Randers FC vs Odense BK Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Cepheus Park Randers Mon, 11 May - 5:00 PM
Superliga
Randers FC RDF
2 – 2
Odense BK ODE
Full Time Mon, 11 May 5:00 PM
Round 9 Relegation Round
Thibault Klidjé - 67'
Nikolas Dyhr - 66'
Goal
|
Goal
Leeroy Owusu - 74'
Fiete Arp - 8'
|
Red Card Viljar Myhra 29'

CONTEXT

Randers FC and Odense BK delivered a captivating 2-2 draw in the Danish Superliga, with the home side overcoming an early deficit. Odense BK took the lead with a goal before halftime, standing at 0-1 during the break, capitalizing on their opportunities despite Randers' 59% possession dominance throughout. As the stronger team, Randers FC pushed forward in the second half, equalizing and then taking the lead temporarily before Odense responded resiliently. A crucial red card to Odense altered the game's flow, introducing distortion and forcing defensive adjustments late on. Randers controlled the ball but couldn't convert their superiority into a win, resulting in shared points. This outcome reflected moderate structural deviation at 7.3% towards Randers, while efficiency stayed in line with expectations. The match underscored tactical resilience amid possession battles and disciplinary setbacks, keeping alignments intact without xG data for deeper insight.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited moderate 7.3% structural deviation favoring Randers FC.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned fully with pre-match market assessments.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be assessed without available data.
  • Event impact: Odense BK's red card heavily influenced second-half momentum.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion listed as key second-half adjustment factor.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. A. Sundberg

Denmark
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Skytte

1st Assistant

Denmark

D. Kolding

2nd Assistant

Denmark

F. Svendsen

4th Official

Denmark

League averages

Superliga Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.93
Yellow cards / match 3.1
Red cards / match 0.13
Penalties / match 0.22
Randers FC R. Bertelsen
R. Bertelsen
VS
Odense BK A. Zorniger
A. Zorniger
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 49 W
Silkeborg IF Rank: 58 L
Fredericia Rank: 52 D
Odense BK Rank: 56 L
FC København Rank: 71 L
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 51 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Silkeborg IF Rank: 60 L
Fredericia Rank: 53 W
FC København Rank: 69 L
Randers FC Rank: 60 W
Silkeborg IF Rank: 60 L
Fredericia Rank: 51 W
16
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
16 - 19 - 21
21

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Randers FC
4.98%
Draw
92.72%
Away Odense BK
2.31%

Movement

Changes since opening
Randers FC
-2.16%
Draw
+2.59%
Odense BK
-0.42%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.68
49.01
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Randers FC
Odense BK
Power Score
58.68
49.01
League Position
9
8
Global Rank
546
549

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Randers FC — Opponent-weighted form score
Odense BK — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Randers FC Odense BK

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Randers FC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Odense BK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Randers FC ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Odense BK
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.92
23.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.05
39.92
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Randers FC +1.60 Efficiency Index
vs
Odense BK -1.60 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Randers FC
Odense BK
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Randers FC ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Odense BK
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Randers FC Odense BK
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Randers FC Odense BK
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Randers FC
Odense BK
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Randers FC
vs
Odense BK
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Randers FC Odense BK
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Randers FC 0.21
Odense BK 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Randers FC Odense BK
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Randers FC 0.07
Odense BK 0.02
Randers FC
Odense BK
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • RDF had peak pressure around 63'.
  • RDF started the game with stronger pressure.
RDF Pressure ODE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: RDF reached the top pressure at 63' (86.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 56 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Randers FC RDF Home
56 matches
Odense BK ODE Away
Match Record
16
Wins
21
19
Draws
19
21
Losses
16
Goals
63
Goals Scored
67
67
Goals Conceded
63
-4
Goal Difference
+4

Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:03:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
P. Izzo
Australia
1 P. Izzo
L. Lissens
Substitution
Belgium
2 L. Lissens
D. Høegh
Denmark
3 D. Høegh
W. Dammers
Netherlands
4 W. Dammers
N. Dyhr
Denmark
44 N. Dyhr
J. Björkengren
Sweden
6 J. Björkengren
L. Raun Pedersen
Substitution
Denmark
8 L. Raun Pedersen
E. Mahmoud
France
11 E. Mahmoud
M. Greve
Substitution
Denmark
17 M. Greve
M. Sjølstad
Substitution
Norway
15 M. Sjølstad
T. Klidje
Togo
30 T. Klidje
Pitch
V. Røsholt Myhra
Norway
16 V. Røsholt Myhra
M. McCoy
Denmark
15 M. McCoy
J. Berthel Askou Harvey
Denmark
13 J. Berthel Askou Harvey
Y. Bojang
Gambia
24 Y. Bojang
L. Owusu
Netherlands
20 L. Owusu
J. Arp
Germany
7 J. Arp
I. Ouédraogo
Substitution
Burkina Faso
22 I. Ouédraogo
R. Falk Jensen
Denmark
8 R. Falk Jensen
M. Ejdum
Denmark
18 M. Ejdum
N. Ganaus
Substitution
Germany
17 N. Ganaus
J. Niemiec
Substitution
Germany
11 J. Niemiec

General Information

Date & Time :
May 11, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 9 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Cepheus Park Randers
Capacity :
12000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jakob A. Sundberg
Victor Skytte
Danny Kolding
Frederik Svendsen

Statistics

Possession
RDF
59%
ODE
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 5
91 Dangerous attacks 29
59 Possession 41
8 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 0
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

28 Throwins 13
4 Goal Kicks 12
22 Dribble Attempts 13
16 Successful Dribbles 9
73 Successful Dribbles Percentage 69
4 Substitutions 3
2 Assists 1
58 Ball Safe 72
0 Injuries 1
10 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

2 Counter Attacks 8
148 Attacks 67
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 80
12 Key Passes 6
453 Successful Passes 304
525 Passes 378
43 Long Passes 48
28 Successful Long Passes 16
65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

59 Duels Won 55
7 Interceptions 7
16 Tackles 21
3 Saves 4

Build-up

10 Accurate Crosses 2
44 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

9 Fouls 15
6 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Jakob A. Sundberg

Starting XI ▼

1
Paul Izzo
Paul Izzo Goalkeeper
2
Lucas Lissens
Lucas Lissens Defender
24
Sabil Hansen
Sabil Hansen
Midfielder46'
3
Daniel Høegh
Daniel Høegh Defender
4
Wessel Dammers
Wessel Dammers Defender
44
Nikolas Dyhr
Nikolas Dyhr Defender
6
John Björkengren
John Björkengren Midfielder
8
Laurits Pedersen
Laurits Pedersen Midfielder
10
Warren Caddy
Warren Caddy
Attacker46'
11
Elies Mahmoud
Elies Mahmoud Midfielder
15
M. Sjølstad
M. Sjølstad Midfielder
7
Mike Themsen
Mike Themsen
Midfielder76'
17
Mathias Greve
Mathias Greve Midfielder
28
André Römer
André Römer
Midfielder76'
30
Thibault Klidjé
Thibault Klidjé Attacker
Referee : Jakob A. Sundberg

Starting XI ▼

16
Viljar Myhra
Viljar Myhra Goalkeeper
13
Julius Berthel Askou
Julius Berthel Askou Defender
15
Marcus McCoy
Marcus McCoy Defender
20
Leeroy Owusu
Leeroy Owusu Defender
24
Yaya Bojang
Yaya Bojang Defender
7
Fiete Arp
Fiete Arp Midfielder
8
Rasmus Falk
Rasmus Falk Midfielder
18
Max Ejdum
Max Ejdum Midfielder
22
Ismahila Ouédraogo
Ismahila Ouédraogo Midfielder
10
Anssi Suhonen
Anssi Suhonen
Midfielder57'
11
Jona Niemiec
Jona Niemiec Attacker
30
Theo Sander
Theo Sander
Goalkeeper31'
17
Noah Ganaus
Noah Ganaus Attacker
26
Lasse Legolas
Lasse Legolas
Attacker90+2'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Lasse Legolas → Noah Ganaus
7th Substitution
Event
Mike Themsen → M. Sjølstad
6th Substitution
76'
Event
André Römer → Mathias Greve
5th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Leeroy Owusu
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Thibault Klidjé
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
67'
Event
Nikolas Dyhr
Header / 2nd Goal
66'
57'
Event
Anssi Suhonen → Ismahila Ouédraogo
4th Substitution
Event
John Björkengren
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
47'
Event
Sabil Hansen → Lucas Lissens
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Warren Caddy → Laurits Pedersen
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Theo Sander → Jona Niemiec
1st Substitution
29'
Event
Viljar Myhra
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
8'
Event
Fiete Arp
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Warren Caddy takes a header shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Lasse Legolas is on, and Noah Ganaus is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Mike Themsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Warren Caddy's right-footed shot is blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Andre Ibsen Romer with his right foot is blocked.
83
Update Update
Daniel Hoegh's header is blocked.
76
Update Update
Andre Ibsen Romer comes on for Mathias Greve.
76
Substitution Substitution
Mike Themsen is substituted off for Martin Andre Sjolstad.
74
Attempt Attempt
Leeroy Owusu takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
74
Attempt Attempt
Leeroy Owusu takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
67
Attempt Attempt
Thibault Klidje takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
67
Attempt Attempt
Thibault Klidje scores with a right-footed shot.
66
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nikolas Dyhr scores, making it 1-1.
66
Update Update
Nikolas Dyhr scores with a header.
64
Attempt Attempt
Fiete Arp takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
62
Update Update
Marcus McCoy takes a header, but it misses the target.
59
Attempt Attempt
Warren Caddy takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Attempt Attempt
Elies Mahmoud takes a left-footed shot but misses.
57
Update Update
Anssi Suhonen comes on for Ismahila Ouedraogo.
57
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Hoegh's header is saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Elies Mahmoud's left-footed shot is saved.
53
Attempt Attempt
Thibault Klidje has a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Hoegh takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
48
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Hoegh takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
John Bjorkengren receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Sabil Hansen is on, and Laurits Pedersen is off.
46
Update Update
Warren Caddy is on, and Thibault Klidje is off.
42
Attempt Attempt
Noah Ganaus takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Martin Andre Sjolstad attempts a header but misses the shot.
37
Attempt Attempt
Noah Ganaus takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Martin Andre Sjolstad takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Greve's header is saved.
31
Substitution Substitution
Theo Sander is substituted for Jonah Niemiec.
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Fiete Arp scores to make it 1-0.
8
Attempt Attempt
Fiete Arp takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
6
Attempt Attempt
Max Ejdum takes a left-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Wessel Dammers attempts a header but misses the shot.

CONCLUSION

Randers FC's inability to capitalize on 59% possession and their status as the stronger team led to a frustrating 2-2 draw against a resilient Odense BK. Trailing 0-1 at halftime, Randers mounted a comeback, but Odense's response after their red card demonstrated grit, securing a point. This result showed market alignment and efficiency consistency, with moderate deviation not enough to tip the scales. The red card's distortion highlighted how events can equalize imbalances, preventing a home victory. Both squads displayed quality, yet tactical execution and discipline proved decisive in this evenly contested affair.

Randers FC vs Odense BK preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.