Real Zaragoza vs Ceuta Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain

Estadio de la Romareda Sat, 18 Apr - 2:15 PM

La Liga 2

Real Zaragoza ZAR

2 – 2

Ceuta Ceuta

Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 2:15 PM

Round 36 Regular Season

Dani Gómez - 85' (P)

Rober González - 57'

Marcos Fernández - 89'

Konrad de la Fuente - 32'

Yago Cantero 49'

CONTEXT

Real Zaragoza hosted Ceuta in a pulsating Segunda División match that concluded in a 2-2 draw, defying pre-match expectations for the home side. Zaragoza, considered the stronger team, controlled 52% possession but trailed 0-1 at halftime. Ceuta's resilience shone through despite receiving a red card in the second half, allowing Zaragoza to equalize before Ceuta struck back twice for the dramatic tie. No xG data was available, leaving performance metrics reliant on possession and events. The result marked a significant structural deviation for Zaragoza at 75.4%, with efficiency shifts in line with norms. Market alignment failed to materialize, and second-half play was distorted by the red card. Zaragoza's failure to convert dominance into victory highlights Ceuta's gritty comeback ability in a game full of momentum swings.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Real Zaragoza showed a significant 75.4% structural deviation from expected performance.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: Market alignment was not achieved in the draw outcome.
xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable without recorded metrics.
Event impact: Away red card created substantial event impact on match flow.
Red card distortion: Ceuta's red card distorted second-half adjustments.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

A. Morilla Turrión

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Gutiérrez

4th Official

A. Gutiérrez Martino

1st Assistant

M. Herrera Ruiz

2nd Assistant

D. Navarro Arenaz

J. Romero Gil

1.08

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.42

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 0 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Real Zaragoza

55.75%

Draw

24.59%

Ceuta

19.66%

Movement

Changes since opening

Real Zaragoza

+40.24%

Draw

-58.51%

Ceuta

+18.27%

Team Power Ranking

23.08

20.96

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Real Zaragoza

Ceuta

Power Score

23.08

20.96

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Real Zaragoza — Opponent-weighted form score

Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Zaragoza Ceuta

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Real Zaragoza

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Ceuta

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Zaragoza ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Ceuta

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

54.42

19.38

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

19.38

54.42

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Real Zaragoza +3.56 Efficiency Index

Ceuta -3.56 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Real Zaragoza

Ceuta

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Zaragoza ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Ceuta

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Real Zaragoza Ceuta

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Real Zaragoza Ceuta

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Real Zaragoza

Ceuta

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Real Zaragoza

Ceuta

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Real Zaragoza Ceuta

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Real Zaragoza Ceuta

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Real Zaragoza

Ceuta

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

ZAR had peak pressure around 65'.
Ceuta started the game with stronger pressure.

ZAR Pressure Ceuta Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: ZAR reached the top pressure at 65' (98.85).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Zaragoza ZAR Home

1 matches

Ceuta Ceuta Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-1

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:05:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-3-2

Match Formation 4-3-3

1 E. Andrada

20 M. Aguirregabiria Padilla

4 P. Ínsua Blanco

18 J. El Yamiq

27 J. Larios López

6 K. Bare

14 F. Gracia

33 Y. Saidu

31 H. Pinilla Ruiz

9 D. Gómez Alcón

11 R. González Bayón

13 G. Vallejo Delgado

16 C. Redruello Nimo

24 Y. Cantero Pérez

6 C. Hernández Alarcón

4 A. Caparrós Guzmán

12 M. Illescas Montaño

14 Y. Bodiger

23 A. Tuhami

18 K. De La Fuente

9 M. Fernández Sánchez

7 A. Ahmed Ahmed

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 18, 2026, 02:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estadio de la Romareda

Capacity :

33608

Attendance :

17518

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

José Gutiérrez

Alejandro Morilla Turrión

Alaiz Gutiérrez Martino

Manuel Herrera Ruiz

Statistics

Possession

ZAR

54%

Ceuta

46%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2

7 Big Chances Created 2

25 Shots 8

66 Dangerous attacks 26

52 Possession 48

7 Corners 2

13 Free kicks 15

1 Yellow Cards 4

0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

23 Throwins 19

14 Dribble Attempts 13

3 Goal Kicks 11

43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 54

6 Successful Dribbles 7

1 Hit Woodwork 0

1 Assists 2

5 Substitutions 4

72 Ball Safe 81

1 Penalties 0

1 Injuries 1

23 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

95 Attacks 69

5 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

44 Long Passes 57

16 Key Passes 4

334 Passes 325

285 Successful Passes 249

85 Successful Passes Percentage 77

22 Successful Long Passes 19

50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

1 Saves 6

13 Tackles 19

42 Duels Won 46

9 Interceptions 7

Build-up

35 Total Crosses 13

9 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

15 Fouls 14

7 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro Morilla Turrión

Manager ▼

D. Navarro Arenaz Coach

Starting XI ▼

Esteban Andrada Goalkeeper

7.08

Pablo Insua Defender

5.29

Jawad El Yamiq Defender

7.05

Martín Aguirregabiria Defender

6.89

Juan Sebastián

Defender42'

6.54

Juan Larios Defender

6.6

Dani Tasende

Defender77'

6.75

Keidi Bare Midfielder

6.77

Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze

Midfielder43'

6.82

Francho Serrano Midfielder

6.82

Hugo Pinilla Midfielder

6.54

Kenan Kodro

Attacker43'

6.86

Yussif Saidu Midfielder

6.8

Dani Gómez Attacker

6.78

Rober González Attacker

7.08

Marcos Cuenca

Attacker87'

6.45

Substitutes ▼

Juan Sebastián

Defender42'

6.54

Kenan Kodro

Attacker43'

6.86

Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze

Midfielder43'

6.82

Dani Tasende

Defender77'

6.75

Marcos Cuenca

Attacker87'

6.45

Bench ▼

Adrián Rodríguez Goalkeeper

6.89

Carlos Pomares Defender

6.65

Aleksandar Radovanovic Defender

6.65

Toni Moya Midfielder

6.72

Mario Soberón Attacker

6.5

Sebas Moyano Attacker

6.86

Iker Vadillo Nogués Attacker

Referee : Alejandro Morilla Turrión