Rijeka vs Osijek Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadion HNK Rijeka Sun, 12 Apr - 2:00 PM

1. HNL

Rijeka Rijeka

Osijek Osijek

Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 2:00 PM

Round 29 Regular Season

Nail Omerovic - 90+4'

Samuel Akere - 4'

CONTEXT

The match between Rijeka and Osijek is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-1 to the visitors. Osijek took the lead in the first half and successfully defended it after the break, securing a result that defied pre-match expectations. Forecasts had given Rijeka a 62.4 percent chance of victory while assigning Osijek just a 13.3 percent probability, yet the away side produced a significant deviation from those projections by claiming all three points. Rijeka controlled the ball for 74 percent of the match but generated no reward, while Osijek operated with only 26 percent possession and still found the decisive goal. No red cards were issued and no major disruptive events altered the flow. The efficiency shift stayed in line with broader patterns, though the final outcome did not align with the pre-match projection that had identified Rijeka as the stronger side. Osijek’s clinical first-half strike proved enough to produce an upset victory on the road.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Osijek showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

M. Erceg

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Jakšić

1st Assistant

I. Mihalj

2nd Assistant

F. Dragasevic

4th Official

V. Sánchez del Amo

T. Radotic

1.63

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.84

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

29 - 23 - 20

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Rijeka

62.43%

Draw

24.31%

Osijek

13.26%

Movement

Changes since opening

Rijeka

+62.24%

Draw

+16.98%

Osijek

-79.22%

Team Power Ranking

28.26

18.69

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Rijeka

Osijek

Power Score

28.26

18.69

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score

Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rijeka Osijek

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Osijek

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

34.46

29.04

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

29.04

34.46

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Rijeka +0.55 Efficiency Index

Osijek -0.55 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Rijeka

Osijek

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Osijek

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Rijeka Osijek

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Rijeka Osijek

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Rijeka

Osijek

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Rijeka

Osijek

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Rijeka Osijek

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Rijeka Osijek

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Rijeka

Osijek

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Rijeka had peak pressure around 39'.
Rijeka started the game with stronger pressure.

Rijeka Pressure Osijek Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Rijeka reached the top pressure at 39' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 72 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rijeka Rijeka Home

72 matches

Osijek Osijek Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+20

Goal Difference

-20

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:05:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

13 M. Zlomislić

28 T. Barišić

45 A. Majstorović

6 S. Radeljić

22 A. Oreč

26 T. Dantas

55 A. Barco Del Solar

24 C. Legbo Ouguehi

10 T. Fruk

14 A. Gojak

18 D. Adu-Adjei

31 M. Malenica

38 D. Čolina

5 J. Mersinaj

49 I. Kolarik

39 D. Bukvić

6 D. Mejía Moscoso

16 O. Petrusenko

98 M. Jovičić

11 N. Omerović

57 S. Akere

34 A. Matković

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 12, 2026, 02:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 29 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion HNK Rijeka

Capacity :

8279

Attendance :

4919

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Alen Jakšić

Ivan Mihalj

Filip Dragasevic

Mateo Erceg

Statistics

Possession

Rijeka

69%

Osijek

31%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2

1 Big Chances Created 0

12 Shots 4

110 Dangerous attacks 31

74 Possession 26

6 Corners 3

16 Free kicks 11

4 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Assists 1

0 Hit Woodwork 1

6 Goal Kicks 13

38 Throwins 16

4 Successful Dribbles 4

21 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67

19 Dribble Attempts 6

5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0

156 Attacks 60

Possession

513 Passes 190

56 Long Passes 58

432 Successful Passes 113

32 Successful Long Passes 21

57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36

84 Successful Passes Percentage 59

14 Key Passes 3

Defensive

5 Tackles 25

0 Saves 4

5 Interceptions 6

Build-up

37 Total Crosses 8

15 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

2 Offsides 0

11 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Mateo Erceg

Manager ▼

V. Sánchez del Amo Coach

Starting XI ▼

Martin Zlomislic Goalkeeper

Stjepan Radeljic Defender

Ante Majstorovic Defender

Alfonso Daniel Barco del Solar Defender

Toni Fruk Midfielder

Gabriel Rukavina

Attacker27'

Amer Gojak Midfielder

Ante Matej Juric

Attacker69'

Ante Orec Midfielder

Tornike Morchiladze

Midfielder69'

Christian Ouguehi Legbo Midfielder

Justas Lasickas

Defender69'

Tiago Dantas Midfielder

Teo Barišić Midfielder

Merveil Ndockyt

Midfielder13'

Daniel Adu-Adjei Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Merveil Ndockyt

Midfielder13'

Gabriel Rukavina

Attacker27'

Tornike Morchiladze

Midfielder69'

Ante Matej Juric

Attacker69'

Justas Lasickas

Defender69'

Bench ▼

Aleksa Todorović Goalkeeper

Mladen Devetak Defender

Anel Husic Defender

Noel Bodetic Defender

Dejan Petrovic Midfielder

Branko Pavic Midfielder

Duje Cop Attacker

Referee : Mateo Erceg