Rayo Vallecano vs Strasbourg Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe

Estadio de Vallecas Thu, 30 Apr - 7:00 PM

Europa Conference League

Rayo Vallecano RAY

Strasbourg STR

Full Time Thu, 30 Apr 7:00 PM

Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2

Alexandre Zurawski - 54'

CONTEXT

In the first leg of their two-legged knockout tie, Rayo Vallecano edged out Strasbourg 1-0 at home, securing a vital advantage. The game was scoreless at halftime, with both teams locked in a cautious battle. Rayo Vallecano held 53% possession and gradually asserted control in the second half, converting their pressure into the match's only goal. Despite Strasbourg entering as the stronger team on paper, Rayo's defensive solidity and opportunistic attack made the difference. No red cards disrupted the flow, allowing a fair contest that showcased tactical discipline from both sides. This narrow victory leaves the tie delicately poised for the second leg, where Strasbourg will aim to overturn the deficit. Rayo's performance defied expectations slightly, highlighting their home resilience in high-stakes encounters.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Rayo Vallecano's 1-0 win showed a significant 54.9% structural deviation favoring the home side.
Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without match data.
Event impact: No major events like second-half adjustments altered the game's structure.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to match dynamics.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

D. Rumšas

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Radiušas

1st Assistant

D. Sužiedėlis

2nd Assistant

I. Peljto

4th Official

I. Pérez Soto

G. O'Neil

1.88

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

2.38

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 0 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Rayo Vallecano

45.07%

Draw

27.78%

Strasbourg

27.15%

Movement

Changes since opening

Rayo Vallecano

-51%

Draw

+24.05%

Strasbourg

+26.96%

Team Power Ranking

76.99

78.28

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Rayo Vallecano

Strasbourg

Power Score

76.99

78.28

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Rayo Vallecano — Opponent-weighted form score

Strasbourg — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rayo Vallecano Strasbourg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Rayo Vallecano

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Strasbourg

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rayo Vallecano ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Strasbourg

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

53.11

16.49

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

16.49

53.11

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Rayo Vallecano +3.00 Efficiency Index

Strasbourg -3.00 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Rayo Vallecano

Strasbourg

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rayo Vallecano ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Strasbourg

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Rayo Vallecano Strasbourg

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Rayo Vallecano Strasbourg

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Rayo Vallecano

Strasbourg

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Rayo Vallecano

Strasbourg

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Rayo Vallecano Strasbourg

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Rayo Vallecano Strasbourg

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Rayo Vallecano

Strasbourg

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

RAY had peak pressure around 94'.
RAY started the game with stronger pressure.

RAY Pressure STR Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: RAY reached the top pressure at 94' (78.50).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rayo Vallecano RAY Home

0 matches

Strasbourg STR Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T00:02:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

13 A. Batalla Barga

2 A. Ratiu

24 F. Lejeune

6 P. Ciss

3 J. Chavarría Pérez

17 U. López Cabrera

23 Ó. Martín Luengo

19 J. De Frutos Sebastián

7 I. Palazón Camacho

12 Ilias Chakkour

9 A. Zurawski

39 M. Penders

3 B. Chilwell

6 I. Doukoure

2 A. Omobamidele

24 L. Høgsberg

42 G. Ouattara

29 S. El Mourabet

20 M. Godo

19 J. Enciso

7 D. da Silva Moreira

10 E. Esseh Emegha

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 30, 2026, 07:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2

Stadium :

Estadio de Vallecas

Capacity :

14708

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Donatas Rumšas

Aleksandras Radiušas

Dovydas Sužiedėlis

Irfan Peljto

Statistics

Possession

RAY

54%

STR

46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0

1 Big Chances Created 0

10 Shots 2

83 Dangerous attacks 55

53 Possession 47

5 Corners 1

14 Free kicks 15

4 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

14 Dribble Attempts 25

6 Successful Dribbles 15

22 Throwins 20

81 Ball Safe 83

17 Goal Attempts 3

43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60

3 Goal Kicks 11

2 Injuries 0

1 Assists 0

4 Substitutions 3

Attacking

109 Attacks 89

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

18 Key Passes 5

382 Passes 344

33 Successful Long Passes 23

317 Successful Passes 262

83 Successful Passes Percentage 76

56 Long Passes 55

59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

15 Tackles 17

10 Interceptions 10

0 Saves 7

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2

23 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

15 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Donatas Rumšas

Manager ▼

I. Pérez Soto Coach

Starting XI ▼

Augusto Batalla Goalkeeper

6.84

Andrei Rațiu Defender

6.64

Pep Chavarría Defender

6.88

Pathé Ciss Defender

6.97

Florian Lejeune Defender

7.25

Isi Palazón Midfielder

6.95

Sergio Camello

Attacker88'

6.81

Ilias Akhomach Midfielder

6.71

Unai López Midfielder

7.18

Gerard Gumbau

Midfielder90+4'

7.26

Jorge de Frutos Midfielder

6.92

Alfonso Espino

Defender89'

6.9

Óscar Valentín Midfielder

6.8

Alexandre Zurawski Attacker

6.92

Pedro Díaz

Midfielder64'

6.86

Substitutes ▼

Pedro Díaz

Midfielder64'

6.86

Sergio Camello

Attacker88'

6.81

Alfonso Espino

Defender89'

6.9

Gerard Gumbau

Midfielder90+4'

7.26

Bench ▼

Dani Cárdenas Goalkeeper

6.5

Adrián Molina Goalkeeper

Iván Balliu Defender

6.71

Nobel Mendy Defender

6.49

Oscar Trejo Midfielder

6.68

Referee : Donatas Rumšas