Rijeka vs Vukovar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion HNK Rijeka Fri, 8 May - 6:00 PM
1. HNL
Rijeka Rijeka
3 Winner 0
Vukovar Vukovar
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Toni Fruk - 90+4'
Stjepan Radeljic - 50'
Daniel Adu-Adjei - 41'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Rijeka delivered a commanding 3-0 win against Vukovar in this matchup, establishing a 1-0 lead by halftime and adding two more goals after the break. Home side Rijeka controlled 66% of possession compared to Vukovar's 34%, reflecting their status as the stronger team. The final score aligned closely with pre-match structural expectations, showing a minimal deviation of 2.1% in Rijeka's favor. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half adjustments or knockout implications. Efficiency metrics remained in line with overall performance patterns. Without available xG data, direct chance quality assessments are limited, but the result matched the anticipated dominance. Vukovar struggled to create meaningful threats, underscoring Rijeka's defensive solidity and clinical finishing.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Structural deviation measured 2.1%, classified as minimal for Rijeka.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with performance expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true with the final outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unevaluable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No major events like red cards influenced the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Čulina

Croatia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Kolarević

1st Assistant

Croatia

Filip Cindrić

4th Official

Croatia

V. Podrug

2nd Assistant

Croatia

League averages

1. HNL Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.33
Yellow cards / match 3.18
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.35
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
VS
Vukovar T. Stipić
T. Stipić
1.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.85
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 64 W
Hajduk Split Rank: 71 D
Varaždin Rank: 65 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 D
Osijek Rank: 63 L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: 64 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 D
Gorica Rank: 61 L
Istra 1961 Rank: 63 W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 81 L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rijeka
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Vukovar
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.63
48.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rijeka
Vukovar
Power Score
71.63
48.67
League Position
3
10
Global Rank
172
618

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Vukovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rijeka Vukovar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vukovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vukovar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.12
26.47
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.47
32.12
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rijeka +0.56 Efficiency Index
vs
Vukovar -0.56 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Vukovar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vukovar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rijeka Vukovar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rijeka Vukovar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Vukovar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rijeka
vs
Vukovar
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rijeka Vukovar
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rijeka 0.20
Vukovar 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rijeka Vukovar
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rijeka 0.00
Vukovar 0.04
Rijeka
Vukovar
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rijeka had peak pressure around 52'.
  • Rijeka started the game with stronger pressure.
Rijeka Pressure Vukovar Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rijeka reached the top pressure at 52' (70.10).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rijeka Rijeka Home
3 matches
Vukovar Vukovar Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
6
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:01:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Zlomislić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
13 M. Zlomislić
A. Oreč
Croatia
22 A. Oreč
A. Majstorović
Croatia
45 A. Majstorović
S. Radeljić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 S. Radeljić
M. Devetak
Serbia
34 M. Devetak
B. Pavić
Substitution
Croatia
66 B. Pavić
A. Barco Del Solar
Peru
55 A. Barco Del Solar
J. Lasickas
Substitution
Lithuania
23 J. Lasickas
T. Dantas
Substitution
Portugal
26 T. Dantas
A. Gojak
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Gojak
D. Adu-Adjei
Substitution
England
18 D. Adu-Adjei
Pitch
A. Đaković
Croatia
42 A. Đaković
K. Cabrajic
Croatia
20 K. Cabrajic
V. Čaić
Croatia
13 V. Čaić
N. Vlasenko
Switzerland
5 N. Vlasenko
M. Živković
Croatia
14 M. Živković
J. Gurlica
Croatia
35 J. Gurlica
E. Shabani
Substitution
Albania
77 E. Shabani
L. Banovec
Croatia
28 L. Banovec
R. Gonzales
Substitution
Colombia
10 R. Gonzales
?. Butić
Substitution
27 ?. Butić
J. Puljić
Substitution
Croatia
21 J. Puljić

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion HNK Rijeka
Capacity :
8279
Attendance :
5011
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Dario Kolarević
Filip Cindrić
Vinko Podrug
Ante Čulina

Statistics

Possession
Rijeka
66%
Vukovar
34%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 1
17 Shots 7
84 Dangerous attacks 40
66 Possession 34
9 Corners 1
9 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
11 Dribble Attempts 12
29 Throwins 24
2 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Goal Kicks 6
6 Successful Dribbles 3
3 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

135 Attacks 91
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 16
14 Key Passes 3
37 Successful Long Passes 6
403 Successful Passes 169
465 Passes 236
63 Long Passes 37
87 Successful Passes Percentage 72

Defensive

17 Tackles 14
1 Saves 6
5 Interceptions 9
44 Duels Won 41

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 1
24 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

5 Offsides 0
13 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

13
Martin Zlomislic
Martin Zlomislic Goalkeeper
6
Stjepan Radeljic
Stjepan Radeljic Defender
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Defender
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Defender
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Defender
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Midfielder
24
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Christian Ouguehi Legbo
Attacker72'
23
Justas Lasickas
Justas Lasickas Midfielder
10
Toni Fruk
Toni Fruk
Midfielder55'
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
19
Samuele Vignato
Samuele Vignato
Attacker72'
55
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar
Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar Midfielder
66
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Midfielder
20
Merveil Ndockyt
Merveil Ndockyt
Midfielder87'
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker
9
Duje Cop
Duje Cop
Attacker87'
Referee : Ante Čulina

Starting XI ▼

42
Antonio Đaković
Antonio Đaković Goalkeeper
5
Nikita Vlasenko
Nikita Vlasenko Defender
13
Vito Caic
Vito Caic Defender
14
Moreno Zivkovic
Moreno Zivkovic Defender
20
Kristijan Cabrajic
Kristijan Cabrajic Defender
10
Robin González
Robin González Midfielder
24
Josip Špoljarić
Josip Špoljarić
Midfielder76'
27
Simun Butic
Simun Butic Midfielder
—
Simun Butic
76'
28
Lovro Banovec
Lovro Banovec Midfielder
35
Jakov Gurlica
Jakov Gurlica Midfielder
77
Eniss Shabani
Eniss Shabani Midfielder
6
Jakov Biljan
Jakov Biljan
Midfielder76'
21
Jakov Puljic
Jakov Puljic Attacker
25
Niko Pajvančić
Niko Pajvančić
Attacker90+2'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Toni Fruk
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+4'
90+2'
Event
Niko Pajvančić → Jakov Puljic
9th Substitution
Event
Duje Cop → Daniel Adu-Adjei
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Merveil Ndockyt → Branko Pavic
8th Substitution
87'
76'
Event
Jakov Biljan → Eniss Shabani
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Josip Špoljarić → Robin González
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Danijel Vinković → Simun Butic
6th Substitution
Event
Ante Majstorovic
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Christian Ouguehi Legbo → Amer Gojak
2nd Substitution
72'
Event
Samuele Vignato → Tiago Dantas
3rd Substitution
72'
66'
Event
Jakov Gurlica
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Toni Fruk → Justas Lasickas
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Stjepan Radeljic
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
50'
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
Moreno Zivkovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Header / 1st Goal
41'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The score is now 3-0.
90
Update Update
Niko Pajvancic is on, and Jakov Puljic is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jakov Gurlica takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jakov Gurlica takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Toni Fruk scores with a right-footed shot.
87
Update Update
Duje Cop comes on for Daniel Adu Adjei.
87
Update Update
Merveille Ndockyt is on, and Branko Pavic is off.
86
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Adu Adjei takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Samuele Vignato takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Toni Fruk takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Jakov Gurlica's right-footed shot is blocked.
76
Update Update
Jakov Biljan is on, and Eniss Shabani is off.
76
Update Update
Danijel Vinkovic comes on for Simun Butic.
76
Update Update
Josip Spoljaric comes on for Robin Gonzalez.
73
Attempt Attempt
Christian Ouguehi Legbo takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
72
Update Update
Dimitri Legbo comes on for Amer Gojak.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Samuele Vignato comes on for Tiago Dantas.
66
Attempt Attempt
Toni Fruk's right-footed shot is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Adu Adjei's left-footed shot is blocked.
59
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Dantas takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
55
Update Update
Toni Fruk comes on for Justas Lasickas.
50
Attempt Attempt
Stjepan Radeljic scores with a left-footed shot.
49
Attempt Attempt
Amer Gojak takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Jakov Puljic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Update Update
Daniel Adu Adjei scores with a header.
39
Attempt Attempt
Simun Butic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
26
Update Update
Mladen Devetak's header is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Robin Gonzalez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Ante Majstorovic's header is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Kristijan Cabrajic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Amer Gojak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Adu Adjei takes a right-footed shot, but it hits the post.
1
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Adu Adjei takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Rijeka's 3-0 triumph over Vukovar exemplified their superiority, with 66% possession and a clean sheet highlighting defensive strength and attacking efficiency. The minimal 2.1% structural deviation confirmed the result stayed within expected parameters, while market alignment validated pre-match projections. Lacking xG figures limits deeper chance analysis, but the halftime 1-0 lead and second-half extension showed consistent control. Vukovar's low possession and goal drought exposed their limitations against a dominant opponent. This outcome reinforces Rijeka's form without disruptions from cards or adjustments.

Rijeka vs Vukovar preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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