Real Oviedo vs Deportivo Alavés Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM
La Liga
Real Oviedo OVI
0 Winner 1
Deportivo Alavés ALA
Full Time Sun, 17 May 5:00 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
|
Goal
Toni Martínez - 17'

CONTEXT

Real Oviedo faced Deportivo Alavés in a contest that concluded with a narrow 0-1 away victory. The home team controlled the majority of possession at 70 percent yet could not find the net despite sustained pressure. Deportivo Alavés struck early to lead at the interval and defended resolutely to preserve their advantage. The visitors operated efficiently with just 30 percent of the ball and capitalized on their limited chances. No disciplinary actions disrupted either side as both teams completed the fixture with full complements. Pre-match indicators identified Deportivo Alavés as the stronger side and the outcome followed that assessment. The result underscores how decisive moments can outweigh territorial dominance in determining the final scoreline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Oviedo held 70 percent possession but lost 0-1 to the visitors.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match team assessments.
  • xG alignment: No xG figures were recorded so alignment could not be evaluated.
  • Market alignment: The final result proved aligned with available market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG data prevented any direct comparison to expectations.
  • Event impact: The first-half goal proved decisive in securing the 0-1 victory.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred so the match proceeded without disciplinary distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Munuera Montero

Spain 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Martínez Moreno

1st Assistant

Spain

A. Díaz González

2nd Assistant

Spain

J. Figueiredo Comesaña

4th Official

Spain

League averages

La Liga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.03
Yellow cards / match 3.88
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.27
Real Oviedo J. Almada Álves
J. Almada Álves
VS
Deportivo Alavés E. Sánchez Flores
E. Sánchez Flores
0.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Madrid Rank: 92 L
Getafe Rank: 76 D
Real Betis Rank: 82 L
Elche Rank: 74 L
Villarreal Rank: 82 D
Celta de Vigo Rank: 80 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 W
Elche Rank: 74 D
Athletic Club Rank: 77 L
Mallorca Rank: 76 W
Real Madrid Rank: 92 L
Real Sociedad Rank: 80 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Real Oviedo
24.74%
Draw
28.71%
Away Deportivo Alavés
46.55%

Movement

Changes since opening
Real Oviedo
+24.55%
Draw
+23.62%
Deportivo Alavés
-48.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.78
76.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Real Oviedo
Deportivo Alavés
Power Score
59.78
76.68
League Position
20
15
Global Rank
188
91

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Real Oviedo — Opponent-weighted form score
Deportivo Alavés — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Real Oviedo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Deportivo Alavés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Real Oviedo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Deportivo Alavés
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Real Oviedo
Deportivo Alavés
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Real Oviedo
vs
Deportivo Alavés
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Real Oviedo 0.00
Deportivo Alavés 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Real Oviedo Deportivo Alavés
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Real Oviedo 0.00
Deportivo Alavés 0.00
Real Oviedo
Deportivo Alavés
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • OVI had peak pressure around 44'.
  • OVI started the game with stronger pressure.
OVI Pressure ALA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: OVI reached the top pressure at 44' (63.90).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Real Oviedo OVI Home
5 matches
Deportivo Alavés ALA Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
4
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T16:46:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
H. Moldovan
Romania
1 H. Moldovan
L. Ahijado Quintana
Substitution
Spain
24 L. Ahijado Quintana
D. Costas Cordal
Spain
4 D. Costas Cordal
D. Calvo San Román
Spain
12 D. Calvo San Román
J. López Carballo
Spain
25 J. López Carballo
N. Fonseca
Substitution
Italy
23 N. Fonseca
S. Colombatto
Substitution
Argentina
11 S. Colombatto
H. Hassan
Substitution
France
10 H. Hassan
S. Cazorla González
Spain
8 S. Cazorla González
A. Reina Campos
Spain
5 A. Reina Campos
F. Viñas Barboza
Substitution
Uruguay
9 F. Viñas Barboza
Pitch
A. Sivera Salvá
Spain
1 A. Sivera Salvá
V. Parada González
Spain
24 V. Parada González
V. Koski
Finland
16 V. Koski
N. Tenaglia
Argentina
14 N. Tenaglia
A. Rebbach
Substitution
Algeria
21 A. Rebbach
D. Suárez Fernández
Substitution
Spain
4 D. Suárez Fernández
A. Blanco Conde
Spain
8 A. Blanco Conde
J. Guridi Aldalur
Substitution
Spain
18 J. Guridi Aldalur
A. Pérez Hidalgo
Spain
7 A. Pérez Hidalgo
A. Martínez López
Substitution
Spain
11 A. Martínez López
I. Diabate
Substitution
Ivory Coast
22 I. Diabate

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
Capacity :
30500
Attendance :
21111
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
José Luis Munuera Montero
Antonio Ramón Martínez Moreno
Adrián Díaz González
Javier Figueiredo Comesaña

Statistics

Possession
OVI
63%
ALA
37%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 7
56 Dangerous attacks 35
70 Possession 30
5 Corners 2
18 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Injuries 1
23 Throwins 19
19 Successful Headers 9
20 Dribble Attempts 11
7 Successful Dribbles 6
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
4 Goal Kicks 8
68 Ball Safe 60
3 Goal Attempts 4
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

107 Attacks 73
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

488 Successful Passes 177
48 Long Passes 58
553 Passes 248
88 Successful Passes Percentage 71
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
25 Successful Long Passes 22
6 Key Passes 5

Defensive

51 Duels Won 49
7 Interceptions 9
10 Tackles 21

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 8
7 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

13 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : José Luis Munuera Montero

Starting XI ▼

1
Horațiu Moldovan
Horațiu Moldovan Goalkeeper
6.41
4
David Costas
David Costas Defender
6.74
12
Dani Calvo
Dani Calvo Defender
6.83
24
Lucas Ahijado
Lucas Ahijado Defender
6.65
22
Nacho Vidal
Nacho Vidal
Defender85'
6.67
25
Javi López
Javi López Defender
6.58
5
Alberto Reina
Alberto Reina Midfielder
6.79
8
Santi Cazorla
Santi Cazorla Midfielder
6.74
10
Haissem Hassan
Haissem Hassan Midfielder
6.67
17
Thiago Borbas
Thiago Borbas
Attacker79'
6.5
11
Santiago Colombatto
Santiago Colombatto Midfielder
6.79
7
Ilyas Chaira
Ilyas Chaira
Attacker66'
6.73
23
Nicolás Fonseca
Nicolás Fonseca Midfielder
6.7
15
Thiago Fernández
Thiago Fernández
Attacker46'
6.58
9
Federico Viñas
Federico Viñas Attacker
7.03
19
Álex Forés
Álex Forés
Attacker79'
6.53
Referee : José Luis Munuera Montero

Starting XI ▼

1
Antonio Sivera
Antonio Sivera Goalkeeper
6.72
14
Nahuel Tenaglia
Nahuel Tenaglia Defender
6.87
16
Ville Koski
Ville Koski Defender
6.84
24
Victor Parada
Victor Parada Defender
6.52
4
Denis Suárez
Denis Suárez Midfielder
6.63
19
Pablo Ibáñez
Pablo Ibáñez
Midfielder68'
6.75
7
Ángel Pérez
Ángel Pérez Midfielder
6.7
8
Antonio Blanco
Antonio Blanco Midfielder
6.96
18
Jon Guridi
Jon Guridi Midfielder
6.55
23
Carlos Protesoni
Carlos Protesoni
Midfielder87'
6.56
21
Abde Rebbach
Abde Rebbach Midfielder
6.74
3
Youssef Enríquez
Youssef Enríquez
Defender46'
6.58
11
Toni Martínez
Toni Martínez Attacker
7.14
15
Lucas Boyé
Lucas Boyé
Attacker82'
6.92
22
Ibrahim Diabaté
Ibrahim Diabaté Attacker
6.7
34
Aitor Mañas
Aitor Mañas
Attacker69'
6.44

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Youssef Enríquez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Carlos Protesoni → Jon Guridi
10th Substitution
Event
Nacho Vidal → Lucas Ahijado
9th Substitution
85'
82'
Event
Lucas Boyé → Toni Martínez
8th Substitution
Event
Álex Forés → Federico Viñas
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Thiago Borbas → Haissem Hassan
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Lucas Ahijado
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
71'
69'
Event
Aitor Mañas → Ibrahim Diabaté
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Pablo Ibáñez → Denis Suárez
4th Substitution
Event
Ilyas Chaira → Santiago Colombatto
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Federico Viñas
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Thiago Fernández
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
48'
Event
Thiago Fernández → Nicolás Fonseca
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Youssef Enríquez → Abde Rebbach
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
17'
Event
Toni Martínez
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Thiago Fernandez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Thiago Fernandez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
87
Update Update
Carlos Nahuel Benavidez Protesoni comes on for Jon Guridi.
85
Attempt Attempt
David Costas attempts a header but misses the shot.
85
Update Update
Ignacio Vidal Miralles comes on for Lucas Ahijado.
82
Update Update
Lucas Boye is on, and Antonio Martinez Lopez is off.
80
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Ahijado takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
79
Update Update
Thiago Nicolas Borbas is on, and Haissem Hassan is off.
79
Update Update
Alex Fores is on, and Federico Sebastian Vinas Barboza is off.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lucas Ahijado receives a yellow card.
71
Attempt Attempt
Nahuel Tenaglia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Update Update
Aitor Manas comes on for Ibrahim Diabate.
69
Update Update
Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras comes on for Denis Suarez Fernandez.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Federico Sebastian Vinas Barboza receives a yellow card.
52
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Diabate takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Angel Perez takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Angel Perez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thiago Fernandez receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Thiago Fernandez comes on for Nicolas Fonseca.
46
Update Update
Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim comes on for Abde Rebbach.
43
Update Update
Federico Sebastian Vinas Barboza's header is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Jon Guridi attempts a header but misses the shot.
32
Attempt Attempt
Nahuel Tenaglia attempts a header but misses the shot.
25
Attempt Attempt
David Costas attempts a header but misses the shot.
17
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Martinez Lopez takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
12
Attempt Attempt
Federico Sebastian Vinas Barboza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Ahijado takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Real Oviedo 0-1 Deportivo Alavés. Structural assessment: Deportivo Alavés exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Real Oviedo vs Deportivo Alavés preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.