Rangers vs Hibernian Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Ibrox Stadium Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM
Premiership
Rangers RAN
1 Winner 2
Hibernian HIB
Full Time Wed, 13 May 7:00 PM
Round 37 2nd Phase
Thelo Aasgaard - 41'
Goal
|
Goal
Dane Scarlett - 89'
Martin Boyle - 5'

CONTEXT

In a stunning Scottish Premiership upset, Hibernian defeated Rangers 1-2 at Ibrox despite the hosts' overwhelming 72% possession dominance. The first half ended 1-1, with both sides trading blows in an even contest. Rangers, considered the stronger team, pushed hard after the break but failed to break through Hibernian's resolute defense. The visitors thrived on the counter, striking twice to seal a memorable victory. No red cards disrupted play, and second-half adjustments from Rangers yielded no goals. This result highlights Hibernian's clinical finishing against Rangers' profligacy, marking a moderate structural deviation in the final outcome. Possession stats belied the scoreline, as Hibernian maximized their limited opportunities while Rangers squandered superiority.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Hibernian experienced a moderate 7.6% structural deviation favoring their victory.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency remained in line with pre-match expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to absent data.
  • Event impact: No key events like second-half adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant zero distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. McDermid

Scotland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. MacLeod

1st Assistant

Scotland

D. Potter

2nd Assistant

Scotland

R. Hardie

4th Official

Scotland

League averages

Premiership Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 19.91
Yellow cards / match 3.39
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.21
Rangers D. Röhl
D. Röhl
VS
Hibernian D. Gray
D. Gray
2.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Hearts Rank: 74 L
Motherwell Rank: 66 L
Falkirk Rank: 65 W
Dundee United Rank: 61 W
Aberdeen Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Falkirk Rank: 66 W
Celtic Rank: 78 L
Hearts Rank: 73 L
Aberdeen Rank: 59 L
Kilmarnock Rank: 61 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 D
37
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
37 - 13 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rangers
0.32%
Draw
7.32%
Away Hibernian
92.37%

Movement

Changes since opening
Rangers
-0.06%
Draw
-2.23%
Hibernian
+2.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.07
68.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rangers
Hibernian
Power Score
76.07
68.61
League Position
3
5
Global Rank
101
246

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Hibernian — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rangers Hibernian

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hibernian

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rangers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hibernian
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rangers Hibernian
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rangers Hibernian
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rangers
Hibernian
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rangers
vs
Hibernian
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rangers Hibernian
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rangers 0.00
Hibernian 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rangers Hibernian
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rangers 0.00
Hibernian 0.00
Rangers
Hibernian
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RAN had peak pressure around 71'.
  • RAN started the game with stronger pressure.
RAN Pressure HIB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RAN reached the top pressure at 71' (88.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 58 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rangers RAN Home
58 matches
Hibernian HIB Away
Match Record
37
Wins
8
13
Draws
13
8
Losses
37
Goals
112
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
112
+57
Goal Difference
-57

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T18:31:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
J. Butland
England
1 J. Butland
D. Sterling
Substitution
England
21 D. Sterling
N. Djiga
Burkina Faso
24 N. Djiga
E. Fernandez
England
37 E. Fernandez
T. Rommens
Substitution
Belgium
25 T. Rommens
C. Barron
Scotland
8 C. Barron
T. Aasgaard
Substitution
Norway
11 T. Aasgaard
O. Antman
Substitution
Finland
18 O. Antman
M. Diomande
Substitution
Ivory Coast
10 M. Diomande
M. Moore
England
47 M. Moore
Y. Ramalho Chermiti
Portugal
9 Y. Ramalho Chermiti
Pitch
R. Sallinger
Austria
1 R. Sallinger
J. Iredale
Australia
15 J. Iredale
G. Hanley
Scotland
4 G. Hanley
W. O'Hora
Republic of Ireland
5 W. O'Hora
J. Obita
Substitution
England
21 J. Obita
D. Barlaser
Substitution
England
22 D. Barlaser
M. Changa Chaiwa
Zambia
14 M. Changa Chaiwa
F. Passlack
Germany
25 F. Passlack
J. Campbell
Substitution
Scotland
32 J. Campbell
M. Boyle
Substitution
Australia
10 M. Boyle
O. Elding
Substitution
England
47 O. Elding

General Information

Date & Time :
May 13, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 37 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Ibrox Stadium
Capacity :
50817
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ross MacLeod
Dougie Potter
Ross Hardie
Matthew McDermid

Statistics

Possession
RAN
67%
HIB
33%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 3
67 Dangerous attacks 12
72 Possession 28
9 Corners 3
12 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Assists 2
6 Goal Kicks 12
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
18 Throwins 11
6 Successful Dribbles 3
16 Dribble Attempts 8
27 Ball Safe 29
5 Substitutions 5
9 Goal Attempts 3

Attacking

117 Attacks 52

Possession

549 Successful Passes 170
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
16 Key Passes 4
22 Long Passes 58
92 Successful Passes Percentage 75
12 Successful Long Passes 24
596 Passes 227

Defensive

11 Tackles 17
4 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 7
46 Duels Won 47

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 11
9 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
14 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Matthew McDermid

Starting XI ▼

1
Jack Butland
Jack Butland Goalkeeper
6.85
21
Dujon Sterling
Dujon Sterling Defender
6.87
30
Jayden Meghoma
Jayden Meghoma
Defender80'
6.8
24
Nasser Djiga
Nasser Djiga Defender
6.94
25
Tuur Rommens
Tuur Rommens Defender
7.1
3
Max Aarons
Max Aarons
Defender72'
6.79
37
Emmanuel Fernandez
Emmanuel Fernandez Defender
7.24
8
Connor Barron
Connor Barron Midfielder
6.92
10
Mohamed Diomandé
Mohamed Diomandé Midfielder
6.76
23
Djeidi Gassama
Djeidi Gassama
Attacker72'
6.95
11
Thelo Aasgaard
Thelo Aasgaard Midfielder
7.04
42
Tochi Chukwuani
Tochi Chukwuani
Midfielder80'
6.83
18
Oliver Antman
Oliver Antman Midfielder
6.84
28
Bojan Miovski
Bojan Miovski
Attacker63'
6.79
47
Mikey Moore
Mikey Moore Midfielder
6.83
9
Youssef Chermiti
Youssef Chermiti Attacker
7.09
Referee : Matthew McDermid

Starting XI ▼

1
Raphael Sallinger
Raphael Sallinger Goalkeeper
6.89
4
Grant Hanley
Grant Hanley Defender
6.75
5
Warren O'Hora
Warren O'Hora Defender
6.94
15
Jack Iredale
Jack Iredale Defender
6.87
14
Miguel Chaiwa
Miguel Chaiwa Midfielder
6.74
21
Jordan Obita
Jordan Obita Midfielder
6.81
19
Nicky Cadden
Nicky Cadden
Midfielder78'
6.94
22
Dan Barlaser
Dan Barlaser Midfielder
6.86
11
Joe Newell
Joe Newell
Midfielder46'
6.68
25
Felix Passlack
Felix Passlack Midfielder
6.91
10
Martin Boyle
Martin Boyle Attacker
6.75
44
Dane Scarlett
Dane Scarlett
Attacker78'
6.53
32
Josh Campbell
Josh Campbell Attacker
6.72
20
Josh Mulligan
Josh Mulligan
Midfielder69'
6.91
47
Owen Elding
Owen Elding Attacker
6.89
77
Ante Suto
Ante Suto
Attacker69'
6.79

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Dane Scarlett
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Nasser Djiga
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Tochi Chukwuani → Thelo Aasgaard
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Jayden Meghoma → Dujon Sterling
10th Substitution
80'
78'
Event
Nicky Cadden → Jordan Obita
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Dane Scarlett → Martin Boyle
8th Substitution
74'
Event
Jordan Obita
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Djeidi Gassama → Mohamed Diomandé
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Max Aarons → Tuur Rommens
5th Substitution
72'
69'
Event
Josh Mulligan → Josh Campbell
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Ante Suto → Owen Elding
4th Substitution
Event
Bojan Miovski → Oliver Antman
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Connor Barron
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
52'
46'
Event
Joe Newell → Dan Barlaser
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Thelo Aasgaard
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
41'
39'
Event
Warren O'Hora
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
5'
Event
Martin Boyle
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

63
Substitution Substitution
Bojan Miovski is substituted for Rangers in the 63rd minute.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Connor Barron of Rangers receives a yellow card in the 52nd minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Joe Newell is substituted for Hibernian in the 45th minute.
41
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Thelo Aasgaard scores for Rangers in the 41st minute.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Warren O'Hora of Hibernian receives a yellow card in the 39th minute.
5
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Martin Boyle scores for Hibernian at the 5th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Hibernian exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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