Rangers vs Dundee United Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Ibrox Stadium Sat, 4 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Rangers RAN
4 Winner 2
Dundee United DUD
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Bojan Miovski - 85'
Thelo Aasgaard - 52'
Dujon Sterling - 40'
Ryan Naderi - 30'
Goal
|
Goal
Zachary Sapsford - 72'
Amar Fatah - 45'

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Rangers securing a thrilling 4-2 victory over Dundee United. Pre-match expectations heavily favored the home side, with Rangers holding a commanding 70.9% implied win probability compared to an 18.3% chance of a draw and just 10.8% for a Dundee United upset. The final outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match market. However, the exact scoring trajectory represented a significant deviation favoring Rangers as they successfully converted their dominance into four goals, maintaining a 2-1 lead at half-time before pulling further ahead. The hosts controlled the tempo throughout the contest, commanding an impressive 68% of the overall possession while restricting Dundee United to just 32% of the ball. Although expected goals (xG) data is unavailable to quantify the precise quality of the scoring chances or whether the exact scoreline was fully aligned with the underlying metrics, the offensive efficiency shift was directly in line with expectations for the favorites. Furthermore, the match proceeded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither team received a red card. Rangers simply executed their game plan effectively, utilizing their clear superiority on the ball to dictate play and easily confirm their status as the stronger team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rangers showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Beaton

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. McGeachie

1st Assistant

C. Rae

2nd Assistant

I. Snedden

4th Official

Rangers D. Röhl
D. Röhl
VS
Dundee United J. Goodwin
J. Goodwin
2.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.16
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aberdeen Rank: 57 W
St. Mirren Rank: 56 W
Celtic Rank: 77 D
Livingston Rank: 53 D
Hearts Rank: 73 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Celtic Rank: 78 W
Dundee Rank: 59 D
St. Mirren Rank: 58 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 L
Aberdeen Rank: 56 D
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 D
27
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
27 - 10 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Rangers
70.94%
Draw
18.28%
Away Dundee United
10.78%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.28
61.84
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Rangers
Dundee United
Power Score
77.28
61.84
League Position
1
7
Global Rank
78
405

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Dundee United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Rangers Dundee United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dundee United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Rangers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.19
47.66
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
47.66
34.19
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Rangers -1.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Dundee United +1.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Rangers
Dundee United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Rangers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dundee United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Rangers Dundee United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Rangers Dundee United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Rangers
Dundee United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Rangers
vs
Dundee United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Rangers Dundee United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Rangers 0.47
Dundee United 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Rangers Dundee United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Rangers 0.04
Dundee United 0.09
Rangers
Dundee United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Rangers RAN Home
42 matches
Dundee United DUD Away
Match Record
27
Wins
5
10
Draws
10
5
Losses
27
Goals
100
Goals Scored
36
36
Goals Conceded
100
+64
Goal Difference
-64

Data last updated: 2026-04-05T00:03:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Butland
England
1 J. Butland
D. Sterling
Substitution
England
21 D. Sterling
J. Souttar
Scotland
5 J. Souttar
N. Djiga
Burkina Faso
24 N. Djiga
J. Meghoma
England
30 J. Meghoma
N. Raskin
Belgium
43 N. Raskin
T. Chukwuani
Substitution
Denmark
42 T. Chukwuani
A. Olsen
Substitution
Denmark
7 A. Olsen
T. Aasgaard
Substitution
Norway
11 T. Aasgaard
M. Moore
England
47 M. Moore
R. Naderi
Substitution
Germany
20 R. Naderi
Pitch
A. Maynard-Brewer
Substitution
Australia
1 A. Maynard-Brewer
K. Keresztes
Hungary
23 K. Keresztes
R. Graham
Scotland
6 R. Graham
I. Iovu
Moldova
4 I. Iovu
W. Ferry
Republic of Ireland
11 W. Ferry
E. Agyei
Substitution
Ghana
12 E. Agyei
V. Ševelj
Croatia
5 V. Ševelj
L. Stephenson
England
21 L. Stephenson
A. Ahmed Fatah
Sweden
17 A. Ahmed Fatah
N. Farrugia
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
20 N. Farrugia
M. Watters
Substitution
England
36 M. Watters

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 04, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Ibrox Stadium
Capacity :
50817
Attendance :
51012
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
John Beaton
David McGeachie
Chris Rae
Iain Snedden

Statistics

Possession
RAN
62%
DUD
38%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 4
45 Dangerous attacks 45
68 Possession 32
10 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

21 Throwins 22
17 Successful Headers 22
5 Substitutions 4
10 Successful Dribbles 6
3 Assists 2
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
78 Ball Safe 68
10 Dribble Attempts 6
3 Goal Kicks 7
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

108 Attacks 70

Possession

13 Key Passes 9
86 Successful Passes Percentage 69
23 Long Passes 27
455 Successful Passes 176
529 Passes 255

Defensive

6 Interceptions 12
2 Saves 6
55 Duels Won 48
18 Tackles 14

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

9 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : John Beaton

Starting XI ▼

1
Jack Butland
Jack Butland Goalkeeper
5
John Souttar
John Souttar Defender
21
Dujon Sterling
Dujon Sterling Defender
2
James Tavernier
James Tavernier
Defender87'
24
Nasser Djiga
Nasser Djiga Defender
30
Jayden Meghoma
Jayden Meghoma Defender
7
Andreas Skov Olsen
Andreas Skov Olsen Midfielder
23
Djeidi Gassama
Djeidi Gassama
Attacker46'
11
Thelo Aasgaard
Thelo Aasgaard Midfielder
28
Bojan Miovski
Bojan Miovski
Attacker74'
42
Tochi Chukwuani
Tochi Chukwuani Midfielder
8
Connor Barron
Connor Barron
Midfielder82'
43
Nicolas Raskin
Nicolas Raskin Midfielder
47
Mikey Moore
Mikey Moore Midfielder
20
Ryan Naderi
Ryan Naderi Attacker
9
Youssef Chermiti
Youssef Chermiti
Attacker46'
Referee : John Beaton

Starting XI ▼

1
Ashley Maynard-Brewer
Ashley Maynard-Brewer Goalkeeper
25
Dave Richards
Dave Richards
Goalkeeper58'
4
Iurie Iovu
Iurie Iovu Defender
6
Ross Graham
Ross Graham Defender
23
Krisztián Keresztes
Krisztián Keresztes Defender
5
Vicko Sevelj
Vicko Sevelj Midfielder
11
Will Ferry
Will Ferry Midfielder
12
Emmanuel Agyei
Emmanuel Agyei Midfielder
8
Panutche Camara
Panutche Camara
Midfielder63'
21
L. Stephenson
L. Stephenson Midfielder
17
Amar Fatah
Amar Fatah Attacker
20
N. Farrugia
N. Farrugia Attacker
9
Zachary Sapsford
Zachary Sapsford
Midfielder64'
36
Max Watters
Max Watters Attacker
19
Ivan Dolcek
Ivan Dolcek
Attacker82'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
James Tavernier → Dujon Sterling
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Bojan Miovski
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
85'
Event
Connor Barron → Tochi Chukwuani
7th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Ivan Dolcek → Max Watters
8th Substitution
Event
Bojan Miovski → Thelo Aasgaard
6th Substitution
74'
72'
Event
Zachary Sapsford
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
68'
Event
Krisztián Keresztes
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
64'
Event
Zachary Sapsford → N. Farrugia
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Panutche Camara → Emmanuel Agyei
4th Substitution
59'
Event
4th Yellowcard
59'
Event
Emmanuel Agyei
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Dave Richards → Ashley Maynard-Brewer
3rd Substitution
Event
Thelo Aasgaard
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
52'
Event
Youssef Chermiti → Ryan Naderi
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Djeidi Gassama → Andreas Skov Olsen
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Amar Fatah
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Dujon Sterling
Header / 2nd Goal
40'
Event
Ryan Naderi
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
30'
Event
Thelo Aasgaard
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
16'

Match Commentary

87
Substitution Substitution
James Tavernier is substituted for Rangers in the 87th minute.
85
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Bojan Miovski scores for Rangers in the 85th minute.
82
Substitution Substitution
Ivan Dolcek is substituted for Dundee United in the 82nd minute.
82
Substitution Substitution
Connor Barron is substituted for Rangers in the 83rd minute.
74
Substitution Substitution
Bojan Miovski is substituted for Rangers in the 74th minute.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Zachary Sapsford scores for Dundee United in the 72nd minute.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Krisztián Keresztes of Dundee United receives a yellow card in the 68th minute.
64
Substitution Substitution
Zachary Sapsford is substituted for Dundee United in the 64th minute.
63
Substitution Substitution
Panutche Camara is substituted for Dundee United in the 63rd minute.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Emmanuel Agyei of Dundee United receives a yellow card in the 59th minute.
58
Substitution Substitution
Dave Richards is substituted for Dundee United in the 58th minute.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Thelo Aasgaard scores for Rangers at the 52nd minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Djeidi Gassama is substituted for Rangers in the 45th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Youssef Chermiti is substituted for Rangers in the 45th minute.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Amar Ahmed scores for Dundee United at the 45th minute.
40
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Dujon Sterling scores for Rangers in the 40th minute.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Ryan Naderi scores for Rangers in the 30th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rangers exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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