Real Zaragoza vs Granada Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de la Romareda Fri, 1 May - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Real Zaragoza ZAR
0 Winner 1
Granada GRA
Full Time Fri, 1 May 7:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
|
Goal
Álex Sola - 90+8'
|
Red Card Jorge Pascual 90+4'

CONTEXT

Real Zaragoza hosted Granada in a hard-fought Segunda Division encounter that ended 0-1 in favor of the visitors. The first half finished 0-0, with Granada dominating possession at 55% to Zaragoza's 45%, yet neither side found the net amid cautious play. Tension escalated post-interval as Granada struck first with a precise goal, capitalizing on their superior quality as the stronger team. Drama peaked when Granada received a red card, leaving them with ten players, but Zaragoza could not exploit the advantage. Granada's defensive resolve held firm, securing a vital away win. This outcome underscores Granada's efficiency and resilience, particularly in the face of adversity, in a match defined by second-half adjustments.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match showed a 96.8% structural deviation favoring Granada, rated as significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The result did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were unavailable for evaluation.
  • Event impact: The away team's red card had a major impact on second-half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion influenced adjustments, yet Granada prevailed 1-0 with ten men.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Pérez Hernández

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Bueno Prieto

4th Official

G. López De La Llave

1st Assistant

S. Rebollo Merino

2nd Assistant

Real Zaragoza D. Navarro Arenaz
D. Navarro Arenaz
VS
Granada J. Rojo Martín
J. Rojo Martín
1.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.31
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Huesca Rank: 57 L
Ceuta Rank: 59 D
Córdoba Rank: 61 L
Mirandés Rank: 59 L
Leganés Rank: 63 D
Racing Santander Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Almería Rank: 69 L
Albacete Rank: 64 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 58 W
Castellón Rank: 68 L
Las Palmas Rank: 71 L
Huesca Rank: 59 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Zaragoza
5.48%
Draw
91.31%
Away Granada
3.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.76
64.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Zaragoza
Granada
Power Score
57.76
64.59
League Position
21
14
Global Rank
554
339

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Zaragoza — Opponent-weighted form score
Granada — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Zaragoza Granada

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Zaragoza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Granada

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Zaragoza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Granada
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.67
22.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.18
22.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Zaragoza +0.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Granada -0.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Zaragoza
Granada
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Zaragoza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Granada
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Zaragoza Granada
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Zaragoza Granada
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Zaragoza
Granada
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Real Zaragoza
vs
Granada
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Real Zaragoza Granada
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Real Zaragoza 0.11
Granada 0.46
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Real Zaragoza Granada
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Real Zaragoza 0.04
Granada 0.00
Real Zaragoza
Granada
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • GRA had peak pressure around 43'.
  • GRA started the game with stronger pressure.
ZAR Pressure GRA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: GRA reached the top pressure at 43' (83.38).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Zaragoza ZAR Home
17 matches
Granada GRA Away
Match Record
6
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
6
Goals
18
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
18
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:04:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
A. Rodríguez Giménez
Argentina
13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
Spain
20 M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
P. Ínsua Blanco
Spain
4 P. Ínsua Blanco
J. El Yamiq
Morocco
18 J. El Yamiq
J. Larios López
Spain
27 J. Larios López
R. González Bayón
Spain
11 R. González Bayón
F. Gracia
Substitution
Spain
14 F. Gracia
Y. Saidu
Substitution
33 Y. Saidu
F. Moyano Jiménez
Substitution
Spain
17 F. Moyano Jiménez
K. Kodro
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
19 K. Kodro
D. Gómez Alcón
Spain
9 D. Gómez Alcón
Pitch
A. Astralaga Aranguren
Spain
13 A. Astralaga Aranguren
B. Diallo
Senegal
22 B. Diallo
L. Ntambue Kayumba
Spain
24 L. Ntambue Kayumba
B. Diaby
Spain
17 B. Diaby
Á. Lemos Collazo
Substitution
Spain
18 Á. Lemos Collazo
M. Trigueros Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
14 M. Trigueros Muñoz
R. Alcaraz Jiménez
Spain
4 R. Alcaraz Jiménez
P. Serra
Substitution
Spain
8 P. Serra
J. Arnáiz Díaz
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Arnáiz Díaz
J. Pascual Medina
Spain
19 J. Pascual Medina
P. Saenz Ezquerra
Spain
21 P. Saenz Ezquerra

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio de la Romareda
Capacity :
33608
Attendance :
16528
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Fernando Bueno Prieto
Gonzalo López De La Llave
S. Rebollo Merino
Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández

Statistics

Possession
ZAR
47%
GRA
53%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 4
64 Dangerous attacks 24
45 Possession 55
7 Corners 7
17 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 5
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

35 Throwins 19
5 Goal Kicks 10
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
5 Successful Dribbles 6
11 Dribble Attempts 13
2 Injuries 0
5 Goal Attempts 6
83 Ball Safe 98
4 Substitutions 4
0 Assists 1

Attacking

80 Attacks 73
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

70 Successful Passes Percentage 82
59 Long Passes 53
257 Passes 337
181 Successful Passes 277
19 Successful Long Passes 23
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
5 Key Passes 10

Defensive

52 Duels Won 57
3 Saves 2
19 Tackles 12
4 Interceptions 8

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 16
2 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

16 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández

Starting XI ▼

13
Adrián Rodríguez
Adrián Rodríguez Goalkeeper
6.89
4
Pablo Insua
Pablo Insua Defender
5.29
18
Jawad El Yamiq
Jawad El Yamiq Defender
7.01
20
Martín Aguirregabiria
Martín Aguirregabiria Defender
6.81
27
Juan Larios
Juan Larios Defender
6.6
11
Rober González
Rober González Midfielder
7.08
14
Francho Serrano
Francho Serrano Midfielder
6.85
31
Hugo Pinilla
Hugo Pinilla
Midfielder86'
6.45
17
Sebas Moyano
Sebas Moyano Midfielder
6.86
10
Raúl Guti
Raúl Guti
Midfielder71'
6.93
33
Yussif Saidu
Yussif Saidu Midfielder
6.82
26
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Midfielder71'
6.76
9
Dani Gómez
Dani Gómez Attacker
6.79
19
Kenan Kodro
Kenan Kodro Attacker
6.79
23
Marcos Cuenca
Marcos Cuenca
Attacker71'
6.46
Referee : Manuel Ángel Pérez Hernández

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Astralaga
Ander Astralaga Goalkeeper
6.73
17
Bambo Diaby
Bambo Diaby Defender
6.5
18
Álvaro Lemos
Álvaro Lemos Defender
6.39
2
Pau Casadesús
Pau Casadesús
Defender65'
6.58
22
Baïla Diallo
Baïla Diallo Defender
6.63
24
Loïc Williams
Loïc Williams Defender
6.76
4
Rubén Alcaraz
Rubén Alcaraz Midfielder
6.91
8
Pedro Alemañ Serna
Pedro Alemañ Serna Midfielder
6.89
20
Sergio Ruiz
Sergio Ruiz
Midfielder89'
6.82
14
Manu Trigueros
Manu Trigueros Midfielder
6.72
41
Izan González
Izan González
Midfielder65'
6.86
11
José Manuel Arnáiz
José Manuel Arnáiz Attacker
6.95
7
Álex Sola
Álex Sola
Attacker77'
6.99
19
Jorge Pascual
Jorge Pascual Attacker
6.86
21
Pablo Sáenz
Pablo Sáenz Attacker
6.87

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Álex Sola
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
90+4'
Event
Jorge Pascual
Argument / 1st Redcard
90+1'
Event
Álex Sola
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Sergio Ruiz → Pedro Alemañ Serna
8th Substitution
Event
Hugo Pinilla → Francho Serrano
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Pablo Insua
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
85'
77'
Event
Álex Sola → José Manuel Arnáiz
6th Substitution
Event
Marcos Cuenca → Kenan Kodro
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Raúl Guti → Sebas Moyano
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze → Yussif Saidu
5th Substitution
71'
65'
Event
Izan González → Manu Trigueros
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Pau Casadesús → Álvaro Lemos
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Álvaro Lemos
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Yussif Saidu
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
59'
57'
Event
Rubén Alcaraz
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Loïc Williams
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Pacheta
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
44'
Event
Rubén Alcaraz
Goal disallowed
Event
Martín Aguirregabiria
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
16'
Event
Manu Trigueros
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Pinilla takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alex Sola scores with a right-footed shot.
89
Update Update
Sergio Ruiz Alonso replaces Pedro Aleman.
86
Update Update
Hugo Pinilla comes on for Francho Serrano.
84
Attempt Attempt
Francho Serrano's right-footed shot is blocked.
77
Update Update
Alex Sola replaces Jose Manuel Arnaiz Diaz.
74
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Alcaraz takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Gomez Alcon takes a right-footed shot but misses.
71
Update Update
Mawuli Mensah comes on for Yussif Saidu.
71
Substitution Substitution
Jose Raul Gutierrez is substituted for Francisco Sebastian Moyano Jimenez.
71
Update Update
Marcos Aranda Cuenca comes on for Kenan Kodro.
65
Update Update
Pau Casadesus Castro replaces Alvaro Lemos.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alvaro Lemos receives a yellow card.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ruben Alcaraz receives a yellow card.
52
Attempt Attempt
Jose Manuel Arnaiz Diaz takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
51
Attempt Attempt
Loic Williams takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Alcaraz takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
45
Attempt Attempt
Baila Diallo takes a left-footed shot but misses.
41
Update Update
The VAR decision has cancelled the goal.
35
Attempt Attempt
Jose Manuel Arnaiz Diaz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Francisco Sebastian Moyano Jimenez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Bambo Diaby attempts a header but misses the shot.
23
Attempt Attempt
Jorge Pascual's left-footed shot is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Rober Gonzalez takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
16
Update Update
Ruben Alcaraz attempts a header but misses the target.
15
Attempt Attempt
Manuel Trigueros Munoz takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
13
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Saenz takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Jawad El Yamiq takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

Granada's 1-0 victory over Real Zaragoza exemplifies their status as the stronger outfit, blending clinical finishing with staunch defending. Despite a goalless first half and 55% possession edge, the second period's goal and subsequent red card tested their mettle. Zaragoza's failure to score despite the man advantage highlights Granada's tactical discipline. This significant deviation from expected patterns boosts Granada's momentum, while Zaragoza must regroup. The result, shaped by red card distortion, reinforces Granada's efficiency in high-stakes scenarios.

Real Zaragoza vs Granada preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

La Liga 2, Spain View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Jesper GK

Jesper GK contributes football previews covering key fixtures, league context, team news, and matchday talking points.