Real Valladolid vs Real Zaragoza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla Sat, 9 May - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Real Valladolid REV
2 Winner 0
Real Zaragoza ZAR
Full Time Sat, 9 May 4:30 PM
Round 39 Regular Season
Angel Carvajal - 86'
Juanmi Latasa - 4'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Mario Soberón 82'

CONTEXT

Real Valladolid claimed a 2-0 home win over Real Zaragoza, leading 1-0 at halftime and adding a second-half goal to seal victory. Despite possessing only 44% of the ball compared to Zaragoza's 56%, Valladolid were more clinical in attack and solid defensively. Zaragoza, deemed the stronger team pre-match, suffered a red card that shifted momentum decisively. The result showed minimal 2.1% structural deviation favoring Valladolid, with efficiency in line with expectations and full market alignment. xG data was unavailable, preventing deeper alignment or expectation analysis. The red card introduced clear second-half distortion, enabling Valladolid to control proceedings and secure a clean sheet against the run of early possession.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal 2.1% structural deviation favored Real Valladolid.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to null data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true for the 2-0 home win.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations undefined with null values.
  • Event impact: Away red card altered match dynamics significantly.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distorted second-half adjustments for Real Zaragoza.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Fuentes Molina

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Hernández Ramos

2nd Assistant

Spain

C. Martínez Caballero

1st Assistant

Spain

?. Juncal Moreira

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga 2 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 22.19
Yellow cards / match 4.73
Red cards / match 0.27
Penalties / match 0.33
Real Valladolid F. Escriba Segura
F. Escriba Segura
VS
Real Zaragoza D. Navarro Arenaz
D. Navarro Arenaz
0.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Las Palmas Rank: 71 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 59 W
FC Andorra Rank: 64 L
SD Eibar Rank: 70 D
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 56 L
Cádiz Rank: 56 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Granada Rank: 64 L
Huesca Rank: 57 L
Ceuta Rank: 59 D
Córdoba Rank: 65 L
Mirandés Rank: 59 L
Leganés Rank: 64 D
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 5 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Valladolid
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Real Zaragoza
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.82
57.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Valladolid
Real Zaragoza
Power Score
56.82
57.21
League Position
15
21
Global Rank
443
577

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Valladolid — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Zaragoza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Valladolid Real Zaragoza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Valladolid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Zaragoza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Valladolid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Zaragoza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.82
18.21
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.21
16.82
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Valladolid -0.14 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Zaragoza +0.14 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Valladolid
Real Zaragoza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Valladolid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Zaragoza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Valladolid Real Zaragoza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Valladolid Real Zaragoza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Valladolid
Real Zaragoza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Real Valladolid
vs
Real Zaragoza
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Real Valladolid Real Zaragoza
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Real Valladolid 0.21
Real Zaragoza 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Real Valladolid Real Zaragoza
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Real Valladolid 0.00
Real Zaragoza 0.07
Real Valladolid
Real Zaragoza
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ZAR had peak pressure around 62'.
  • REV started the game with stronger pressure.
REV Pressure ZAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ZAR reached the top pressure at 62' (67.83).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Valladolid REV Home
20 matches
Real Zaragoza ZAR Away
Match Record
11
Wins
4
5
Draws
5
4
Losses
11
Goals
30
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
30
+11
Goal Difference
-11

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:04:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
Á. Aceves Catalina
Spain
1 Á. Aceves Catalina
I. Alejo Peralta
Spain
14 I. Alejo Peralta
P. Tomeo Félez
Spain
15 P. Tomeo Félez
D. Torres Ortiz
Spain
4 D. Torres Ortiz
C. Clerc Martínez
Spain
18 C. Clerc Martínez
M. Lachuer
Substitution
France
6 M. Lachuer
S. Jurić
Croatia
24 S. Jurić
J. Ponceau
Substitution
France
21 J. Ponceau
P. Gonzalez Carmona
Substitution
Spain
22 P. Gonzalez Carmona
J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
Substitution
Spain
9 J. Latasa Fernandez Layos
S. Biuk
Substitution
Croatia
17 S. Biuk
Pitch
A. Rodríguez Giménez
Argentina
13 A. Rodríguez Giménez
J. Larios López
Spain
27 J. Larios López
J. El Yamiq
Substitution
Morocco
18 J. El Yamiq
P. Ínsua Blanco
Substitution
Spain
4 P. Ínsua Blanco
J. Serrano
Spain
2 J. Serrano
A. Moya Vega
Spain
8 A. Moya Vega
K. Bare
Albania
6 K. Bare
M. Cuenca Aranda
Substitution
Spain
23 M. Cuenca Aranda
R. González Bayón
Spain
11 R. González Bayón
F. Gracia
Substitution
Spain
14 F. Gracia
D. Gómez Alcón
Substitution
Spain
9 D. Gómez Alcón

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla
Capacity :
27618
Attendance :
17969
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Andrés Fuentes Molina
Iván Hernández Ramos
Carlos Martínez Caballero
Álvaro Juncal Moreira

Statistics

Possession
REV
47%
ZAR
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 8
28 Dangerous attacks 44
44 Possession 56
2 Corners 4
18 Free kicks 22
5 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
14 Throwins 23
1 Assists 0
13 Dribble Attempts 14
5 Successful Dribbles 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
7 Goal Kicks 5
73 Ball Safe 75
6 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

62 Attacks 97
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

59 Long Passes 34
251 Successful Passes 326
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
312 Passes 395
80 Successful Passes Percentage 83
31 Successful Long Passes 12
5 Key Passes 7

Defensive

18 Tackles 12
47 Duels Won 43
5 Saves 1
3 Interceptions 7

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 23
2 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
22 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Andrés Fuentes Molina

Starting XI ▼

1
Álvaro Aceves
Álvaro Aceves Goalkeeper
4
David Torres
David Torres Defender
14
Iván Alejo
Iván Alejo Defender
15
Pablo Tomeo
Pablo Tomeo Defender
18
Carlos Clerc
Carlos Clerc Defender
6
Mathis Lachuer
Mathis Lachuer Midfielder
16
Mario Maroto
Mario Maroto
Midfielder63'
21
Julien Ponceau
Julien Ponceau Midfielder
10
Marcos André
Marcos André
Attacker71'
24
Stanko Juric
Stanko Juric Midfielder
9
Juanmi Latasa
Juanmi Latasa Attacker
38
Angel Carvajal
Angel Carvajal
Attacker85'
17
Stipe Biuk
Stipe Biuk Attacker
11
Amath Ndiaye
Amath Ndiaye
Attacker84'
22
Peter Federico
Peter Federico Attacker
19
Lucas Sanseviero
Lucas Sanseviero
Attacker63'
Referee : Andrés Fuentes Molina

Starting XI ▼

13
Adrián Rodríguez
Adrián Rodríguez Goalkeeper
2
Juan Sebastián
Juan Sebastián Defender
4
Pablo Insua
Pablo Insua Defender
7
Mario Soberón
Mario Soberón
Attacker78'
18
Jawad El Yamiq
Jawad El Yamiq Defender
36
Alejandro Gomes Furtado
Alejandro Gomes Furtado
Defender46'
27
Juan Larios
Juan Larios Defender
6
Keidi Bare
Keidi Bare Midfielder
8
Toni Moya
Toni Moya Midfielder
11
Rober González
Rober González Midfielder
14
Francho Serrano
Francho Serrano Midfielder
19
Kenan Kodro
Kenan Kodro
Attacker65'
23
Marcos Cuenca
Marcos Cuenca Midfielder
31
Hugo Pinilla
Hugo Pinilla
Midfielder57'
9
Dani Gómez
Dani Gómez Attacker
15
Carlos Pomares
Carlos Pomares
Defender78'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Juan Larios
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
Event
Angel Carvajal
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
86'
Event
Angel Carvajal → Juanmi Latasa
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Amath Ndiaye → Stipe Biuk
9th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Mario Soberón
Foul / 1st Redcard
80'
Event
Carlos Pomares
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Carlos Pomares → Dani Gómez
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Mario Soberón → Pablo Insua
8th Substitution
Event
Marcos André → Julien Ponceau
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Mario Maroto
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
67'
65'
Event
Kenan Kodro → Francho Serrano
5th Substitution
Event
Mario Maroto → Mathis Lachuer
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Lucas Sanseviero → Peter Federico
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Mathis Lachuer
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
59'
Event
Julien Ponceau
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
58'
57'
Event
Hugo Pinilla → Marcos Cuenca
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Alejandro Gomes Furtado → Jawad El Yamiq
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Jawad El Yamiq
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
David Torres
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
41'
Event
Stipe Biuk
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
24'
15'
Event
Pablo Insua
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Juanmi Latasa
Header / 1st Goal
4'

Match Commentary

85
Update Update
Amath Ndiaye Diedhiou replaces Stipe Biuk.
85
Update Update
Angel Carvajal comes on for Juanmi Latasa.
80
Update Update
Carlos Pomares comes on for Daniel Gomez Alcon.
80
Attempt Attempt
Mario Soberon takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
78
Update Update
Mario Soberon replaces Pablo Insua Blanco.
74
Attempt Attempt
Marcos de Sousa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Update Update
Marcos de Sousa comes on for Julien Ponceau.
69
Attempt Attempt
Kenan Kodro takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
65
Update Update
Kenan Kodro replaces Francho Serrano.
65
Attempt Attempt
Stipe Biuk's right-footed shot is saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Moya Vega takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Update Update
Pablo Insua Blanco attempts a header but misses the target.
63
Substitution Substitution
Mario Maroto is substituted for Mathis Lachuer.
63
Update Update
Lucas Sanseviero replaces Peter Federico.
58
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Insua Blanco's header is saved.
57
Update Update
Hugo Pinilla comes on for Marcos Aranda Cuenca.
53
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Gomez Alcon takes a header shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Stanko Juric takes a header but misses the shot.
46
Substitution Substitution
Ale Gomes is substituted for Jawad El Yamiq.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jawad El Yamiq receives a yellow card.
42
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Gomez Alcon takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Gomez Alcon takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Mathis Lachuer takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stipe Biuk receives a yellow card.
15
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pablo Insua Blanco receives a yellow card.
4
Update Update
Juanmi Latasa scores with a header.

CONCLUSION

Real Valladolid's 2-0 triumph highlighted their resilience, turning lower possession into a solid win via sharp finishing and defensive resolve. The halftime 1-0 lead set the tone, amplified by Zaragoza's red card that neutralized their stronger status. Minimal deviation and market alignment reflect a controlled, expected outcome under the circumstances. Efficiency held steady, though absent xG limits full tactical insight. This result strengthens Valladolid's home record, exposing Zaragoza's vulnerability to key events like the sending-off.

Real Valladolid vs Real Zaragoza preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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