Raków Częstochowa vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Raków Wed, 13 May - 6:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
0 Winner 2
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok
Full Time Wed, 13 May 6:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
|
Goal
Kajetan Szmyt - 82'
Yuki Kobayashi - 34'

CONTEXT

Raków Częstochowa welcomed Jagiellonia Białystok in a match that concluded 0-2 to the visitors. Despite enjoying 60% possession, the home side, deemed stronger beforehand, failed to score, succumbing to Jagiellonia's sharp counterattacks. The away team led 1-0 at halftime and sealed victory with a second-half goal. Raków dominated territory but lacked clinical edge, allowing Jagiellonia to exploit limited opportunities efficiently. No red cards marred proceedings, and play flowed without major interruptions or second-half tactical shifts. This outcome marks a significant upset, with Jagiellonia achieving a 71.2% structural deviation from expectations. The result underscores how possession alone does not guarantee success, rewarding the more precise side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Jagiellonia Białystok recorded a significant structural deviation of 71.2%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was false as pre-match expectations were not met.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to null data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events influenced the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in zero distortion.
  • Market: Raków Częstochowa 44.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.7% (Δ+0%) | Jagiellonia Białystok 28.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Marciniak

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.37
Yellow cards / match 3.26
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.2
Raków Częstochowa D. Kroczek
D. Kroczek
VS
Jagiellonia Białystok A. Siemieniec
A. Siemieniec
1.53
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.29
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Korona Kielce Rank: 61 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 59 W
Motor Lublin Rank: 61 D
Widzew Lodz Rank: 61 D
Legia Warszawa Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 63 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 66 L
Arka Gdynia Rank: 57 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 71 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 56 L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 3 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Raków Częstochowa
44.45%
Draw
26.73%
Away Jagiellonia Białystok
28.82%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.42
65.29
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Raków Częstochowa
Jagiellonia Białystok
Power Score
69.42
65.29
League Position
3
2
Global Rank
227
329

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Raków Częstochowa — Opponent-weighted form score
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Raków Częstochowa Jagiellonia Białystok

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Raków Częstochowa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Raków Częstochowa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jagiellonia Białystok
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Raków Częstochowa Jagiellonia Białystok
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Raków Częstochowa Jagiellonia Białystok
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Raków Częstochowa
Jagiellonia Białystok
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Raków Częstochowa
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Raków Częstochowa Jagiellonia Białystok
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Raków Częstochowa 0.00
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Raków Częstochowa Jagiellonia Białystok
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Raków Częstochowa 0.00
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.00
Raków Częstochowa
Jagiellonia Białystok
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Raków Częstochowa had peak pressure around 53'.
  • Raków Częstochowa started the game with stronger pressure.
Raków Częstochowa Pressure Jagiellonia Białystok Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Raków Częstochowa reached the top pressure at 53' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa Home
13 matches
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Away
Match Record
7
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
7
Goals
25
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
25
+7
Goal Difference
-7

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T18:30:23+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
K. Trelowski
Poland
1 K. Trelowski
F. Tudor
Croatia
7 F. Tudor
B. Racovitan
France
25 B. Racovitan
E. Svarnas
Greece
4 E. Svarnas
M. Ameyaw
Substitution
Poland
19 M. Ameyaw
O. Repka
Poland
6 O. Repka
M. Bulat
Substitution
Croatia
5 M. Bulat
A. Amorim Santos
Brazil
11 A. Amorim Santos
M. Diaby Fadiga
Substitution
France
80 M. Diaby Fadiga
J. Brunes
Norway
18 J. Brunes
P. Makuch
Substitution
Poland
9 P. Makuch
Pitch
S. Abramowicz
Poland
50 S. Abramowicz
G. Serrão Montóia
Portugal
23 G. Serrão Montóia
Y. Kobayashi
Japan
4 Y. Kobayashi
B. Cardoso Vital
Substitution
Portugal
13 B. Cardoso Vital
N. Wojtuszek
Poland
15 N. Wojtuszek
S. Lozano Lluch
Substitution
Spain
21 S. Lozano Lluch
T. Romanczuk
Poland
6 T. Romanczuk
K. Szmyt
Substitution
Poland
77 K. Szmyt
J. Imaz Ballesté
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Imaz Ballesté
A. Pozo Pozo
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Pozo Pozo
A. Pululu
France
10 A. Pululu

General Information

Date & Time :
May 13, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Raków
Capacity :
11600
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Szymon Marciniak

Statistics

Possession
Raków Częstochowa
59%
Jagiellonia Białystok
41%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
13 Shots 3
105 Dangerous attacks 42
60 Possession 40
6 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
15 Dribble Attempts 12
67 Ball Safe 82
20 Throwins 17
8 Successful Dribbles 4
17 Goal Attempts 9
3 Goal Kicks 18
0 Assists 2
1 Injuries 4

Attacking

129 Attacks 72
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

433 Successful Passes 266
496 Passes 347
39 Long Passes 62
27 Successful Long Passes 20
87 Successful Passes Percentage 77
20 Key Passes 11
69 Successful Long Passes Percentage 32

Defensive

16 Tackles 15
11 Interceptions 10
46 Duels Won 36
5 Saves 3

Build-up

40 Total Crosses 8
17 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

8 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

1
Kacper Trelowski
Kacper Trelowski Goalkeeper
6.72
4
Stratos Svarnas
Stratos Svarnas Defender
7.06
7
Fran Tudor
Fran Tudor Defender
7.03
25
Bogdan Racovițan
Bogdan Racovițan Defender
6.82
5
Marko Bulat
Marko Bulat Midfielder
6.99
30
Vladyslav Kochergin
Vladyslav Kochergin
Midfielder79'
6.87
6
Oskar Repka
Oskar Repka Midfielder
6.86
11
Adriano
Adriano Midfielder
6.74
19
Michael Ameyaw
Michael Ameyaw Midfielder
7.04
10
Ivi López
Ivi López
Midfielder67'
6.94
9
Patryk Makuch
Patryk Makuch Attacker
6.96
17
Leonardo Rocha
Leonardo Rocha
Attacker67'
6.78
18
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Jonatan Braut Brunes Attacker
7.09
80
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
Lamine Diaby-Fadiga Attacker
6.97
8
Tomasz Pienko
Tomasz Pienko
Midfielder11'
6.73
Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

50
Slawomir Abramowicz
Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper
6.9
4
Yuki Kobayashi
Yuki Kobayashi Defender
6.66
13
Bernardo Vital
Bernardo Vital Defender
7.03
44
Apostolos Konstantopoulos
Apostolos Konstantopoulos
Defender56'
6.78
15
Norbert Wojtuszek
Norbert Wojtuszek Defender
6.91
23
Guilherme Montóia
Guilherme Montóia Defender
6.95
6
Taras Romanczuk
Taras Romanczuk Midfielder
7.04
7
Álex Pozo
Álex Pozo Midfielder
6.85
85
Eryk Kozlowski
Eryk Kozlowski
Midfielder80'
6.6
11
Jesús Imaz
Jesús Imaz Midfielder
7.31
19
Matías Nahuel
Matías Nahuel
Midfielder79'
6.74
21
Sergio Lozano
Sergio Lozano Midfielder
6.89
86
Bartosz Mazurek
Bartosz Mazurek
Midfielder56'
6.82
77
Kajetan Szmyt
Kajetan Szmyt Midfielder
6.81
27
Bartlomiej Wdowik
Bartlomiej Wdowik
Defender89'
7.03
10
Afimico Pululu
Afimico Pululu Attacker
7.06

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Bartlomiej Wdowik → Kajetan Szmyt
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Kajetan Szmyt
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
80'
Event
Eryk Kozlowski → Álex Pozo
8th Substitution
Event
Vladyslav Kochergin → Marko Bulat
6th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Matías Nahuel → Jesús Imaz
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Taras Romanczuk
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Ivi López → Michael Ameyaw
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Leonardo Rocha → Patryk Makuch
5th Substitution
67'
65'
Event
Apostolos Konstantopoulos
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
56'
Event
Bartosz Mazurek → Sergio Lozano
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Apostolos Konstantopoulos → Bernardo Vital
2nd Substitution
52'
Event
Bernardo Vital
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Oskar Repka
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
1ST-HALF
34'
Event
Yuki Kobayashi
Header / 1st Goal
31'
Event
Norbert Wojtuszek
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Tomasz Pienko → Lamine Diaby-Fadiga
1st Substitution
11'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Miramar Rocha attempts a header but misses the shot.
89
Update Update
Bartlomiej Wdowik is on, and Kajetan Szmyt is off.
87
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Ivan Lopez Alvarez, Ivi Lopez's right-footed shot is saved.
86
Attempt Attempt
Taras Romanczuk's header is saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Afimico Pululu takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
82
Attempt Attempt
Kajetan Szmyt takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
81
Attempt Attempt
Adriano Luis Amorim Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
80
Update Update
Kozlowski is on, and Alejandro Pozo is off.
79
Update Update
Matias Nahuel Leiva comes on for Jesus Imaz Balleste.
79
Update Update
Vladyslav Kochergin comes on for Marko Bulat.
76
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Miramar Rocha takes a left-footed shot but misses.
75
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Miramar Rocha attempts a header but misses the shot.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Taras Romanczuk receives a yellow card.
68
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Marko Bulat takes a right-footed shot but misses.
67
Update Update
Leonardo Miramar Rocha comes on for Patryk Makuch.
63
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Kajetan Szmyt takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Oskar Repka takes a left-footed shot but misses.
56
Update Update
Bartosz Mazurek comes on for Sergio Lozano.
56
Update Update
Apostolos Konstantopoulos comes on for Bernardo Vital.
54
Attempt Attempt
Jonatan Braut Brunes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Jonatan Braut Brunes takes a left-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Jonatan Braut Brunes takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
52
Update Update
Bogdan Racovitan's header is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Marko Bulat's right-footed shot is blocked.
49
Update Update
Stratos Svarnas attempts a header but misses the target.
47
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Makuch's right-footed shot is saved.
47
Attempt Attempt
Jonatan Braut Brunes takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Imaz Balleste takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Jonatan Braut Brunes takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
41
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Makuch's left-footed shot is blocked.
34
Update Update
Yuki Kobayashi scores with a header.
30
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Lozano takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Adriano Luis Amorim Santos takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Lozano's right-footed shot is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Adriano Luis Amorim Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
22
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Makuch takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Makuch's header is saved.
19
Attempt Attempt
Marko Bulat takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Alejandro Pozo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
11
Update Update
Tomasz Pienko comes on for Mohamed Lamine Diaby.
7
Attempt Attempt
Taras Romanczuk takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Marko Bulat takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Sergio Lozano takes a right-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Taras Romanczuk takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Jagiellonia Białystok exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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