamble Monteiro of Rio Ave heads the ball from inside the six-yard box on the left side, but Rui Silva, the goalkeeper for Sporting Lisbon, makes a save in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Diogo Bezerra with a cross.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Tamble Monteiro of Rio Ave shoots with his right foot from the left side of the box, but Rui Silva, the goalkeeper for Sporting Lisbon, makes a save in the center of the goal. The assist was provided by Dario Spikic.
44
Attempt Attempt
Luis Suárez from Sporting Lisbon missed a chance with a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, hitting the left side.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Gustavo Mancha scores an own goal for Rio Ave. The match score is now Rio Ave 1, Sporting Lisbon 2.
40
Update Update
Ryan Guilherme from Rio Ave won a free kick in defense.
37
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon.
36
Update Update
Marios Vrousai of Rio Ave won a free kick in an attacking position.
35
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Luis Suárez scores for Sporting Lisbon with a right-footed shot into the left corner. The match remains 1-1.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Francisco Petrasso of Rio Ave receives a yellow card for a foul.
33
Update Update
Francisco Petrasso of Rio Ave concedes a penalty after a foul in the penalty area.
33
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Sporting Lisbon as Luis Suárez is fouled in the penalty area.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ousmane Diomande of Sporting Lisbon receives a yellow card.
32
Update Update
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon has fallen to the ground, but the referee considers it simulation.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon receives a yellow card.
31
Corner Corner
Sporting Lisbon wins a corner after Marios Vrousai concedes.
30
Update Update
Dario Spikic commits a handball for Rio Ave.
29
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon.
28
Update Update
Dario Spikic from Rio Ave misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but sending the ball high. The assist came from Jalen Blesa.
25
Update Update
Hidemasa Morita from Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in an attacking position.
24
Update Update
Tamble Monteiro of Rio Ave won a free kick in defense.
23
Corner Corner
Sporting Lisbon wins a corner after Diogo Bezerra concedes.
22
Update Update
Daniel Bragança from Sporting Lisbon won a free kick on the right wing.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Tamble Monteiro of Rio Ave.
20
Attempt Attempt
Luis Suárez's shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Luis Guilherme.
17
Attempt Attempt
Luis Suárez from Sporting Lisbon had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but it went high and wide to the left. The assist came from Pote.
13
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Diogo Bezerra of Rio Ave receives a yellow card for excessive celebration.
12
Update Update
Marios Vrousai of Rio Ave won a free kick in defense.
12
Update Update
Pote fouls an opponent for Sporting Lisbon.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rio Ave leads 1-0 against Sporting Lisbon. Diogo Bezerra scores with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box into the left corner, assisted by Tamble Monteiro.
10
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Tamble Monteiro from Rio Ave shot with his left foot from outside the box but missed to the left.
9
Attempt Attempt
Pote's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Luis Guilherme provided the assist.
9
Corner Corner
Sporting Lisbon wins a corner, conceded by Nelson Abbey.
8
Attempt Attempt
Luis Guilherme's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Pote provided the assist.
6
Attempt Attempt
Pote from Sporting Lisbon had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box. Trincão provided the assist.
5
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Tamble Monteiro of Rio Ave heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard box but misses. The assist came from Jalen Blesa's cross.
4
Update Update
Tamble Monteiro of Rio Ave won a free kick in an attacking position.
4
Update Update
Ousmane Diomande of Sporting Lisbon committed a foul.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after a concession by Luis Suárez.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after a foul by Ousmane Diomande.
2
Attempt Attempt
Dario Spikic's shot from outside the box is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Sporting CP's 1-4 win over Rio Ave was decisively shaped by the home team's two red cards, enabling total control after a 1-2 halftime lead. With 64% possession, the visitors exploited the numerical advantage without efficiency anomalies. The significant structural deviation of 21.5% underscores Sporting CP's overperformance relative to baselines, though market alignment confirms pre-match favoritism. Red card distortion dominated second-half adjustments, preventing a fair efficiency comparison. This outcome solidifies Sporting CP's superiority, highlighting Rio Ave's self-inflicted vulnerabilities in a lopsided affair.

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