Rangers vs Motherwell Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Ibrox Stadium Sun, 26 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Rangers RAN
2 Winner 3
Motherwell MOT
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 34 2nd Phase
Nicolas Raskin - 70'
Youssef Chermiti - 51'
Goal
|
Goal
Emmanuel Longelo - 90', 25'
Lukas Fadinger - 16'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Rangers 2–3 Motherwell. The result saw Motherwell take the points. Motherwell showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 51%–49%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited moderate structural deviation of 7.5% favoring Motherwell.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No significant events or adjustments altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

K. Clancy

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Stewart

1st Assistant

C. Rae

2nd Assistant

G. Grainger

4th Official

Rangers D. Röhl
D. Röhl
VS
Motherwell J. Askou
J. Askou
2.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.79
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Falkirk Rank: W
Dundee United Rank: W
Aberdeen Rank: W
St. Mirren Rank: W
Celtic Rank: D
Livingston Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hearts Rank: L
Falkirk Rank: L
Hibernian Rank: D
Celtic Rank: L
Dundee Rank: L
Dundee United Rank: W
36
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
36 - 17 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rangers
0.19%
Draw
7.33%
Away Motherwell
92.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
42.89
20.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rangers
Motherwell
Power Score
42.89
20.65
League Position
3
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Motherwell — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rangers Motherwell

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Motherwell

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rangers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motherwell
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.67
22.24
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.24
36.67
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rangers +1.42 Efficiency Index
vs
Motherwell -1.42 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rangers
Motherwell
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rangers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Motherwell
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rangers Motherwell
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rangers Motherwell
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rangers
Motherwell
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rangers
vs
Motherwell
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rangers Motherwell
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rangers 0.30
Motherwell 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rangers Motherwell
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rangers 0.08
Motherwell 0.04
Rangers
Motherwell
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAN had peak pressure around 80'.
  • RAN started the game with stronger pressure.
RAN Pressure MOT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAN reached the top pressure at 80' (90.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 55 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rangers RAN Home
55 matches
Motherwell MOT Away
Match Record
36
Wins
2
17
Draws
17
2
Losses
36
Goals
126
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
126
+81
Goal Difference
-81

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:05:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Butland
England
1 J. Butland
D. Sterling
Substitution
England
21 D. Sterling
N. Djiga
Burkina Faso
24 N. Djiga
E. Fernandez
England
37 E. Fernandez
J. Meghoma
Substitution
England
30 J. Meghoma
N. Raskin
Belgium
43 N. Raskin
T. Chukwuani
Substitution
Denmark
42 T. Chukwuani
T. Aasgaard
Substitution
Norway
11 T. Aasgaard
D. Gassama
France
23 D. Gassama
B. Miovski
Substitution
Macedonia
28 B. Miovski
Y. Ramalho Chermiti
Portugal
9 Y. Ramalho Chermiti
Pitch
C. Ward
England
13 C. Ward
S. O'Donnell
Scotland
2 S. O'Donnell
S. Welsh
Substitution
Scotland
57 S. Welsh
P. McGinn
Scotland
16 P. McGinn
T. Sparrow
Substitution
Wales
7 T. Sparrow
E. Watt
Scotland
20 E. Watt
L. Fadinger
Austria
12 L. Fadinger
M. Emmanuel
England
45 M. Emmanuel
C. Slattery
Substitution
England
8 C. Slattery
T. Maswanhise
Substitution
Zimbabwe
18 T. Maswanhise
E. Just
Substitution
New Zealand
21 E. Just

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 34 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Ibrox Stadium
Capacity :
50817
Attendance :
50970
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kevin Clancy
Graeme Stewart
Chris Rae
Graham Grainger

Statistics

Possession
RAN
52%
MOT
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
6 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 4
54 Dangerous attacks 38
51 Possession 49
7 Corners 5
10 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Injuries 2
18 Dribble Attempts 15
72 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
5 Goal Kicks 8
23 Throwins 19
13 Successful Dribbles 4
58 Ball Safe 77
2 Assists 3
5 Substitutions 3

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 0
105 Attacks 71

Possession

425 Passes 419
82 Successful Passes Percentage 82
348 Successful Passes 344
18 Successful Long Passes 33
11 Key Passes 6
39 Long Passes 64
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

12 Interceptions 8
22 Tackles 20
64 Duels Won 46
2 Saves 3

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 3
27 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
15 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Kevin Clancy

Starting XI ▼

1
Jack Butland
Jack Butland Goalkeeper
6.91
21
Dujon Sterling
Dujon Sterling Defender
6.9
3
Max Aarons
Max Aarons
Defender77'
6.83
24
Nasser Djiga
Nasser Djiga Defender
6.98
30
Jayden Meghoma
Jayden Meghoma Defender
6.81
2
James Tavernier
James Tavernier
Defender46'
7.44
37
Emmanuel Fernandez
Emmanuel Fernandez Defender
7.32
11
Thelo Aasgaard
Thelo Aasgaard Midfielder
7.05
8
Connor Barron
Connor Barron
Midfielder86'
6.93
23
Djeidi Gassama
Djeidi Gassama Midfielder
6.99
42
Tochi Chukwuani
Tochi Chukwuani Midfielder
6.91
10
Mohamed Diomandé
Mohamed Diomandé
Midfielder46'
6.77
43
Nicolas Raskin
Nicolas Raskin Midfielder
7.32
9
Youssef Chermiti
Youssef Chermiti Attacker
7.09
28
Bojan Miovski
Bojan Miovski Attacker
6.8
47
Mikey Moore
Mikey Moore
Attacker46'
6.85
Referee : Kevin Clancy

Starting XI ▼

13
Calum Ward
Calum Ward Goalkeeper
7.07
2
Stephen O'Donnell
Stephen O'Donnell Defender
6.82
7
Tom Sparrow
Tom Sparrow Defender
6.64
4
Liam Gordon
Liam Gordon
Defender90+2'
6.77
16
Paul McGinn
Paul McGinn Defender
6.98
57
Stephen Welsh
Stephen Welsh Defender
6.46
6
Jordan McGhee
Jordan McGhee
Defender56'
6.51
8
Callum Slattery
Callum Slattery Midfielder
7.21
66
Callum Hendry
Callum Hendry
Attacker90+2'
6.74
12
Lukas Fadinger
Lukas Fadinger Midfielder
6.9
18
Tawanda Maswanhise
Tawanda Maswanhise Midfielder
7.05
77
Regan Charles-Cook
Regan Charles-Cook
Attacker72'
6.56
20
Elliot Watt
Elliot Watt Midfielder
7.42
45
Emmanuel Longelo
Emmanuel Longelo Midfielder
2
6.82
21
Elijah Just
Elijah Just Attacker
7.2
90
Ibrahim Said
Ibrahim Said
Attacker72'
6.79

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Callum Hendry → Callum Slattery
10th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Liam Gordon → Tom Sparrow
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Emmanuel Longelo
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Connor Barron → Thelo Aasgaard
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Max Aarons → Dujon Sterling
7th Substitution
77'
72'
Event
Regan Charles-Cook → Tawanda Maswanhise
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Ibrahim Said → Elijah Just
6th Substitution
Event
Dujon Sterling
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
71'
71'
Event
Callum Slattery
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Nicolas Raskin
Header / 4th Goal
70'
56'
Event
Jordan McGhee → Stephen Welsh
4th Substitution
Event
Youssef Chermiti
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
51'
Event
Mohamed Diomandé → Tochi Chukwuani
1st Substitution
46'
Event
James Tavernier → Jayden Meghoma
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Mikey Moore → Bojan Miovski
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Emmanuel Longelo
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
25'
Event
Emmanuel Longelo
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
16'
Event
Lukas Fadinger
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Motherwell exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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