Rio Ave vs Alverca Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube Sat, 4 Apr - 5:00 PM
Liga Portugal
Rio Ave RAFC
1 Winner 2
Alverca ALV
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Jalen Blesa - 59'
Goal
|
Goal
Sandro Lima - 21'
Figueiredo - 5'

CONTEXT

The match has finished, with Alverca securing a 2-1 victory over Rio Ave at full-time. The visiting side took control early on, establishing a comfortable 2-0 lead by the halftime whistle. Rio Ave managed to pull one goal back in the second half but ultimately fell short. Despite suffering the home defeat, Rio Ave held a narrow advantage in possession, controlling 52 percent of the ball compared to Alverca's 48 percent. Pre-match expectations were tightly contested, giving Rio Ave a 34.2 percent win probability and Alverca a slight edge at 37.1 percent, alongside a 28.7 percent chance of a draw. Because Alverca entered the fixture as marginal favorites, the final outcome completely aligned with the pre-match market. Even so, Alverca generated a significant positive deviation of 62.9 percent to claim the away triumph. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the result was consistent with the underlying chance creation. However, the overall finishing efficiency shift was strictly in line with the match dynamics. Additionally, the game featured zero red cards, allowing the 2-1 result to unfold naturally without major disciplinary disruptions.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Alverca showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Gonçalves Rodrigues

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Rodrigues Soares

2nd Assistant

A. Sousa

1st Assistant

Rio Ave S. Silaidopoulos
S. Silaidopoulos
VS
Alverca C. Dias de Castro
C. Dias de Castro
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estoril Rank: 70 W
Estrela Amadora Rank: 59 W
Tondela Rank: 60 W
Famalicão Rank: 73 D
Porto Rank: 88 L
Moreirense Rank: 67 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 D
AVS Rank: 55 D
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 71 D
Santa Clara Rank: 66 D
Tondela Rank: 60 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rio Ave
34.2%
Draw
28.71%
Away Alverca
37.09%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.09
56.66
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rio Ave
Alverca
Power Score
64.09
56.66
League Position
11
10
Global Rank
348
304

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rio Ave — Opponent-weighted form score
Alverca — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rio Ave Alverca

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rio Ave

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Alverca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rio Ave ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Alverca
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.25
34.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.17
41.25
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rio Ave +0.70 Efficiency Index
vs
Alverca -0.70 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rio Ave
Alverca
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rio Ave ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Alverca
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rio Ave Alverca
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rio Ave Alverca
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rio Ave
Alverca
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rio Ave
vs
Alverca
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rio Ave Alverca
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rio Ave 0.26
Alverca 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rio Ave Alverca
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rio Ave 0.04
Alverca 0.01
Rio Ave
Alverca
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rio Ave RAFC Home
1 matches
Alverca ALV Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:06:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
E. van der Gouw
Netherlands
99 E. van der Gouw
M. Vrousai
Greece
17 M. Vrousai
J. Brabec
Czech Republic
32 J. Brabec
G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
39 G. Teixeira Lopes da Conceição
N. Abby
Substitution
England
6 N. Abby
T. Nikitscher
Substitution
Hungary
44 T. Nikitscher
A. Ntoi
Substitution
Greece
5 A. Ntoi
D. Bezerra de Oliveira
Brazil
7 D. Bezerra de Oliveira
O. Pohlmann
Substitution
Germany
80 O. Pohlmann
D. Špikić
Substitution
Croatia
18 D. Špikić
J. Miller Blesa
Spain
11 J. Miller Blesa
Pitch
Matheus Mendes
Brazil
31 Matheus Mendes
N. Meupiyou Menadjou
France
33 N. Meupiyou Menadjou
S. Gómez Solà
Spain
5 S. Gómez Solà
K. Marques Naves
Brazil
4 K. Marques Naves
I. James
Nigeria
12 I. James
L. Oliveira dos Santos
Brazil
18 L. Oliveira dos Santos
R. Simião Gomes
Substitution
Brazil
26 R. Simião Gomes
N. Zoubdi Touaizi
Morocco
2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
Chiquinho
Substitution
Portugal
10 Chiquinho
S. Cesar
Substitution
Brazil
91 S. Cesar
L. Figueiredo dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
20 L. Figueiredo dos Santos

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube
Capacity :
12815
Attendance :
2284
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
David Moisés Rodrigues Soares
Anzhony Francisco Gonçalves Rodrigues
Andreia Sousa

Statistics

Possession
RAFC
50%
ALV
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 6
69 Dangerous attacks 48
52 Possession 48
8 Corners 4
6 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Successful Dribbles 10
1 Assists 2
27 Throwins 20
5 Goal Kicks 13
14 Successful Headers 12
17 Dribble Attempts 19
24 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
68 Ball Safe 89
13 Goal Attempts 10
0 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

3 Counter Attacks 4
112 Attacks 87
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

13 Key Passes 12
38 Long Passes 52
437 Passes 404
355 Successful Passes 335
81 Successful Passes Percentage 83
15 Successful Long Passes 25
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48

Defensive

4 Saves 4
15 Tackles 27
7 Interceptions 11
39 Duels Won 56

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 17
4 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

7 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Anzhony Francisco Gonçalves Rodrigues

Starting XI ▼

99
Ennio Van Der Gouw
Ennio Van Der Gouw Goalkeeper
6
Nelson Abbey
Nelson Abbey Defender
77
Omar Richards
Omar Richards
Defender68'
17
Marios Vrousai
Marios Vrousai Defender
32
Jakub Brabec
Jakub Brabec Defender
39
Gustavo Mancha
Gustavo Mancha Defender
5
Andreas Ntoi
Andreas Ntoi Midfielder
54
Georgios Liavas
Georgios Liavas
Midfielder81'
7
Diogo Bezerra
Diogo Bezerra Midfielder
18
Dario Spikic
Dario Spikic Midfielder
20
João Tomé
João Tomé
Defender81'
44
Tamás Nikitscher
Tamás Nikitscher Midfielder
8
Ryan
Ryan
Midfielder42'
80
Ole Pohlmann
Ole Pohlmann Midfielder
9
Tamble Monteiro
Tamble Monteiro
Attacker68'
11
Jalen Blesa
Jalen Blesa Attacker
Referee : Anzhony Francisco Gonçalves Rodrigues

Starting XI ▼

31
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira Goalkeeper
4
Kaiky Marques Naves
Kaiky Marques Naves Defender
5
Sergi Gómez Solà
Sergi Gómez Solà Defender
33
Bastien Meupiyou
Bastien Meupiyou Defender
2
Nabil Touaizi
Nabil Touaizi Midfielder
12
Isaac James
Isaac James Midfielder
18
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos Midfielder
26
Rhaldney
Rhaldney Midfielder
9
Marko Milovanović
Marko Milovanović
Attacker74'
10
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira Attacker
82
Diogo Spencer
Diogo Spencer
Defender86'
20
Figueiredo
Figueiredo Attacker
11
Cédric Jean-Luc Nuozzi
Cédric Jean-Luc Nuozzi
Attacker69'
91
Sandro Lima
Sandro Lima Attacker
17
Vasco Moreira
Vasco Moreira
Midfielder74'

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Diogo Spencer → Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
9th Substitution
Event
João Tomé → Dario Spikic
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Georgios Liavas → Andreas Ntoi
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Jalen Blesa
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
74'
Event
Sandro César Cordovil de Lima
3rd Yellowcard
74'
Event
Vasco Moreira → Sandro Lima
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Marko Milovanović → Rhaldney
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Sandro Lima
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Cédric Jean-Luc Nuozzi → Figueiredo
4th Substitution
Event
Omar Richards → Nelson Abbey
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Tamble Monteiro → Ole Pohlmann
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Jalen Blesa
Header / 3rd Goal
59'
Event
Marios Vrousai
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
56'
1ST-HALF
Event
Ryan → Tamás Nikitscher
1st Substitution
42'
21'
Event
Sandro Lima
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
5'
Event
Figueiredo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Guilherme from Rio Ave had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball went high. Marios Vrousai provided the assist.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Rio Ave losing 1-2 to Alverca.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Marios Vrousai from Rio Ave shot with his right foot from the center of the box.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Ryan Guilherme from Rio Ave won a free kick in the attacking area.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Guilherme from Rio Ave had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball went to the left.
87
Update Update
Lincoln won a free kick in defense against Alverca.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alverca: Diogo Spencer replaces Chiquinho.
85
Update Update
Tamble Monteiro's header from the center of the box is blocked. Diogo Bezerra provided the assist with a cross.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after a concession by Marezi.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after Kaiky Naves concedes.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after Matheus Mendes concedes.
83
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Marios Vrousai of Rio Ave takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Matheus Mendes of Alverca saves it in the right corner.
82
Attempt Attempt
Marios Vrousai from Rio Ave misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes high and wide to the right. The assist was provided by Ryan Guilherme.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: Georgios Liavas replaces Andreas Ntoi.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: João Tomé replaces Dario Spikic.
80
Update Update
Marezi from Alverca is flagged for offside.
78
Attempt Attempt
Marios Vrousai from Rio Ave missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box and missing to the left. The assist was provided by Jalen Blesa.
77
Attempt Attempt
Cédric Nuozzi from Alverca missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box. The assist came from Isaac James, who provided a cross after a fast break.
76
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Jalen Blesa from Rio Ave takes a left-footed shot from a difficult position on the left, but Matheus Mendes from Alverca saves it in the right corner. The assist was provided by Dario Spikic.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alverca: Marezi replaces Rhaldney.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alverca: Vasco Moreira replaces Sandro Lima.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jalen Blesa of Rio Ave receives a yellow card.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sandro Lima from Alverca receives a yellow card.
71
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Chiquinho from Alverca.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after Chiquinho concedes.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Alverca: Cédric Nuozzi replaces Figueiredo.
69
Attempt Attempt
Lincoln's shot from outside the box is blocked. Isaac James provided the assist.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: Omar Richards replaces Nelson Abbey.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: Tamble Monteiro replaces Olé Pohlmann.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after a concession by Kaiky Naves.
66
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Andreas Ntoi of Rio Ave heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Olé Pohlmann from Rio Ave had a right-footed shot from the center of the box that was blocked.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after Sergi Gómez concedes.
62
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Diogo Bezerra from Rio Ave shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high after a fast break.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alverca after Jakub Brabec concedes.
59
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rio Ave 1, Alverca 2. Jalen Blesa scores for Rio Ave with a header from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Nelson Abbey's cross.
58
Attempt Attempt
Nabil Touaizi from Alverca had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but the shot went high and wide to the right. Chiquinho provided the assist.
56
Update Update
Isaac James from Alverca was awarded a free kick on the left wing.
56
Update Update
Isaac James from Alverca won a free kick on the left wing.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marios Vrousai of Rio Ave receives a yellow card for a foul.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Figueiredo from Alverca shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but it goes high. Isaac James provided the assist.
54
Update Update
Figueiredo fouls a player from Alverca.
54
Update Update
Dario Spikic of Rio Ave won a free kick in defense.
52
Update Update
Sandro Lima from Alverca committed a foul.
52
Update Update
Gustavo Mancha from Rio Ave won a free kick in an attacking position.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after a concession by Bastien Meupiyou.
49
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Olé Pohlmann from Rio Ave has his left-foot shot from outside the box blocked.
48
Update Update
Ryan Guilherme from Rio Ave won a free kick in an attacking position.
48
Update Update
Rhaldney fouled Alverca.
48
Attempt Attempt
Dario Spikic from Rio Ave missed a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Ryan Guilherme.
47
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Figueiredo from Alverca takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top right corner by Ennio van der Gouw from Rio Ave, with the assist coming from Lincoln.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Rio Ave 0, Alverca 2.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alverca after a concession by Ennio van der Gouw.
45
Update Update
Bastien Meupiyou of Alverca won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Jalen Blesa from Rio Ave won a free kick in defense.
45
Attempt Attempt
Chiquinho from Alverca attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved by goalkeeper Ennio van der Gouw in the center of the goal for Rio Ave.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Rio Ave 0, Alverca 2.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Rio Ave after a concession by Nabil Touaizi.
42
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Rio Ave: Ryan Guilherme replaces Tamás Nikitscher.
40
Attempt Attempt
Rhaldney's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Sandro Lima provided the assist.
40
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Lincoln's shot with his left foot from outside the box is saved in the left corner by Ennio van der Gouw. The assist came from Nabil Touaizi.
39
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Lincoln's shot with the left foot from outside the box is saved in the top center of the goal by Ennio van der Gouw of Rio Ave, assisted by Isaac James.
39
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Lincoln's shot with the left foot from outside the box is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Jalen Blesa of Rio Ave heads the ball from the center of the box.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alverca after a concession by Nelson Abbey.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Alverca after Jakub Brabec concedes.
30
Update Update
Olé Pohlmann fouled a player from Rio Ave.
30
Attempt Attempt
Marios Vrousai from Rio Ave has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
30
Update Update
Figueiredo from Alverca won a free kick in defense.
30
Attempt Attempt
Diogo Bezerra's shot from outside the box is blocked. Nelson Abbey provided the assist.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Diogo Bezerra of Rio Ave.
26
Update Update
Matheus Mendes from Alverca won a free kick in defense.
21
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alverca leads 2-0 with Sandro Lima scoring from the right side of the box with a right-footed shot.
19
Attempt Attempt
Sandro Lima from Alverca had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box. Isaac James provided the assist with a cross.
15
Update Update
Jalen Blesa of Rio Ave won a free kick in defense.
14
Update Update
Nabil Touaizi from Alverca won a free kick on the right wing.
14
Update Update
Nabil Touaizi from Alverca won a free kick on the right wing.
12
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Olé Pohlmann of Rio Ave takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Matheus Mendes of Alverca. The assist was provided by Marios Vrousai.
10
Update Update
Alverca is called offside. Figueiredo is in an offside position.
8
Update Update
Alverca is called offside. Figueiredo is in an offside position.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alverca takes the lead 1-0 against Rio Ave. Figueiredo scores with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the top left corner, assisted by Lincoln.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Andreas Ntoi of Rio Ave.
4
Update Update
Isaac James from Alverca won a free kick in an attacking position.
2
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Isaac James from Alverca shot with his left foot from inside the six-yard box, but it went high to the left. The assist came from Nabil Touaizi, who provided the cross.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Alverca exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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