Rijeka vs Gorica Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion HNK Rijeka Sat, 23 May - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Rijeka Rijeka
2 Winner 0
Gorica Gorica
Full Time Sat, 23 May 2:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season
Amer Gojak - 84', 66'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Rijeka faced Gorica in a league encounter that concluded with a 2-0 victory for the home side. The match remained level at 0-0 through the first half before Rijeka asserted control after the break. Home possession reached 59 percent against the visitors 41 percent. No red cards were issued to either team throughout the contest. Rijeka entered as the stronger side and delivered the expected outcome. The result featured a significant deviation of 38.9 percent aligned to the home team. Market alignment held true based on pre-match indicators. Rijeka secured the win without major disruptions from disciplinary events or other factors.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Rijeka 2-0 Gorica. Rijeka showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match patterns.
  • xG alignment: No xG values were recorded to determine alignment.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals data remained unavailable for assessment.
  • Event impact: No notable events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion effects.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Strukan

Croatia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Janić

1st Assistant

Croatia

Dujo Sarić

2nd Assistant

Croatia

J. Titlić

4th Official

Croatia

League averages

1. HNL Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 25.08
Yellow cards / match 3.43
Red cards / match 0.08
Penalties / match 0.38
Rijeka V. Sánchez del Amo
V. Sánchez del Amo
VS
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
1.57
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.18
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: 64 D
Vukovar Rank: 57 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 64 W
Hajduk Split Rank: 73 D
Varaždin Rank: 67 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 82 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osijek Rank: 62 W
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 61 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 81 L
Istra 1961 Rank: 63 W
Vukovar Rank: 55 W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 64 L
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 4 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rijeka
61.09%
Draw
23.11%
Away Gorica
15.8%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rijeka
-36.77%
Draw
+21.19%
Gorica
+15.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.61
62.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rijeka
Gorica
Power Score
71.61
62.23
League Position
4
7
Global Rank
170
413

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rijeka — Opponent-weighted form score
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rijeka Gorica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rijeka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gorica
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.54
12.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
12.20
42.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rijeka +3.03 Efficiency Index
vs
Gorica -3.03 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Gorica
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rijeka ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gorica
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rijeka Gorica
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rijeka Gorica
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rijeka
Gorica
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rijeka
vs
Gorica
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rijeka Gorica
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rijeka 0.26
Gorica 0.08
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rijeka Gorica
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rijeka 0.00
Gorica 0.02
Rijeka
Gorica
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Rijeka had peak pressure around 83'.
  • Gorica started the game with stronger pressure.
Rijeka Pressure Gorica Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Rijeka reached the top pressure at 83' (80.67).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 31 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rijeka Rijeka Home
31 matches
Gorica Gorica Away
Match Record
16
Wins
11
4
Draws
4
11
Losses
16
Goals
41
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
41
+7
Goal Difference
-7

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:02:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Todorović
Serbia
99 A. Todorović
A. Oreč
Substitution
Croatia
22 A. Oreč
A. Majstorović
Croatia
45 A. Majstorović
N. Bodetic
Croatia
91 N. Bodetic
M. Devetak
Serbia
34 M. Devetak
B. Pavić
Croatia
66 B. Pavić
T. Dantas
Substitution
Portugal
26 T. Dantas
M. Ndockyt
Substitution
Republic of the Congo
20 M. Ndockyt
T. Fruk
Substitution
Croatia
10 T. Fruk
A. Gojak
Bosnia and Herzegovina
14 A. Gojak
A. Jurič
Substitution
Croatia
77 A. Jurič
Pitch
D. Matijaš
Croatia
71 D. Matijaš
H. Moustapha
Substitution
Cameroon
21 H. Moustapha
M. Leš
Croatia
5 M. Leš
S. Peric
Austria
45 S. Peric
B. Bogojević
Substitution
Croatia
25 B. Bogojević
A. Kavelj
Croatia
36 A. Kavelj
I. Pozo La Rosa
Spain
8 I. Pozo La Rosa
Ž. Trontelj
Slovenia
22 Ž. Trontelj
D. Pavičić
Substitution
Croatia
24 D. Pavičić
S. Kučiš
Substitution
Croatia
14 S. Kučiš
A. Erceg
Croatia
50 A. Erceg

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion HNK Rijeka
Capacity :
8279
Attendance :
4208
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Duje Strukan
Ivan Janić
Dujo Sarić
Jakov Titlić

Statistics

Possession
Rijeka
60%
Gorica
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 1
82 Dangerous attacks 40
59 Possession 41
7 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

21 Throwins 18
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
5 Successful Dribbles 2
7 Goal Kicks 13
12 Dribble Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 4
2 Assists 0

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
132 Attacks 74

Possession

21 Successful Long Passes 15
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
434 Passes 305
83 Successful Passes Percentage 78
48 Long Passes 43
361 Successful Passes 239
17 Key Passes 2

Defensive

12 Tackles 14
2 Saves 6
39 Duels Won 34
8 Interceptions 8

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 0
23 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

11 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

99
Aleksa Todorović
Aleksa Todorović Goalkeeper
22
Ante Orec
Ante Orec Defender
—
Ante Orec
88'
34
Mladen Devetak
Mladen Devetak Defender
45
Ante Majstorovic
Ante Majstorovic Defender
91
Noel Bodetic
Noel Bodetic Defender
10
Toni Fruk
Toni Fruk Midfielder
18
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Daniel Adu-Adjei
Attacker77'
14
Amer Gojak
Amer Gojak Midfielder
2
20
Merveil Ndockyt
Merveil Ndockyt Midfielder
2
Lovro Kitin
Lovro Kitin
Defender62'
26
Tiago Dantas
Tiago Dantas Midfielder
8
Dejan Petrovic
Dejan Petrovic
Midfielder88'
66
Branko Pavic
Branko Pavic Midfielder
77
Ante Matej Juric
Ante Matej Juric Attacker
15
Goran Grulovic
Goran Grulovic
Attacker88'
Referee : Duje Strukan

Starting XI ▼

71
Davor Matijas
Davor Matijas Goalkeeper
5
Mateo Les
Mateo Les Defender
21
Hadji Issa Moustapha
Hadji Issa Moustapha Defender
20
Luka Vrzic
Luka Vrzic
Attacker83'
45
Stefan Peric
Stefan Peric Defender
8
Iker Pozo
Iker Pozo Midfielder
22
Zan Trontelj
Zan Trontelj Midfielder
25
Bruno Bogojevic
Bruno Bogojevic Midfielder
11
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Sule Wisdom Aondowase
Attacker73'
36
Ante Kavelj
Ante Kavelj Midfielder
14
Stjepan Kucis
Stjepan Kucis Attacker
7
Ognjen Bakic
Ognjen Bakic
Midfielder58'
24
Domagoj Pavicic
Domagoj Pavicic Attacker
64
Théo Epailly
Théo Epailly
Attacker58'
50
Ante Erceg
Ante Erceg Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Goran Grulovic → Ante Matej Juric
7th Substitution
88'
Event
Dejan Petrovic → Tiago Dantas
8th Substitution
88'
Event
Viktor Vešligaj → Ante Orec
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Amer Gojak
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
84'
83'
Event
Luka Vrzic → Hadji Issa Moustapha
6th Substitution
80'
Event
Ante Erceg
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
Event
Ognjen Bakic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Daniel Adu-Adjei → Toni Fruk
5th Substitution
77'
77'
Event
Mario Carević
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Sule Wisdom Aondowase → Bruno Bogojevic
4th Substitution
Event
Amer Gojak
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
66'
Event
Lovro Kitin → Merveil Ndockyt
3rd Substitution
62'
58'
Event
Théo Epailly → Domagoj Pavicic
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Ognjen Bakic → Stjepan Kucis
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Hadji Issa Moustapha
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

87
Update Update
Dejan Petrovic comes on for Tiago Dantas.
87
Update Update
Viktor Vesligaj is on, and Ante Orec is off.
86
Update Update
Goran Grulovic is on, and Ante Matej Juric is off.
84
Attempt Attempt
Amer Gojak scores with a left-footed shot.
83
Update Update
Luka Vrzic is on, and Hadji Moustapha is off.
81
Attempt Attempt
Ante Erceg takes a right-footed shot but misses.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ante Erceg receives a yellow card.
79
Attempt Attempt
Lovro Kitin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
76
Update Update
Daniel Adu Adjei replaces Toni Fruk.
73
Attempt Attempt
Ante Matej Juric takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Update Update
Sule Wisdom Aondowase replaces Bruno Bogojevic.
66
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal! Amer Gojak takes a right-footed shot.
66
Attempt Attempt
Mladen Devetak takes a left-footed shot but misses.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Amer Gojak scores, making it 1-0.
64
Attempt Attempt
Ante Erceg takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Noel Bodetic's left-footed shot is saved.
62
Update Update
Lovro Kitin comes on for Merveille Ndockyt.
58
Update Update
Ognjen Bakic is on, and Stjepan Kucis is off.
58
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Dantas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Update Update
Theo Epailly replaces Domagoj Pavicic.
56
Attempt Attempt
Toni Fruk takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hadji Moustapha receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
Toni Fruk takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Bogojevic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Noel Bodetic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Attempt Attempt
Ante Matej Juric takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
39
Attempt Attempt
Merveille Ndockyt attempts a header but misses the shot.
39
Attempt Attempt
Merveille Ndockyt takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
30
Attempt Attempt
Ante Majstorovic's right-footed shot is blocked.
30
Attempt Attempt
Ante Matej Juric takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Toni Fruk takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
18
Attempt Attempt
Toni Fruk takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Toni Fruk takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Merveille Ndockyt's right-footed shot is blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Ante Matej Juric attempts a header but misses the shot.

CONCLUSION

Rijeka completed a controlled performance to defeat Gorica by 2-0 after a scoreless opening period. Possession dominance at 59 percent supported their second-half breakthrough and overall superiority. The stronger team fulfilled expectations without reliance on disciplinary advantages or external variables. Market alignment confirmed the outcome consistency while efficiency metrics stayed steady. Absence of xG figures limited deeper statistical comparison yet the result reflected clear structural patterns. Rijeka now carries momentum forward while Gorica must address defensive lapses exposed after halftime. The clean sheet and efficient finishing highlighted their tactical discipline throughout the fixture.

Rijeka vs Gorica preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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