RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Red Bull Arena Sat, 9 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
RB Leipzig RBL
2 Winner 1
St. Pauli PAU
Full Time Sat, 9 May 1:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Willi Orbán - 54'
Xaver Schlager - 45'
Goal
|
Goal
Abdoulie Ceesay - 86'

CONTEXT

RB Leipzig claimed a 2-1 victory over St. Pauli, asserting dominance throughout the match. The home team led 1-0 at halftime, capitalizing on 70% possession to control proceedings. St. Pauli responded with a goal in the second half but failed to equalize against Leipzig's pressure. As the stronger team, Leipzig delivered a performance with minimal structural deviation of 3.9%, staying true to expectations. No red cards disrupted play, and efficiency remained in line. Without xG data, the outcome reflected Leipzig's superiority in a straightforward win, securing vital points with disciplined execution and sustained intensity.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: RB Leipzig showed minimal structural deviation of 3.9%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments significantly impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Brand

Germany 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Stein

1st Assistant

Germany

M. Achmüller

2nd Assistant

Germany

E. Weisbach

4th Official

Germany

League averages

Bundesliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 16.84
Yellow cards / match 3.08
Red cards / match 0.19
Penalties / match 0.29
RB Leipzig O. Werner
O. Werner
VS
St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
1.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.83
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 73 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 W
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 75 W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 85 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 80 L
Heidenheim Rank: 70 L
FC Köln Rank: 75 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
FC Union Berlin Rank: 74 D
SC Freiburg Rank: 83 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home RB Leipzig
96.07%
Draw
3.73%
Away St. Pauli
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
RB Leipzig
+1.35%
Draw
-1.36%
St. Pauli
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
87.18
71.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
RB Leipzig
St. Pauli
Power Score
87.18
71.53
League Position
3
17
Global Rank
25
172

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
RB Leipzig — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) RB Leipzig St. Pauli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

RB Leipzig

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

St. Pauli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

RB Leipzig ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Pauli
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.21
27.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.00
23.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
RB Leipzig -0.33 Efficiency Index
vs
St. Pauli +0.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
RB Leipzig
St. Pauli
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

RB Leipzig ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Pauli
Created Set-piece attacking threat
RB Leipzig St. Pauli
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
RB Leipzig St. Pauli
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
RB Leipzig
St. Pauli
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
RB Leipzig
vs
St. Pauli
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
RB Leipzig St. Pauli
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
RB Leipzig 0.20
St. Pauli 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
RB Leipzig St. Pauli
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
RB Leipzig 0.05
St. Pauli 0.03
RB Leipzig
St. Pauli
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RBL had peak pressure around 47'.
  • RBL started the game with stronger pressure.
RBL Pressure PAU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RBL reached the top pressure at 47' (91.67).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

RB Leipzig RBL Home
3 matches
St. Pauli PAU Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T00:02:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Vandevoordt
Belgium
26 M. Vandevoordt
R. Baku
Substitution
Germany
17 R. Baku
W. Orban
Hungary
4 W. Orban
C. Lukeba
France
23 C. Lukeba
D. Raum
Substitution
Germany
22 D. Raum
F. Ouedraogo
Substitution
Germany
20 F. Ouedraogo
X. Schlager
Austria
24 X. Schlager
C. Baumgartner
Austria
14 C. Baumgartner
B. Gruda
Substitution
Germany
10 B. Gruda
R. Cardoso da Cruz
Brazil
40 R. Cardoso da Cruz
Y. Diomande
49 Y. Diomande
Pitch
N. Vasilj
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 N. Vasilj
L. Ritzka
Substitution
Germany
21 L. Ritzka
E. Smith
Substitution
Sweden
8 E. Smith
T. Ando
Japan
15 T. Ando
L. Oppie
Substitution
Germany
23 L. Oppie
J. Fujita
Japan
16 J. Fujita
J. Irvine
Australia
7 J. Irvine
C. Metcalfe
Substitution
Australia
24 C. Metcalfe
A. Pyrka
Poland
11 A. Pyrka
A. Hountondji
Substitution
France
27 A. Hountondji
M. Kaars
Netherlands
19 M. Kaars

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Red Bull Arena
Capacity :
47069
Attendance :
47800
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Thomas Stein
Marco Achmüller
Eric-dominic Weisbach
Benjamin Brand

Statistics

Possession
RBL
66%
PAU
34%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 4
65 Dangerous attacks 22
70 Possession 30
3 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 5
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

11 Successful Dribbles 5
3 Goal Kicks 10
1 Hit Woodwork 1
21 Throwins 10
22 Dribble Attempts 6
7 Successful Headers 11
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 83
92 Ball Safe 80
8 Goal Attempts 4
2 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
129 Attacks 47

Possession

25 Successful Long Passes 14
731 Passes 298
89 Successful Passes Percentage 71
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
647 Successful Passes 212
53 Long Passes 49
9 Key Passes 6

Defensive

39 Duels Won 46
2 Saves 3
6 Interceptions 10
13 Tackles 25

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 3
15 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
5 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Benjamin Brand

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Vandevoordt
Maarten Vandevoordt Goalkeeper
4
Willi Orbán
Willi Orbán Defender
17
Ridle Baku
Ridle Baku Defender
39
Benjamin Henrichs
Benjamin Henrichs
Defender90+1'
22
David Raum
David Raum Defender
35
Max Finkgräfe
Max Finkgräfe
Defender69'
23
Castello Lukeba
Castello Lukeba Defender
14
Christoph Baumgartner
Christoph Baumgartner Midfielder
20
Assan Ouédraogo
Assan Ouédraogo Midfielder
13
Nicolas Seiwald
Nicolas Seiwald
Midfielder69'
24
Xaver Schlager
Xaver Schlager Midfielder
10
Brajan Gruda
Brajan Gruda Attacker
7
Antonio Nusa
Antonio Nusa
Midfielder79'
40
Rômulo
Rômulo Attacker
49
Yan Diomande
Yan Diomande Attacker
Referee : Benjamin Brand

Starting XI ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
8
Eric Smith
Eric Smith Defender
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen
Midfielder89'
15
T. Ando
T. Ando Defender
21
Lars Ritzka
Lars Ritzka Defender
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl
Defender64'
7
Jackson Irvine
Jackson Irvine Midfielder
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Midfielder
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Midfielder
23
Louis Oppie
Louis Oppie Midfielder
14
Fin Stevens
Fin Stevens
Defender64'
24
Connor Metcalfe
Connor Metcalfe Midfielder
10
Danel Sinani
Danel Sinani
Attacker89'
19
Martijn Kaars
Martijn Kaars Attacker
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji Attacker
9
Abdoulie Ceesay
Abdoulie Ceesay
Attacker72'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Benjamin Henrichs → Ridle Baku
9th Substitution
90+1'
89'
Event
Mathias Rasmussen → Eric Smith
7th Substitution
89'
Event
Danel Sinani → Connor Metcalfe
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Abdoulie Ceesay
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Antonio Nusa → Brajan Gruda
6th Substitution
79'
72'
Event
Abdoulie Ceesay → Andréas Hountondji
5th Substitution
Event
Nicolas Seiwald → Assan Ouédraogo
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Max Finkgräfe → David Raum
3rd Substitution
69'
64'
Event
Fin Stevens → Louis Oppie
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Hauke Wahl → Lars Ritzka
2nd Substitution
Event
Willi Orbán
Header / 2nd Goal
54'
Event
Christoph Baumgartner
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
1ST-HALF
Event
Xaver Schlager
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45'
Event
Castello Lukeba
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
19'

Match Commentary

86
Update Update
Joel Chima Fujita of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Xaver Schlager of RB Leipzig.
81
Update Update
Xaver Schlager from RB Leipzig won a free kick in the attacking area.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Tomoya Ando of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Jackson Irvine against FC St. Pauli.
79
Update Update
Xaver Schlager of RB Leipzig won a free kick in defense.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Antonio Nusa replaces Brajan Gruda.
77
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Christoph Baumgartner from RB Leipzig shot with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went high and wide to the right.
76
Update Update
Ridle Baku of RB Leipzig won a free kick on the right wing.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Abdoulie Ceesay of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
75
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Xaver Schlager concedes.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Abdoulie Ceesay replaces Andréas Hountondji.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Nicolas Seiwald replaces Assan Ouédraogo.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for RB Leipzig: Max Finkgräfe replaces David Raum.
67
Corner Corner
RB Leipzig wins a corner after Fin Stevens concedes.
66
Update Update
Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig won a free kick in defense.
66
Update Update
Joel Chima Fujita from FC St. Pauli Hamburg committed a foul.
65
Update Update
Tomoya Ando of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Brajan Gruda of RB Leipzig.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Fin Stevens replaces Louis Oppie.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Hauke Wahl replaces Lars Ritzka.
63
Update Update
Offside called against RB Leipzig. Rômulo is offside.
61
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Louis Oppie of FC St. Pauli Hamburg shoots with his right foot from the left side of the box, but Maarten Vandevoordt of RB Leipzig saves it in the left corner. The assist came from Andréas Hountondji with a through ball.
60
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Xaver Schlager concedes.
60
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Castello Lukeba concedes.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! RB Leipzig leads 2-0 against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Willi Orbán scores with a header from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by David Raum's cross after a corner.
54
Attempt Attempt
Assan Ouédraogo from RB Leipzig hits the right post with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Yan Diomande.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to RB Leipzig after Eric Smith concedes.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Christoph Baumgartner of RB Leipzig receives a yellow card for a foul.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Christoph Baumgartner of RB Leipzig.
50
Update Update
Tomoya Ando of FC St. Pauli Hamburg earned a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Christoph Baumgartner's header from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from David Raum's cross.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with RB Leipzig leading FC St. Pauli Hamburg 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! RB Leipzig leads 1-0 against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Xaver Schlager scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the top right corner, assisted by Christoph Baumgartner after a corner.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at RB Leipzig 1, FC St. Pauli Hamburg 0.
44
Corner Corner
RB Leipzig is awarded a corner after Arkadiusz Pyrka concedes it.
43
Attempt Attempt
Christoph Baumgartner from RB Leipzig missed a chance, heading the ball from the center of the box high and wide to the right. Brajan Gruda provided the assist.
41
Update Update
Brajan Gruda from RB Leipzig misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the left.
36
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Willi Orbán concedes.
36
Attempt Attempt
Connor Metcalfe's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Martijn Kaars.
34
Attempt Attempt
Martijn Kaars from FC St. Pauli Hamburg hits the bar with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Andréas Hountondji after a fast break.
32
Attempt Attempt
Arkadiusz Pyrka's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Connor Metcalfe.
27
Attempt Attempt
Rômulo from RB Leipzig had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but missing to the left. Assan Ouédraogo provided the assist.
24
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Castello Lukeba concedes.
22
Update Update
Arkadiusz Pyrka from FC St. Pauli Hamburg committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Castello Lukeba of RB Leipzig won a free kick in defense.
21
Attempt Attempt
Eric Smith from FC St. Pauli Hamburg had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box after a free kick, but it went close and missed the target.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Castello Lukeba of RB Leipzig.
19
Update Update
Andréas Hountondji of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in the attacking area.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Castello Lukeba of RB Leipzig receives a yellow card for a foul.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Brajan Gruda of RB Leipzig.
18
Update Update
Louis Oppie of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in an attacking position.
14
Update Update
Ridle Baku from RB Leipzig won a free kick on the right wing.
14
Update Update
Fouled by Louis Oppie of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
12
Update Update
Assan Ouédraogo of RB Leipzig won a free kick in defense.
12
Update Update
Joel Chima Fujita from FC St. Pauli Hamburg committed a foul.
11
Attempt Attempt
Brajan Gruda's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Assan Ouédraogo provided the assist.
8
Update Update
Ridle Baku of RB Leipzig is flagged for offside.
8
Update Update
Christoph Baumgartner from RB Leipzig makes an attacking attempt, shooting with his left foot from a few meters out, but Nikola Vasilj, the goalkeeper for FC St. Pauli Hamburg, saves it in the center of the goal.
8
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Brajan Gruda from RB Leipzig takes a left-footed shot from a few meters out, but it goes wide.

CONCLUSION

RB Leipzig's 2-1 triumph over St. Pauli validated their status as the stronger side, with 70% possession and a halftime lead translating into control. Minimal 3.9% structural deviation and true market alignment underscored a predictable result. Efficiency held steady without disruptions, as no red cards or events altered dynamics. Lacking xG insights, the scoreline captured Leipzig's edge, highlighting effective play and resilience against St. Pauli's fightback for a clean, professional victory.

RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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