Real Sociedad II vs Castellón Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Anoeta Stadium Sat, 7 Mar - 3:15 PM
La Liga 2
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II
4 Winner 2
Castellón Castellón
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 3:15 PM
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena - 90+3'
Job Ochieng - 69', 2'
Gorka Carrera - 6'
Goal
|
Goal
Ousmane Camara - 24'
Álex Calatrava - 5'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Real Sociedad II 4–2 Castellón. The result saw Real Sociedad II take the points. Real Sociedad II showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 33%–67%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Sociedad II showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. De Ena Wolf

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Porras Rico

1st Assistant

Aleksandar Angelov

4th Official

S. Fernández Pérez

2nd Assistant

Real Sociedad II J. Ansotegi Gorostola
J. Ansotegi Gorostola
VS
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: L
Cádiz Rank: W
Málaga Rank: W
FC Andorra Rank: W
Las Palmas Rank: D
Leganés Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Racing Santander Rank: L
Las Palmas Rank: D
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: W
Real Valladolid Rank: W
FC Andorra Rank: W
Real Zaragoza Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Sociedad II
23.52%
Draw
25.11%
Away Castellón
51.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.58
56.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Sociedad II
Castellón
Power Score
43.58
56.32
League Position
12
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Sociedad II — Opponent-weighted form score
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Sociedad II Castellón

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Sociedad II

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Sociedad II ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Castellón
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
55.00
39.85
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.85
55.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Sociedad II +1.54 Efficiency Index
vs
Castellón -1.54 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Sociedad II
Castellón
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Sociedad II ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Castellón
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Sociedad II Castellón
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Sociedad II Castellón
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Sociedad II
Castellón
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II Home
1 matches
Castellón Castellón Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
4
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:08:57+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 07, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Stadium :
Anoeta Stadium
Capacity :
40000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alonso De Ena Wolf
Rubén Porras Rico
Aleksandar Ivaylov Angelov
S. Fernández Pérez

Statistics

Possession
Real Sociedad II
38%
Castellón
62%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 8
23 Dangerous attacks 74
33 Possession 67
2 Corners 6
9 Free kicks 18
6 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

21 Dribble Attempts 15
10 Throwins 14
52 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
11 Successful Dribbles 8
1 Assists 1
47 Ball Safe 35
18 Goal Kicks 7
4 Goal Attempts 15
4 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

75 Attacks 142
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

23 Successful Long Passes 25
66 Long Passes 41
271 Passes 555
69 Successful Passes Percentage 85
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 61
11 Key Passes 13
187 Successful Passes 469

Defensive

15 Interceptions 13
19 Tackles 13
6 Saves 4

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 6
10 Total Crosses 27

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
16 Fouls 9

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
Header / 6th Goal
90+3'
Event
Joan Oleaga → Gorka Gorosabel
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
86'
Event
10th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena → Gorka Carrera
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Lander Astiazaran
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Unax Larrañaga → Ibai Aguirre Basurco
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Alex Marchal → Job Ochieng
8th Substitution
81'
73'
Event
Tincho Conde → Salva Ruiz
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Adam Jakobsen → Diego Barri
6th Substitution
Event
Gorka Carrera
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
71'
71'
Event
Diego Barri
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Job Ochieng
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
69'
68'
Event
Álvaro García → Ousmane Camara
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Awer Mabil → Raúl Sánchez
4th Substitution
Event
Tomy Carbonell
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
56'
Event
Lander Astiazaran → Dani Díaz
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Israel Suero → Pablo Santiago
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Salva Ruiz
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Kazunari Kita
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+2'
24'
Event
Ousmane Camara
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Jon Balda
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
14'
Event
Gorka Carrera
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
6'
5'
Event
Álex Calatrava
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Job Ochieng
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
2'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Real Sociedad II exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Real Sociedad II vs Castellón preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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