Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga, Spain

Estadio de Vallecas Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM

La Liga

Rayo Vallecano RAY

Villarreal VIL

KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM

Round 37 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Rayo Vallecano welcomes Villarreal to Estadio de Vallecas for a La Liga regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. The hosts sit ninth in the standings, trailing the third-placed visitors who boast a superior power score of 83.04 against Rayo's 78.71, granting Villarreal a 4.3-point edge. Recent form tilts slightly toward the away side with 24 points compared to Rayo's 20.5. At home, Rayo will leverage their passionate crowd, but Villarreal's higher league position underscores their consistency. Both teams lack detailed last outings, yet Villarreal's structural advantages position them favorably. Set-piece data remains unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage, leaving efficiency and transition play as unknowns. This matchup promises intensity as Rayo aims to upset the higher-ranked foes.

TL;DR

Structural: Villarreal possesses a structural edge with a power score of 83.04 versus Rayo Vallecano's 78.71 and occupies 3rd place compared to 9th.
Form: Villarreal shows stronger form at 24 points against Rayo Vallecano's 20.5.
Squad: Villarreal's squad underpins their higher power rating and top-three standing.
Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
Transition: Transition metrics not provided for Rayo Vallecano or Villarreal.
Set pieces: Set-piece stats show low confidence with proxy data used and no xG available.
xVariable: xG-related variables absent due to add-on not enabled.
Market: Rayo Vallecano 40.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.3% (Δ+0%) | Villarreal 33.2% (Δ+0%).

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Jan 25 vs Team A

Feb 1 vs Team B

Feb 8 vs Team C

I. Pérez Soto

M. García Toral

1.21

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.79

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

4 - 3 - 13

No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Rayo Vallecano

40.51%

Draw

26.33%

Villarreal

33.16%

Team Power Ranking

78.71

83.04

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Rayo Vallecano

Villarreal

Power Score

78.71

83.04

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score

Villarreal — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rayo Vallecano Villarreal

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rayo Vallecano RAY Home

20 matches

Villarreal VIL Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-27

Goal Difference

+27

Data last updated: 2026-05-15T01:07:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3

Match Formation 4-4-2

13 A. Batalla Barga

2 A. Ratiu

6 P. Ciss

24 F. Lejeune

3 J. Chavarría Pérez

4 P. Díaz Fanjul

23 Ó. Martín Luengo

17 U. López Cabrera

19 J. De Frutos Sebastián

10 S. Camello Pérez

21 F. Perez Martinez

25 A. Tenas Ureña

24 A. Pedraza Sag

12 R. Palma Veiga

6 P. Navarro Badenes

3 A. Freeman

20 A. Moleiro González

18 P. Gueye

10 D. Parejo Muñoz

19 N. Pépé

9 G. Mikautadze

7 G. Moreno Balaguero

General Information

Date & Time :

May 17, 2026, 05:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 37 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Estadio de Vallecas

Capacity :

14708

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Lineup

Manager ▼

I. Pérez Soto Coach

Starting XI ▼

Augusto Batalla Goalkeeper

6.91

Andrei Rațiu Defender

6.95

Pep Chavarría Defender

6.8

Pathé Ciss Defender

6.93

Florian Lejeune Defender

7.1

Pedro Díaz Midfielder

6.71

Unai López Midfielder

6.85

Óscar Valentín Midfielder

6.8

Sergio Camello Attacker

6.62

Jorge de Frutos Attacker

6.9

Fran Pérez Attacker

6.6

Manager ▼

M. García Toral Coach

Starting XI ▼

Arnau Tenas Goalkeeper

6.65

Alex Freeman Defender

6.68

Pau Navarro Defender

6.76

Renato Veiga Defender

6.7

Alfonso Pedraza Defender

6.77

Dani Parejo Midfielder

6.8

Pape Gueye Midfielder

Nicolas Pépé Midfielder

7.05

Alberto Moleiro Midfielder

6.93

Gerard Moreno Attacker

7.12

Georges Mikautadze Attacker

6.99

CONCLUSION

Villarreal arrives as the stronger outfit, backed by superior power metrics and a loftier league perch, yet Rayo Vallecano's home fortress at Vallecas could spark an upset. Form edges to the visitors, but without granular efficiency or set-piece insights, the contest hinges on execution. Rayo's ninth-place grit meets Villarreal's third-place polish in a balanced affair. Expect a tactical battle where Villarreal's 4.3-point advantage might prevail, though the hosts' resilience demands respect. Key moments will define this La Liga encounter.

Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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STANDINGS

CONTEXT