Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Raków Fri, 8 May - 4:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
2 Winner 0
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
Full Time Fri, 8 May 4:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Marko Bulat - 57'
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga - 48'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Raków Częstochowa claimed a straightforward 2-0 victory over Korona Kielce in this Ekstraklasa encounter, solidifying their position as the stronger team. The first half passed without goals, locked at 0-0, as both sides shared possession equally at 50%. Raków's quality shone through in the second period, where they netted twice to secure the win without facing any red card threats. Korona battled resiliently but couldn't convert their opportunities, leaving the scoreline reflective of the home side's dominance. No major tactical adjustments marked the second half, allowing the game to flow predictably. This outcome demonstrated minimal structural deviation from expectations, with the result aligning seamlessly with pre-match assessments. Possession parity underscored a balanced affair, yet Raków's clinical edge proved decisive. The clean sheet and controlled performance highlight their championship pedigree.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Raków's 2-0 win exhibited minimal structural deviation of 2.1% from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Final result perfectly aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without available data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to game dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

?. Kuźma

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Golis

1st Assistant

Poland

P. Podbielski

2nd Assistant

Poland

P. Świerczek

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.78
Yellow cards / match 3.21
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.21
Raków Częstochowa ?. Tomczyk
?. Tomczyk
VS
Korona Kielce J. Zielinski
J. Zielinski
1.53
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.12
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 59 W
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 D
Widzew Lodz Rank: 60 D
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 D
Katowice Rank: 64 D
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 65 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 65 D
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 60 L
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Raków Częstochowa
97.89%
Draw
1.92%
Away Korona Kielce
0.2%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.29
60.02
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Raków Częstochowa
Korona Kielce
Power Score
69.29
60.02
League Position
3
12
Global Rank
227
485

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Raków Częstochowa — Opponent-weighted form score
Korona Kielce — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Raków Częstochowa Korona Kielce

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Raków Częstochowa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Korona Kielce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Raków Częstochowa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Korona Kielce
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.50
28.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.00
35.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Raków Częstochowa +0.69 Efficiency Index
vs
Korona Kielce -0.69 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Raków Częstochowa
Korona Kielce
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Raków Częstochowa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Korona Kielce
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Raków Częstochowa Korona Kielce
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Raków Częstochowa Korona Kielce
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Raków Częstochowa
Korona Kielce
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Raków Częstochowa
vs
Korona Kielce
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Raków Częstochowa Korona Kielce
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Raków Częstochowa 0.19
Korona Kielce 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Raków Częstochowa Korona Kielce
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Raków Częstochowa 0.00
Korona Kielce 0.03
Raków Częstochowa
Korona Kielce
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Korona Kielce had peak pressure around 37'.
  • Raków Częstochowa started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
Raków Częstochowa Pressure Korona Kielce Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Korona Kielce reached the top pressure at 37' (86.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa Home
10 matches
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
5
Goals
11
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
11
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:01:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
K. Trelowski
Poland
1 K. Trelowski
F. Tudor
Croatia
7 F. Tudor
B. Racovitan
France
25 B. Racovitan
E. Svarnas
Greece
4 E. Svarnas
M. Ameyaw
Poland
19 M. Ameyaw
O. Repka
Poland
6 O. Repka
M. Bulat
Substitution
Croatia
5 M. Bulat
A. Amorim Santos
Substitution
Brazil
11 A. Amorim Santos
M. Diaby Fadiga
Substitution
France
80 M. Diaby Fadiga
J. Brunes
Substitution
Norway
18 J. Brunes
T. Pieńko
Substitution
Poland
8 T. Pieńko
Pitch
X. Dziekonski
Poland
1 X. Dziekonski
P. Resta Tell
Spain
5 P. Resta Tell
C. Soteriou
Cyprus
44 C. Soteriou
B. Smolarczyk
Poland
24 B. Smolarczyk
M. Pieczek
Substitution
Poland
6 M. Pieczek
S. Gustafson
Substitution
Sweden
86 S. Gustafson
T. Svetlin
Slovenia
88 T. Svetlin
W. Długosz
Substitution
Poland
71 W. Długosz
D. Błanik
Substitution
Poland
7 D. Błanik
M. Remacle
Substitution
Belgium
8 M. Remacle
A. Cortés Heredia
Spain
70 A. Cortés Heredia

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Raków
Capacity :
11600
Attendance :
5384
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Dawid Igor Golis
P. Podbielski
Patryk Świerczek
Łukasz Kuźma

Statistics

Possession
Raków Częstochowa
52%
Korona Kielce
48%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 5
75 Dangerous attacks 60
50 Possession 50
6 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
22 Dribble Attempts 10
19 Throwins 8
11 Successful Dribbles 2
9 Goal Kicks 9
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 0
86 Ball Safe 81
8 Goal Attempts 7
3 Injuries 2

Attacking

89 Attacks 83
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
59 Long Passes 60
10 Key Passes 5
27 Successful Long Passes 26
81 Successful Passes Percentage 81
348 Successful Passes 359
431 Passes 445

Defensive

65 Duels Won 49
3 Saves 3
16 Tackles 27
9 Interceptions 5

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 15
5 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

9 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Łukasz Kuźma

Starting XI ▼

1
Kacper Trelowski
Kacper Trelowski Goalkeeper
4
Stratos Svarnas
Stratos Svarnas Defender
7
Fran Tudor
Fran Tudor Defender
25
Bogdan Racovițan
Bogdan Racovițan Defender
5
Marko Bulat
Marko Bulat Midfielder
30
Vladyslav Kochergin
Vladyslav Kochergin
Midfielder65'
6
Oskar Repka
Oskar Repka Midfielder
11
Adriano
Adriano Midfielder
20
Jean Carlos Silva
Jean Carlos Silva
Midfielder75'
19
Michael Ameyaw
Michael Ameyaw Midfielder
8
Tomasz Pienko
Tomasz Pienko Attacker
10
Ivi López
Ivi López
Midfielder86'
18
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Jonatan Braut Brunes Attacker
17
Leonardo Rocha
Leonardo Rocha
Attacker86'
80
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga Attacker
9
Patryk Makuch
Patryk Makuch
Attacker75'
Referee : Łukasz Kuźma

Starting XI ▼

1
Xavier Dziekonski
Xavier Dziekonski Goalkeeper
5
Pau Resta
Pau Resta Defender
24
Bartlomiej Smolarczyk
Bartlomiej Smolarczyk Defender
44
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Konstantinos Sotiriou Defender
6
Marcel Pieczek
Marcel Pieczek Midfielder
3
Konrad Matuszewski
Konrad Matuszewski
Defender74'
71
Wiktor Dlugosz
Wiktor Dlugosz Midfielder
37
Hubert Zwozny
Hubert Zwozny
Defender25'
86
Simon Gustafson
Simon Gustafson Midfielder
10
Nono
Nono
Midfielder63'
88
Tamar Svetlin
Tamar Svetlin Midfielder
7
Dawid Blanik
Dawid Blanik Attacker
11
Vladimir Nikolov
Vladimir Nikolov
Attacker73'
8
Martin Remacle
Martin Remacle Attacker
9
Stjepan Davidovic
Stjepan Davidovic
Midfielder63'
70
Antoñín
Antoñín Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Patryk Makuch
Goal disallowed
90+5'
Event
Ivi López → Tomasz Pienko
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Leonardo Rocha → Jonatan Braut Brunes
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Patryk Makuch → Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
7th Substitution
75'
Event
Jean Carlos Silva → Adriano
8th Substitution
75'
74'
Event
Konrad Matuszewski → Marcel Pieczek
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Vladimir Nikolov → Dawid Blanik
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Bartlomiej Smolarczyk
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Vladyslav Kochergin → Marko Bulat
4th Substitution
65'
63'
Event
Stjepan Davidovic → Martin Remacle
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Nono → Simon Gustafson
3rd Substitution
Event
Marko Bulat
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
57'
Event
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
48'
1ST-HALF
Event
Marko Bulat
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+5'
25'
Event
Hubert Zwozny → Wiktor Dlugosz
1st Substitution
20'
Event
Wiktor Dlugosz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Makuch takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
90
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Patryk Makuch.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Patryk Makuch scores, making it 3-0, assisted by Jean Carlos Silva Rocha.
87
Attempt Attempt
Michael Ameyaw takes a right-footed shot but misses.
86
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Ivan Lopez Alvarez, but his right-footed attempt is saved.
86
Update Update
Ivan Lopez Alvarez is on, and Tomasz Pienko is off.
86
Update Update
Leonardo Miramar Rocha replaces Jonatan Braut Brunes.
77
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Makuch's right-footed shot is saved.
75
Update Update
Jean Carlos Silva Rocha is coming on for Adriano Luis Amorim Santos.
75
Update Update
Patryk Makuch comes on for Mohamed Lamine Diaby.
74
Update Update
Konrad Matuszewski replaces Marcel Pieczek.
74
Attempt Attempt
Pau Resta takes a left-footed shot but misses.
73
Update Update
Vladimir Nikolov comes on for Dawid Blanik.
73
Attempt Attempt
Oskar Repka takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
Oskar Repka's right-footed shot is blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Pienko takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
65
Update Update
Vladyslav Kochergin comes on for Marko Bulat.
63
Update Update
David Gonzalez Plata is on, and Simon Gustafson is off.
63
Update Update
Stjepan Davidovic comes on for Martin Remacle.
62
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Lamine Diaby's left-footed shot is blocked.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marko Bulat scores, making it 2-0.
57
Attempt Attempt
Marko Bulat takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
55
Attempt Attempt
Antonin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Lamine Diaby attempts a header but misses the shot.
51
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Pienko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
48
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Lamine Diaby scores with a left-footed shot.
43
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Mohamed Lamine Diaby with his right foot misses the target.
41
Attempt Attempt
Martin Remacle takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Tamar Svetlin takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Dawid Blanik takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Martin Remacle takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Martin Remacle takes a right-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Dawid Blanik's right-footed shot is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Tamar Svetlin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
28
Attempt Attempt
Martin Remacle takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Update Update
Hubert Zwozny is on, and Wiktor Dlugosz is off.
25
Attempt Attempt
Mohamed Lamine Diaby attempts a header but misses the shot.
20
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wiktor Dlugosz receives a yellow card.
18
Attempt Attempt
Adriano Luis Amorim Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
10
Attempt Attempt
Simon Gustafson takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Raków Częstochowa's 2-0 triumph over Korona Kielce was a textbook display of superiority, converting even possession into a clean-sheet victory after a goalless first half. The minimal deviation and perfect market alignment affirm the reliability of pre-match evaluations, with no disruptive events like red cards interfering. This result boosts Raków's momentum, showcasing their efficiency under pressure and ability to grind out wins against resilient opponents. Korona's efforts yielded nothing, exposing their struggles against top-tier defenses. Overall, the match reinforced Raków's credentials as title contenders, setting a strong foundation for upcoming fixtures.

Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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