Reggiana vs Sampdoria Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Reggiana Reggiana
1 Winner 0
Sampdoria SAM
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Andrija Novakovich - 76'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Reggiana secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Sampdoria at home, defying expectations as the visitors controlled 68% possession compared to the hosts' 32%. The first half ended 0-0, with neither side finding the net despite Sampdoria's dominance. Reggiana's goal came in the second half, showcasing their efficiency in limited opportunities while Sampdoria struggled to convert possession into clear chances. Identified as the stronger team pre-match, Sampdoria's failure to win marks a significant deviation, quantified at 70.3%. No red cards were issued, and no notable second-half adjustments were made by either side. This result highlights Reggiana's defensive solidity and opportunistic play against a possession-heavy opponent.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Reggiana's 1-0 win represented a 70.3% significant structural deviation from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiency finished in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevents assessment of outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: The result did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No red cards or second-half adjustments influenced the match events.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion to the final score.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Guida

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Cortese

1st Assistant

Italy

D. Perenzoni

4th Official

Italy

S. Pistarelli

2nd Assistant

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.27
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.31
Penalties / match 0.29
Reggiana P. Bisoli
P. Bisoli
VS
Sampdoria Attilio Lombardo
Attilio Lombardo
0.73
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: 57 L
Palermo Rank: 64 D
Calcio Padova Rank: 48 L
Carrarese Rank: 53 W
Pescara Rank: 48 L
Virtus Entella Rank: 49 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: 52 W
Cesena Rank: 52 D
Monza Rank: 65 L
Pescara Rank: 48 W
Empoli Rank: 55 W
Avellino Rank: 54 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Reggiana
29.7%
Draw
29%
Away Sampdoria
41.3%

Movement

Changes since opening
Reggiana
-65.91%
Draw
+24.8%
Sampdoria
+41.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48.14
52.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Reggiana
Sampdoria
Power Score
48.14
52.71
League Position
18
13
Global Rank
842
716

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Reggiana — Opponent-weighted form score
Sampdoria — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Reggiana Sampdoria

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Reggiana

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sampdoria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Reggiana ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sampdoria
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.06
23.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.90
49.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Reggiana +2.40 Efficiency Index
vs
Sampdoria -2.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Reggiana
Sampdoria
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Reggiana ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sampdoria
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Reggiana Sampdoria
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Reggiana Sampdoria
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Reggiana
Sampdoria
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Reggiana
vs
Sampdoria
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Reggiana Sampdoria
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Reggiana 0.41
Sampdoria 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Reggiana Sampdoria
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Reggiana 0.00
Sampdoria 0.03
Reggiana
Sampdoria
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SAM had peak pressure around 85'.
  • Reggiana started the game with stronger pressure.
Reggiana Pressure SAM Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SAM reached the top pressure at 85' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Reggiana Reggiana Home
5 matches
Sampdoria SAM Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
5
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:02:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Micai
Italy
1 A. Micai
L. Libutti
Italy
17 L. Libutti
F. Vicari
Substitution
Italy
34 F. Vicari
M. Vanelli Lusuardi
Brazil
47 M. Vanelli Lusuardi
A. Bozzolan
Italy
3 A. Bozzolan
T. Reinhart
Substitution
Argentina
16 T. Reinhart
M. Lambourde
Substitution
France
93 M. Lambourde
M. Portanova
Italy
90 M. Portanova
C. Lima Pontes
Brazil
8 C. Lima Pontes
M. Rover
Substitution
Italy
23 M. Rover
C. Gondo
Substitution
Ivory Coast
11 C. Gondo
Pitch
T. Martinelli
Italy
50 T. Martinelli
M. Cicconi
Substitution
Italy
7 M. Cicconi
M. Viti
Italy
2 M. Viti
D. Hadzikadunic
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
17 D. Hadzikadunic
M. Palma
Italy
13 M. Palma
L. Henderson
Substitution
Scotland
16 L. Henderson
S. Esposito
Italy
94 S. Esposito
Antonín Barák
Substitution
Czech Republic
72 Antonín Barák
T. Begić
Slovenia
11 T. Begić
M. Coda
Italy
9 M. Coda
F. Depaoli
Substitution
Italy
23 F. Depaoli

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Capacity :
21584
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marco Guida
Francesco Cortese
Daniele Perenzoni
Simone Pistarelli

Statistics

Possession
Reggiana
38%
SAM
62%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
14 Shots 14
34 Dangerous attacks 45
32 Possession 68
3 Corners 9
8 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
20 Throwins 25
9 Dribble Attempts 3
5 Successful Dribbles 2
67 Ball Safe 76
10 Goal Attempts 10
8 Goal Kicks 13
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0

Attacking

76 Attacks 102
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 89
288 Passes 615
225 Successful Passes 549
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
45 Long Passes 39
17 Successful Long Passes 22
9 Key Passes 11

Defensive

33 Duels Won 34
4 Interceptions 8
10 Tackles 7
6 Saves 1

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 20
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

15 Fouls 8
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Micai
Alessandro Micai Goalkeeper
3
Andrea Bozzolan
Andrea Bozzolan Defender
17
Lorenzo Libutti
Lorenzo Libutti Defender
34
Francesco Vicari
Francesco Vicari Defender
2
Andrea Papetti
Andrea Papetti
Defender10'
47
Mateus Lusuardi
Mateus Lusuardi Defender
8
Charlys
Charlys Midfielder
16
Tobías Reinhart
Tobías Reinhart Midfielder
6
Francesco Vallarelli
Francesco Vallarelli
Midfielder83'
23
Matteo Rover
Matteo Rover Midfielder
9
Andrija Novakovich
Andrija Novakovich
Attacker46'
90
Manolo Portanova
Manolo Portanova Midfielder
93
Mathis Lambourde
Mathis Lambourde Midfielder
26
Massimo Bertagnoli
Massimo Bertagnoli
Midfielder83'
11
Cedric Gondo
Cedric Gondo Attacker
80
Natan Girma
Natan Girma
Attacker57'
Referee : Marco Guida

Starting XI ▼

50
Tommaso Martinelli
Tommaso Martinelli Goalkeeper
2
Mattia Viti
Mattia Viti Defender
7
Manuel Cicconi
Manuel Cicconi Defender
20
Simone Pafundi
Simone Pafundi
Midfielder78'
13
Matteo Palma
Matteo Palma Defender
17
Dennis Hadzikadunic
Dennis Hadzikadunic Defender
25
Alex Ferrari
Alex Ferrari
Defender87'
16
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Midfielder
34
Tommaso Casalino
Tommaso Casalino
Midfielder87'
72
Antonín Barák
Antonín Barák Midfielder
92
Edoardo Soleri
Edoardo Soleri
Attacker69'
94
Salvatore Esposito
Salvatore Esposito Midfielder
9
Massimo Coda
Massimo Coda Attacker
11
Tjas Begic
Tjas Begic Attacker
23
Fabio Depaoli
Fabio Depaoli Attacker
21
Simone Giordano
Simone Giordano
Defender69'

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Tommaso Casalino → Liam Henderson
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Alex Ferrari → Dennis Hadzikadunic
10th Substitution
Event
Massimo Bertagnoli → Mathis Lambourde
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Francesco Vallarelli → Tobías Reinhart
8th Substitution
83'
78'
Event
Simone Pafundi → Manuel Cicconi
6th Substitution
Event
Andrija Novakovich
Header / 1st Goal
76'
Event
Tobías Reinhart
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
75'
69'
Event
Simone Giordano → Fabio Depaoli
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Edoardo Soleri → Antonín Barák
5th Substitution
Event
Natan Girma → Cedric Gondo
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Andrija Novakovich → Matteo Rover
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Cedric Gondo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
43'
32'
Event
Fabio Depaoli
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Andrea Papetti → Francesco Vicari
1st Substitution
10'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pafundi's left-footed shot is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Casalino's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pafundi takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Alex Ferrari comes on for Dennis Hadzikadunic.
87
Update Update
Tommaso Casalino comes on for Liam Henderson.
83
Update Update
Francesco Vallarelli replaces Tobias Reinhart.
83
Update Update
Massimo Bertagnoli comes on for Mathis Lambourde.
82
Attempt Attempt
Massimo Coda takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Palma takes a right-footed shot but misses.
78
Update Update
Simone Pafundi replaces Manuel Cicconi.
77
Attempt Attempt
Charly's left-footed shot missed.
76
Attempt Attempt
Andrija Novakovich takes a shot with his head and scores.
72
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Lusuardi takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
71
Attempt Attempt
Natan Girma takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Update Update
Simone Giordano is on, and Fabio Depaoli is off.
69
Update Update
Edoardo Soleri replaces Antonin Barak.
66
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Lambourde takes a left-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Natan Girma's right-footed shot is blocked.
62
Attempt Attempt
Andrija Novakovich takes a right-footed shot but misses.
59
Attempt Attempt
Tjas Begic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Update Update
Natan Girma comes on for Cedric Gondo.
54
Attempt Attempt
Liam Henderson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Manolo Portanova takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Andrea Bozzolan's left-footed shot is saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Liam Henderson takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Update Update
Andrija Novakovich is on, and Matteo Rover is off.
44
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Palma takes a header but misses the shot.
44
Update Update
Matteo Palma attempts a header but misses the target.
37
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Lambourde takes a left-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Lambourde's right-footed shot is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Massimo Coda takes a right-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Tobias Reinhart takes a right-footed shot but misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Tjas Begic's right-footed shot is saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Massimo Coda takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Rover takes a left-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Rover takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Manolo Portanova takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Update Update
Andrea Papetti comes on for Francesco Vicari.

CONCLUSION

Reggiana's 1-0 triumph over Sampdoria underscores the limitations of possession as a predictor of success, with the home side thriving on 32% control. Sampdoria's inability to capitalize on their 68% share exposed vulnerabilities in chance creation. This outcome, a significant deviation from pre-match structural norms, reinforces Reggiana's resilience. Without xG data, deeper shot quality analysis remains elusive, but the efficiency alignment suggests neither team overperformed markedly. The clean sheet and lack of disciplinary issues point to a tactical battle won through discipline and precision.

Reggiana vs Sampdoria preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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