Real Oviedo vs Villarreal Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere Thu, 23 Apr - 7:30 PM
La Liga
Real Oviedo OVI
1 1
Villarreal VIL
Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 7:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Ilyas Chaira - 69'
Goal
|
Goal
Nicolas Pépé - 13' (P)

CONTEXT

Real Oviedo hosted Villarreal in a tightly contested Segunda Division clash that ended in a 1-1 draw. Villarreal struck first before halftime, leading 1-0 at the break, showcasing their quality on the counter. Oviedo, buoyed by home support, dominated possession with 58% to Villarreal's 42% and mounted a strong comeback in the second half to level the score. Despite being considered the stronger side, Villarreal couldn't convert their opportunities into a win, resulting in a share of the spoils. The match highlighted Oviedo's resilience, as they overturned the deficit without any disciplinary disruptions—zero red cards for either team. This outcome marked a significant deviation from pre-match structural expectations favoring Villarreal, underscoring the home side's tactical adjustments and defensive solidity in a game of few clear chances.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant 71.3% structural deviation favored Villarreal but resulted in a draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with overall expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome did not align with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to lack of data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. De Burgos Bengoetxea

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Pérez de Mendiola González de Durana

2nd Assistant

I. De Francisco Grijalba

1st Assistant

J. Sánchez Villalobos

4th Official

Real Oviedo J. Almada Álves
J. Almada Álves
VS
Villarreal M. García Toral
M. García Toral
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celta de Vigo Rank: W
Sevilla Rank: W
Levante Rank: L
Valencia Rank: W
Espanyol Rank: D
Rayo Vallecano Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletic Club Rank: W
Girona Rank: L
Real Sociedad Rank: W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: D
Elche Rank: W
FC Barcelona Rank: L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Oviedo
29.11%
Draw
28.68%
Away Villarreal
42.2%

Movement

Changes since opening
Real Oviedo
+25.04%
Draw
-62.31%
Villarreal
+37.27%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.51
27.04
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Oviedo
Villarreal
Power Score
22.51
27.04
League Position
20
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Real Oviedo Opponent-weighted form score
Villarreal Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Oviedo Villarreal

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Real Oviedo

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Villarreal

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Real Oviedo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Villarreal
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.50
20.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.71
32.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Real Oviedo +1.07 Efficiency Index
vs
Villarreal -1.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Real Oviedo
Villarreal
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Oviedo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Villarreal
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Oviedo Villarreal
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Oviedo Villarreal
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Oviedo
Villarreal
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Real Oviedo
vs
Villarreal
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Real Oviedo Villarreal
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Real Oviedo Villarreal
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Real Oviedo
Villarreal
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • OVI had peak pressure around 52'.
  • VIL started the game with stronger pressure.
OVI Pressure VIL Pressure
Pressure Index: OVI reached the top pressure at 52' (92.99).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Oviedo OVI Home
1 matches
Villarreal VIL Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:02:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
A. Escandell Banacloche
Spain
13 A. Escandell Banacloche
I. Vidal Miralles
Spain
22 I. Vidal Miralles
E. Bailly
Ivory Coast
2 E. Bailly
D. Calvo San Román
Spain
12 D. Calvo San Román
J. López Carballo
Substitution
Spain
25 J. López Carballo
K. Sibo
Substitution
Ghana
6 K. Sibo
S. Colombatto
Argentina
11 S. Colombatto
I. Chaira
Substitution
Morocco
7 I. Chaira
A. Reina Campos
Substitution
Spain
5 A. Reina Campos
T. Fernández
Substitution
Argentina
15 T. Fernández
F. Viñas Barboza
Uruguay
9 F. Viñas Barboza
Pitch
A. Tenas Ureña
Spain
25 A. Tenas Ureña
S. Cardona Bermúdez
Spain
23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
R. Palma Veiga
Portugal
12 R. Palma Veiga
P. Navarro Badenes
Spain
6 P. Navarro Badenes
?. Mouriño González
Substitution
Uruguay
15 ?. Mouriño González
A. González Martínez
Substitution
Spain
11 A. González Martínez
D. Parejo Muñoz
Substitution
Spain
10 D. Parejo Muñoz
P. Gueye
Senegal
18 P. Gueye
T. Buchanan
Substitution
Canada
17 T. Buchanan
T. Oluwaseyi
Substitution
Nigeria
21 T. Oluwaseyi
N. Pépé
Ivory Coast
19 N. Pépé

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 23, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
Capacity :
5000
Attendance :
27092
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Asier Pérez de Mendiola González de Durana
Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
Iker De Francisco Grijalba
José Antonio Sánchez Villalobos

Statistics

Possession
OVI
57%
VIL
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 3
57 Dangerous attacks 34
58 Possession 42
7 Corners 0
11 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

14 Successful Dribbles 8
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
23 Throwins 23
79 Ball Safe 86
0 Penalties 1
5 Goal Kicks 11
24 Dribble Attempts 16
11 Goal Attempts 5
8 Successful Headers 11
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

134 Attacks 66
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

546 Passes 408
87 Successful Passes Percentage 82
476 Successful Passes 336
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
47 Long Passes 43
17 Successful Long Passes 23
11 Key Passes 6

Defensive

21 Tackles 20
53 Duels Won 48
2 Saves 3
11 Interceptions 10

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 2
39 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

9 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Starting XI

13
Aarón Escandell
Aarón Escandell Goalkeeper
7.19
2
Eric Bailly
Eric Bailly Defender
6.92
12
Dani Calvo
Dani Calvo Defender
6.82
22
Nacho Vidal
Nacho Vidal Defender
6.7
25
Javi López
Javi López Defender
6.61
3
Rahim Alhassane
Rahim Alhassane
Defender90'
6.68
5
Alberto Reina
Alberto Reina Midfielder
6.75
8
Santi Cazorla
Santi Cazorla
Midfielder72'
6.74
6
Kwasi Sibo
Kwasi Sibo Midfielder
6.61
14
Ovie Ejaria
Ovie Ejaria
Attacker71'
6.57
7
Ilyas Chaira
Ilyas Chaira Midfielder
6.68
27
Pablo Agudín
Pablo Agudín
Midfielder90+1'
6.26
11
Santiago Colombatto
Santiago Colombatto Midfielder
6.8
15
Thiago Fernández
Thiago Fernández Midfielder
6.55
10
Haissem Hassan
Haissem Hassan
Attacker71'
6.68
9
Federico Viñas
Federico Viñas Attacker
7.03
Referee : Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Starting XI

25
Arnau Tenas
Arnau Tenas Goalkeeper
6.35
6
Pau Navarro
Pau Navarro Defender
6.76
12
Renato Veiga
Renato Veiga Defender
6.67
15
Santiago Mouriño
Santiago Mouriño Defender
6.86
3
Alex Freeman
Alex Freeman
Defender78'
6.54
23
Sergi Cardona
Sergi Cardona Defender
6.78
10
Dani Parejo
Dani Parejo Midfielder
6.77
16
Thomas Partey
Thomas Partey
Midfielder78'
6.61
11
Alfon González
Alfon González Midfielder
6.6
20
Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro
Midfielder63'
6.96
17
Tajon Buchanan
Tajon Buchanan Midfielder
6.75
9
Georges Mikautadze
Georges Mikautadze
Attacker46'
6.93
18
Pape Gueye
Pape Gueye Midfielder
7.03
19
Nicolas Pépé
Nicolas Pépé Attacker
6.99
21
Tani Oluwaseyi
Tani Oluwaseyi Attacker
6.5
22
Ayoze Pérez
Ayoze Pérez
Attacker63'
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Alberto Moleiro
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Pablo Agudín Ilyas Chaira
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Rahim Alhassane Javi López
9th Substitution
90'
78'
Event
Alex Freeman Santiago Mouriño
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Thomas Partey Dani Parejo
8th Substitution
Event
Santi Cazorla Alberto Reina
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Haissem Hassan Thiago Fernández
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Ovie Ejaria Kwasi Sibo
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Ilyas Chaira
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
69'
63'
Event
Alberto Moleiro Alfon González
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Ayoze Pérez Tani Oluwaseyi
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Georges Mikautadze Tajon Buchanan
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Aarón Escandell
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
37'
13'
Event
Nicolas Pépé
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
9'
Event
Nicolas Pépé
Penalty awarded

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Haissem Hassan of Real Oviedo wins a free kick on the right wing.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alberto Moleiro from Villarreal receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between Real Oviedo and Villarreal.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Alberto Moleiro of Villarreal.
90
Update Update
Federico Viñas from Real Oviedo misses a header from the center of the box, sending it just left of the goal. He was assisted by Santi Cazorla, who delivered a cross after a set piece situation.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Pablo Agudín comes on for Ilyas Chaira.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Rahim Alhassane comes on for Javi López.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Santiago Colombatto of Real Oviedo takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes too high.
87
Update Update
Ayoze Pérez from Villarreal is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
87
Update Update
Foul by Santiago Colombatto of Real Oviedo.
85
Update Update
Pape Gueye from Villarreal wins a free kick in the attacking half.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Federico Viñas of Real Oviedo.
83
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Nacho Vidal of Real Oviedo has a right-footed shot from the right side of the box that goes too high, assisted by Federico Viñas.
83
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
81
Update Update
Ayoze Pérez from Villarreal hits the woodwork with a header from the center of the box.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Federico Viñas of Real Oviedo.
81
Update Update
Nicolas Pépé wins a free kick for Villarreal in the defensive half.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Javi López of Real Oviedo.
81
Update Update
Pape Gueye from Villarreal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
79
Update Update
Nicolas Pépé commits a handball for Villarreal.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Alexander Freeman comes on for Santiago Mouriño due to an injury.
77
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Santiago Mouriño of Villarreal.
74
Update Update
The match is currently delayed due to an injury to Santiago Mouriño of Villarreal.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Oviedo after a concession by Santiago Mouriño.
73
Corner Corner
Real Oviedo wins a corner after Sergi Cardona concedes.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Santi Cazorla comes on for Alberto Reina.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Haissem Hassan comes on for Thiago Fernández.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Oviedo: Ovie Ejaria comes on for Kwasi Sibo.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ilyas Chaira scores for Real Oviedo with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box. The match is now 1-1.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by Santiago Mouriño of Villarreal.
68
Update Update
Thiago Fernández from Real Oviedo wins a free kick in the defensive half.
68
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Mouriño from Villarreal misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
66
Attempt Attempt
Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo has a right-footed shot from a difficult angle and long range on the right, but it is blocked.
66
Corner Corner
Real Oviedo wins a corner after Sergi Cardona concedes.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Alberto Moleiro comes on for Alfon González.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Ayoze Pérez comes on for Tani Oluwaseyi.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Sergi Cardona of Villarreal.
60
Update Update
Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo wins a free kick on the right wing.
59
Corner Corner
Dani Calvo from Real Oviedo misses an attempt with a header from very close range, sending it just a bit too high. The chance was assisted by Santiago Colombatto, who delivered a cross after a corner.
58
Corner Corner
Real Oviedo win a corner after Renato Veiga concedes.
57
Attempt Attempt
Pape Gueye's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved.
54
Update Update
Federico Viñas of Real Oviedo is caught offside.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Oviedo after Pape Gueye concedes.
53
Corner Corner
Real Oviedo wins a corner after Pape Gueye concedes it.
51
Attempt Attempt
Thiago Fernández from Real Oviedo misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it high and wide to the right.
50
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Pau Navarro from Villarreal.
49
Update Update
Federico Viñas of Real Oviedo has a header from the center of the box blocked. The attempt was assisted by Ilyas Chaira's cross.
48
Attempt Attempt
Nacho Vidal's right-footed shot from a tough angle on the right is blocked. He was assisted by Thiago Fernández.
46
Update Update
Santiago Mouriño from Villarreal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Alberto Reina from Real Oviedo wins a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
Federico Viñas of Real Oviedo misses an attempt with a header from the center of the box.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Georges Mikautadze comes on for Tajon Buchanan.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ilyas Chaira's header from the center of the box is saved by Arnau Tenas in the center of the goal, following a cross from Javi López.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Villarreal leading 1-0 against Real Oviedo.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Pau Navarro of Villarreal.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Oviedo after a foul by Tajon Buchanan.
45
Update Update
Eric Bailly of Real Oviedo wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Pau Navarro of Villarreal.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Alfon González of Villarreal.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Real Oviedo 0, Villarreal 1.
43
Update Update
Pape Gueye from Villarreal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Alberto Reina of Real Oviedo.
40
Corner Corner
Real Oviedo wins a corner after Alfon González concedes.
39
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Eric Bailly of Real Oviedo.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aarón Escandell of Real Oviedo receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
37
Update Update
Offside called against Villarreal. Tani Oluwaseyi is the player caught offside.
36
Update Update
Pape Gueye from Villarreal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
36
Update Update
Pape Gueye from Villarreal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Renato Veiga of Villarreal.
34
Update Update
Santiago Colombatto of Real Oviedo wins a free kick in the defensive half.
32
Attempt Attempt
Nicolas Pépé from Villarreal misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Dani Parejo of Villarreal.
28
Update Update
Federico Viñas from Real Oviedo wins a free kick in the attacking half.
27
Attempt Attempt
Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Renato Veiga of Villarreal.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Renato Veiga of Villarreal.
23
Attempt Attempt
Thiago Fernández's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Arnau Tenas. The attempt was assisted by Ilyas Chaira.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by Ilyas Chaira of Real Oviedo.
21
Update Update
Sergi Cardona from Villarreal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
17
Update Update
Foul committed by Alfon González of Villarreal.
17
Update Update
Ilyas Chaira from Real Oviedo wins a free kick in the defensive half.
16
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Alfon González from Villarreal has a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box that is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Kwasi Sibo from Real Oviedo misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Villarreal wins a corner after Ilyas Chaira concedes.
11
Corner Corner
Villarreal win a corner after Ilyas Chaira concedes.
9
Update Update
VAR decision results in a penalty for Villarreal.
8
Update Update
VAR is checking a penalty for Villarreal.
8
Update Update
Dani Calvo of Real Oviedo concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
1
Update Update
Ilyas Chaira of Real Oviedo wins a free kick on the right wing.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Sergi Cardona of Villarreal.

CONCLUSION

Villarreal's inability to hold their halftime lead exposed vulnerabilities against Oviedo's persistent pressure and superior possession. The 1-1 result denies the visitors a crucial away win, despite their status as the stronger team, and boosts Oviedo's survival hopes in the league. This draw reflects a classic case of home resilience overriding favoritism, with both sides showing grit but lacking clinical finishing. Moving forward, Villarreal must sharpen their edge to match their potential, while Oviedo can draw confidence from clawing back against a higher-caliber opponent. A fair point in a balanced encounter.

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