Ried vs Grazer AK Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria

josko ARENA Tue, 21 Apr - 6:30 PM

Admiral Bundesliga

Ried Ried

Grazer AK GAK

Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 6:30 PM

Round 6 Relegation Round

Kingstone Mutandwa - 35'

Ante Bajic - 28'

Mark Grosse - 67'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Ried 2–1 Grazer AK. The result saw Ried take the points. Ried showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Ried's 2-1 win featured a significant 51.3% structural deviation in their favor.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with expectations for both teams.
xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match flow.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from dismissals.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

D. Pfister

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Diesenberger

1st Assistant

M. Koller

2nd Assistant

S. Bosnjak

4th Official

M. Senft

F. Feldhofer

1.29

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.41

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

5 - 5 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Ried

48.66%

Draw

28.82%

Grazer AK

22.52%

Movement

Changes since opening

Ried

-47.45%

Draw

+25.12%

Grazer AK

+22.33%

Team Power Ranking

24.27

22.38

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Ried

Grazer AK

Power Score

24.27

22.38

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Ried — Opponent-weighted form score

Grazer AK — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ried Grazer AK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Ried

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Grazer AK

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Ried ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Grazer AK

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

39.80

12.80

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

12.80

39.80

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Ried +2.27 Efficiency Index

Grazer AK -2.27 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Ried

Grazer AK

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Ried ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Grazer AK

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Ried Grazer AK

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Ried Grazer AK

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Ried

Grazer AK

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Ried

Grazer AK

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Ried Grazer AK

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Ried Grazer AK

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Ried

Grazer AK

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Ried had peak pressure around 20'.
Ried started the game with stronger pressure.

Ried Pressure GAK Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Ried reached the top pressure at 20' (82.18).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ried Ried Home

11 matches

Grazer AK GAK Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-7

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:02:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-3-3-1

Match Formation 3-1-4-2

1 A. Leitner

5 N. Havenaar

23 M. Sollbauer

30 O. Steurer

17 P. Pomer

6 M. Maart

28 N. Bajlicz

12 A. Bajic

19 Y. Nasrawe

29 A. Van Wyk

7 K. Mutandwa

12 F. Stolz

3 L. Vraa-Jensen

2 D. Pines

82 B. Owusu

6 M. Olesen

23 M. Bagrationi

10 C. Lichtenberger

8 T. Koch

32 L. Klassen

22 R. Harakaté

25 A. Hofleitner

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 21, 2026, 06:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 6 · Relegation Round

Stadium :

josko ARENA

Capacity :

5000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Daniel Pfister

Mario Diesenberger

Manuel Koller

Stjepan Bosnjak

Statistics

Possession

Ried

52%

GAK

48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1

5 Big Chances Created 1

7 Shots 2

58 Dangerous attacks 28

50 Possession 50

5 Corners 4

12 Free kicks 8

2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

22 Throwins 20

10 Goal Kicks 8

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71

16 Dribble Attempts 7

8 Successful Dribbles 5

2 Assists 1

3 Substitutions 5

43 Ball Safe 52

9 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

104 Attacks 80

3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

294 Successful Passes 279

78 Successful Passes Percentage 75

28 Successful Long Passes 26

64 Long Passes 60

44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

376 Passes 373

12 Key Passes 3

Defensive

47 Duels Won 47

9 Tackles 18

8 Interceptions 7

1 Saves 4

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 16

5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 1

8 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Pfister

Manager ▼

M. Senft Coach

Starting XI ▼

Andreas Leitner Goalkeeper

6.86

Benjamin Garcia Defender

Michael Sollbauer Defender

6.76

Oliver Steurer Defender

6.85

Yusuf Maart Midfielder

7.01

Philipp Pomer Midfielder

6.98

Yussef Nasrawe Midfielder

6.57

Jonas Mayer

Midfielder72'

6.67

Nicolas Bajlicz Midfielder

6.78

Martin Rasner

Midfielder72'

6.5

Kingstone Mutandwa Attacker

6.98

Ante Bajic Attacker

6.92

Antonio Van Wyk Attacker

6.85

Evan Eghosa

Midfielder78'

6.4

Substitutes ▼

Jonas Mayer

Midfielder72'

6.67

Martin Rasner

Midfielder72'

6.5

Evan Eghosa

Midfielder78'

6.4

Bench ▼

Marcel Kostenbauer Goalkeeper

Jonathan Scherzer Defender

6.46

Dominik Kirnbauer Defender

6.42

Mark Jackson Midfielder

6.48

Peter Kiedl Attacker

6.64

Joris Boguo Attacker

6.51

Referee : Daniel Pfister