Randers FC vs Vejle Boldklub Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Cepheus Park Randers Sun, 3 May - 12:00 PM
Superliga
Randers FC RDF
1 Winner 0
Vejle Boldklub Vejle Boldklub
Full Time Sun, 3 May 12:00 PM
Round 8 Relegation Round
Elies Mahmoud - 60' (P)
Goal
|
Cyril Edudzi 28' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Randers FC secured a resilient 1-0 victory over Vejle Boldklub in the Danish Superliga, with the only goal coming in the second half after a goalless 0-0 halftime. Vejle dominated possession at 66% to Randers' 34%, yet struggled to create clear chances. A red card to Randers reduced them to ten men, distorting the second-half dynamics and forcing a defensive masterclass. As the pre-designated stronger team, Randers capitalized on limited opportunities to claim the points. This outcome featured a significant 38.7% structural deviation favoring Randers, while market alignment held true. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. The red card event heavily influenced proceedings, testing Randers' resolve.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Randers FC's win showed a significant 38.7% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was true for the home victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: Red card to Randers FC altered game structure significantly.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion shaped second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Dahl

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Gammelholm

4th Official

J. Dahl

1st Assistant

J. Bæk

2nd Assistant

Randers FC R. Bertelsen
R. Bertelsen
VS
Vejle Boldklub C. Nørgaard
C. Nørgaard
0.93
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.73
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Silkeborg IF Rank: 58 L
Fredericia Rank: 52 D
Odense BK Rank: 56 L
FC København Rank: 67 L
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 49 D
Silkeborg IF Rank: 61 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC København Rank: 69 L
Silkeborg IF Rank: 58 L
FC København Rank: 68 L
Fredericia Rank: 52 D
Randers FC Rank: 58 D
Odense BK Rank: 58 D
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 6 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Randers FC
61.33%
Draw
22.57%
Away Vejle Boldklub
16.1%

Movement

Changes since opening
Randers FC
-35.15%
Draw
+19.24%
Vejle Boldklub
+15.91%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.38
48.9
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Randers FC
Vejle Boldklub
Power Score
58.38
48.9
League Position
9
12
Global Rank
539
813

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Randers FC — Opponent-weighted form score
Vejle Boldklub — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Randers FC Vejle Boldklub

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Randers FC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Vejle Boldklub

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Randers FC ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vejle Boldklub
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.18
25.61
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.61
36.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Randers FC +1.00 Efficiency Index
vs
Vejle Boldklub -1.00 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Randers FC
Vejle Boldklub
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Randers FC ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Vejle Boldklub
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Randers FC Vejle Boldklub
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Randers FC Vejle Boldklub
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Randers FC
Vejle Boldklub
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Randers FC
vs
Vejle Boldklub
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Randers FC Vejle Boldklub
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Randers FC 0.22
Vejle Boldklub 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Randers FC Vejle Boldklub
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Randers FC 0.00
Vejle Boldklub 0.02
Randers FC
Vejle Boldklub
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Vejle Boldklub had peak pressure around 48'.
  • RDF started the game with stronger pressure.
RDF Pressure Vejle Boldklub Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Vejle Boldklub reached the top pressure at 48' (86.85).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Randers FC RDF Home
21 matches
Vejle Boldklub Vejle Boldklub Away
Match Record
14
Wins
1
6
Draws
6
1
Losses
14
Goals
38
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
38
+23
Goal Difference
-23

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:03:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
P. Izzo
Australia
1 P. Izzo
L. Lissens
Belgium
2 L. Lissens
D. Høegh
Denmark
3 D. Høegh
W. Dammers
Netherlands
4 W. Dammers
N. Dyhr
Substitution
Denmark
44 N. Dyhr
L. Raun Pedersen
Denmark
8 L. Raun Pedersen
J. Björkengren
Sweden
6 J. Björkengren
E. Mahmoud
Substitution
France
11 E. Mahmoud
M. Greve
Substitution
Denmark
17 M. Greve
C. Edudzi
33 C. Edudzi
W. Caddy
Substitution
Madagascar
10 W. Caddy
Pitch
T. Haahr Jakobsen
Denmark
24 T. Haahr Jakobsen
C. Sørensen
Denmark
3 C. Sørensen
V. Jensen
Substitution
Denmark
5 V. Jensen
L. Ladegaard Nielsen
Denmark
4 L. Ladegaard Nielsen
L. Flø Borregaard
Denmark
23 L. Flø Borregaard
M. Vestergård
Denmark
6 M. Vestergård
T. Gundelund
Denmark
2 T. Gundelund
T. Bach
Substitution
Denmark
16 T. Bach
A. Hjulsager
Substitution
Denmark
17 A. Hjulsager
C. Gammelgaard
Substitution
Denmark
7 C. Gammelgaard
W. Faghir
Substitution
Denmark
19 W. Faghir

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 8 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Cepheus Park Randers
Capacity :
12000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Patrick Remon Gammelholm
Jesper Dahl
Jesper Dahl
Jonas Bæk

Statistics

Possession
RDF
40%
Vejle Boldklub
60%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
0 Shots 10
46 Dangerous attacks 58
34 Possession 66
3 Corners 6
13 Free kicks 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
4 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0
70 Ball Safe 71
65 Successful Dribbles Percentage 22
2 Hit Woodwork 0
6 Goal Attempts 9
16 Throwins 9
15 Goal Kicks 6
17 Dribble Attempts 9
11 Successful Dribbles 2

Attacking

98 Attacks 116
0 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

74 Successful Passes Percentage 87
227 Successful Passes 534
308 Passes 617
55 Long Passes 62
19 Successful Long Passes 35
35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
6 Key Passes 10

Defensive

54 Duels Won 45
3 Saves 0
12 Tackles 9
12 Interceptions 10

Build-up

0 Accurate Crosses 3
14 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

6 Fouls 14
4 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Jesper Dahl

Starting XI ▼

1
Paul Izzo
Paul Izzo Goalkeeper
6.97
2
Lucas Lissens
Lucas Lissens Defender
6.68
3
Daniel Høegh
Daniel Høegh Defender
7.07
4
Wessel Dammers
Wessel Dammers Defender
7.13
44
Nikolas Dyhr
Nikolas Dyhr Defender
6.66
15
M. Sjølstad
M. Sjølstad
Defender78'
6.42
6
John Björkengren
John Björkengren Midfielder
6.97
8
Laurits Pedersen
Laurits Pedersen Midfielder
6.65
11
Elies Mahmoud
Elies Mahmoud Midfielder
7.12
24
Sabil Hansen
Sabil Hansen
Midfielder78'
6.83
17
Mathias Greve
Mathias Greve Midfielder
7.13
14
Frederik Lauenborg
Frederik Lauenborg
Midfielder87'
6.71
33
Cyril Edudzi
Cyril Edudzi Midfielder
6.82
10
Warren Caddy
Warren Caddy Attacker
6.75
30
Thibault Klidjé
Thibault Klidjé
Attacker64'
6.61
Referee : Jesper Dahl

Starting XI ▼

24
Tobias Haahr
Tobias Haahr Goalkeeper
6.29
3
Christian Sørensen
Christian Sørensen Defender
6.7
4
Lasse Nielsen
Lasse Nielsen Defender
6.91
5
Valdemar Lund
Valdemar Lund Defender
6.48
20
Abdoulaye Camara
Abdoulaye Camara
Attacker83'
6.6
23
Lasse Flø
Lasse Flø Defender
6.73
2
Thomas Gundelund
Thomas Gundelund Midfielder
6.6
6
Mike Vestergård
Mike Vestergård Midfielder
6.68
7
Christian Gammelgaard
Christian Gammelgaard Midfielder
6.88
11
Jonathan Amon
Jonathan Amon
Attacker74'
6.52
16
T. Bach
T. Bach Midfielder
6.76
21
Giorgi Tabatadze
Giorgi Tabatadze
Defender62'
6.34
17
Andrew Hjulsager
Andrew Hjulsager Midfielder
6.8
32
Bismark Edjeodji
Bismark Edjeodji
Midfielder62'
6.5
19
Wahid Faghir
Wahid Faghir Attacker
6.61
9
Jelle Duin
Jelle Duin
Attacker62'
6.74

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Giorgi Tabatadze
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Frederik Lauenborg → Mathias Greve
9th Substitution
87'
83'
Event
Abdoulaye Camara → Valdemar Lund
8th Substitution
Event
Sabil Hansen → Elies Mahmoud
6th Substitution
78'
Event
M. Sjølstad → Nikolas Dyhr
7th Substitution
78'
74'
Event
Jonathan Amon → Christian Gammelgaard
5th Substitution
Event
Thibault Klidjé → Warren Caddy
4th Substitution
64'
62'
Event
Jelle Duin → Wahid Faghir
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Bismark Edjeodji → Andrew Hjulsager
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Giorgi Tabatadze → T. Bach
3rd Substitution
Event
Elies Mahmoud
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
60'
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
T. Bach
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Cyril Edudzi
Card adjusted
28'
Event
Cyril Edudzi
Foul / 1st Redcard
28'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Sabil Hansen's right-footed shot is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Mike Vestergaard takes a left-footed shot but misses.
87
Update Update
Frederik Lauenborg replaces Mathias Greve.
87
Attempt Attempt
Mike Vestergaard took a left-footed shot but missed.
82
Update Update
Abdoulaye Camara replaces Valdemar Jensen.
78
Attempt Attempt
John Bjorkengren takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
77
Update Update
Sabil Hansen comes on for Elies Mahmoud.
77
Update Update
Martin Andre Sjolstad is on, and Nikolas Dyhr is off.
74
Update Update
Jonathan Amon comes on for Christian Gammelgaard.
74
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Gundelund Nielsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Giorgi Tabatadze takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
71
Attempt Attempt
Christian Gammelgaard takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Jelle Duin attempts a header but misses the shot.
65
Attempt Attempt
Jelle Duin attempts a header but misses the shot.
64
Update Update
Thibault Klidje is on, and Warren Caddy is off.
61
Update Update
Jelle Duin comes on for Wahid Faghir.
61
Update Update
Giorgi Tabatadze is on, and Tobias Bach is off.
61
Update Update
Bismark Edjeodji is on, and Andrew Hjulsager is off.
60
Attempt Attempt
Elies Mahmoud scores with a left-footed shot.
59
Attempt Attempt
Warren Caddy's right-footed shot is blocked.
59
Update Update
Goal! Elies Mahmoud scores from the penalty spot to make it 1-0.
56
Attempt Attempt
Christian Sorensen takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Wahid Faghir attempts a header but misses the shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Christian Gammelgaard takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Wahid Faghir's header is saved.
42
Attempt Attempt
Lasse Flo's left-footed shot is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Christian Gammelgaard's left-footed shot is saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Greve takes a left-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Greve's right-footed shot is blocked.
29
Red Card Red Card Important
Cyril Edudzi receives a red card.
10
Attempt Attempt
Cyril Edudzi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Laurits Pedersen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
7
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Lissens takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
7
Attempt Attempt
Cyril Edudzi takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
5
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Laurits Pedersen with his right foot misses the target.

CONCLUSION

Randers FC's 1-0 win epitomizes grit, overcoming a red card and 34% possession to defeat possession-heavy Vejle Boldklub. The second-half goal proved decisive after a level halftime, with Randers' defense holding firm under pressure. Marked as the stronger team, they delivered a result with 38.7% structural deviation and full market alignment. Efficiency held steady, though absent xG limits performance insights. The red card's distortion fueled a backs-to-the-wall effort, highlighting tactical discipline. Vejle rued inefficiency despite control. This victory bolsters Randers' campaign, proving resilience trumps dominance.

Randers FC vs Vejle Boldklub preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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