Reggiana vs Monza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore Tue, 17 Mar - 7:00 PM
Serie B
Reggiana Reggiana
0 – 0
Monza MON
Full Time Tue, 17 Mar 7:00 PM

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Reggiana 0–0 Monza. The match ended in a draw. Monza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 32%–68%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Monza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Reggiana L. Rubinacci
L. Rubinacci
VS
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.24
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: 56 L
Spezia Rank: 53 W
Avellino Rank: 50 D
Empoli Rank: 57 D
Mantova Rank: 49 W
Catanzaro Rank: 60 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: 54 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 47 W
Carrarese Rank: 53 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 W
Südtirol Rank: 57 D
Avellino Rank: 50 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Reggiana
16.46%
Draw
27.33%
Away Monza
56.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.57
59.43
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Reggiana
Monza
Power Score
47.57
59.43
League Position
19
2
Global Rank
813
288

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Reggiana — Opponent-weighted form score
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Reggiana Monza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Reggiana

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Monza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Reggiana ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.56
34.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.41
36.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Reggiana +0.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Monza -0.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Reggiana
Monza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Reggiana ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Reggiana Monza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Reggiana Monza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Reggiana
Monza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Reggiana Reggiana Home
4 matches
Monza MON Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
6
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-18T00:04:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Micai
Italy
1 A. Micai
A. Papetti
Italy
2 A. Papetti
D. Quaranta
Italy
14 D. Quaranta
M. Vanelli Lusuardi
Brazil
47 M. Vanelli Lusuardi
M. Rover
Substitution
Italy
23 M. Rover
C. Lima Pontes
Brazil
8 C. Lima Pontes
T. Reinhart
Substitution
Argentina
16 T. Reinhart
M. Portanova
Substitution
Italy
90 (C) M. Portanova
L. Libutti
Italy
17 L. Libutti
N. Girma
Substitution
Switzerland
80 N. Girma
A. Novakovich
United States
9 A. Novakovich
Pitch
D. Thiam
Senegal
20 D. Thiam
A. Carboni
Italy
44 A. Carboni
F. Delli Carri
Italy
15 F. Delli Carri
L. Ravanelli
Italy
13 L. Ravanelli
P. Dentello Azzi
Substitution
Brazil
7 P. Dentello Azzi
L. Colombo
Italy
21 L. Colombo
M. Pessina
Italy
32 (C) M. Pessina
A. Bakoune
Italy
24 A. Bakoune
H. Azevedo Júnior
Substitution
Brazil
8 H. Azevedo Júnior
P. Cutrone
Substitution
Italy
10 P. Cutrone
D. Carvalho
Substitution
Portugal
47 D. Carvalho

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium :
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Capacity :
21584
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Giuseppe Mucera

Statistics

Possession
Reggiana
36%
MON
64%

Top Statistics

0 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 7
34 Dangerous attacks 88
32 Possession 68
3 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

17 Throwins 13
10 Goal Kicks 8
14 Dribble Attempts 17
4 Successful Dribbles 7
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 41
0 Hit Woodwork 1
53 Ball Safe 44
0 Goal Attempts 9
0 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 4

Attacking

88 Attacks 133
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 89
316 Passes 659
62 Long Passes 35
248 Successful Passes 586
27 Successful Long Passes 18
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
6 Key Passes 14

Defensive

6 Interceptions 0
18 Tackles 19
6 Saves 0

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 31
0 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

11 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Giuseppe Mucera

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Micai
Alessandro Micai Goalkeeper
8.53
2
Andrea Papetti
Andrea Papetti Defender
6.86
14
Danilo Quaranta
Danilo Quaranta Defender
7.02
47
Mateus Lusuardi
Mateus Lusuardi Defender
7.09
8
Charlys
Charlys Midfielder
7.02
16
Tobías Reinhart
Tobías Reinhart Midfielder
7
26
Massimo Bertagnoli
Massimo Bertagnoli
Midfielder75'
6.51
17
Lorenzo Libutti
Lorenzo Libutti Midfielder
6.62
23
Matteo Rover
Matteo Rover Midfielder
7.08
44
Leonardo Mendicino
Leonardo Mendicino
Midfielder82'
6.73
90
Manolo Portanova
Manolo Portanova (C) Midfielder
6.44
43
Simone Bonetti
Simone Bonetti
Defender83'
6.4
9
Andrija Novakovich
Andrija Novakovich Attacker
6.52
80
Natan Girma
Natan Girma Attacker
6.78
10
Kleis Bozhanaj
Kleis Bozhanaj
Midfielder75'
6.58
Referee : Giuseppe Mucera

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
6.9
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli Defender
7.88
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Defender
6.82
44
Andrea Carboni
Andrea Carboni Defender
7.33
7
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi Midfielder
7.22
28
Andrea Colpani
Andrea Colpani
Midfielder82'
6.42
21
Leonardo Colombo
Leonardo Colombo Midfielder
7.46
24
Adam Bakoune
Adam Bakoune Midfielder
6.88
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina (C) Midfielder
7.29
8
Hernani
Hernani Attacker
7.5
30
Giuseppe Caso
Giuseppe Caso
Midfielder65'
6.23
10
Patrick Cutrone
Patrick Cutrone Attacker
7.1
25
Agustín Álvarez
Agustín Álvarez
Attacker65'
6.58
47
Dany Mota
Dany Mota Attacker
6.79
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna
Attacker64'
6.72

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Simone Bonetti → Manolo Portanova
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Leonardo Mendicino → Matteo Rover
7th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Andrea Colpani → Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
6th Substitution
Event
Massimo Bertagnoli → Tobías Reinhart
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Kleis Bozhanaj → Natan Girma
5th Substitution
75'
65'
Event
Agustín Álvarez → Patrick Cutrone
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Giuseppe Caso → Hernani
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Andrea Petagna → Dany Mota
1st Substitution
Event
Tobías Reinhart
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
58'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Monza exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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