Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Raków Sat, 23 May - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
3 Winner 0
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia
Full Time Sat, 23 May 3:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Jean Carlos Silva - 75'
Jonatan Braut Brunes - 71'
Marko Bulat - 37'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Dawid Gojny 49'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Raków Częstochowa 3–0 Arka Gdynia. The result saw Raków Częstochowa take the points. Raków Częstochowa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 60%–40%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Arka Gdynia. Raków Częstochowa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Stefanski

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Mucha

1st Assistant

Poland

A. Zbytniewski

2nd Assistant

Poland

K. Wójcik

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.3
Yellow cards / match 3.82
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.23
Raków Częstochowa D. Kroczek
D. Kroczek
VS
Arka Gdynia D. Banasik
D. Banasik
1.61
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.06
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 65 L
Korona Kielce Rank: 61 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 58 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 W
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nieciecza Rank: 51 L
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 67 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 72 D
Piast Gliwice Rank: 60 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 67 L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Raków Częstochowa
74.4%
Draw
17.57%
Away Arka Gdynia
8.03%

Movement

Changes since opening
Raków Częstochowa
-22.9%
Draw
+15.2%
Arka Gdynia
+7.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.45
49.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Raków Częstochowa
Arka Gdynia
Power Score
69.45
49.3
League Position
4
17
Global Rank
225
638

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Raków Częstochowa — Opponent-weighted form score
Arka Gdynia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Raków Częstochowa Arka Gdynia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Raków Częstochowa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arka Gdynia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Raków Częstochowa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.58
24.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.88
23.58
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Raków Częstochowa -0.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Arka Gdynia +0.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Raków Częstochowa
Arka Gdynia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Raków Częstochowa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arka Gdynia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Raków Częstochowa Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Raków Częstochowa Arka Gdynia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Raków Częstochowa
Arka Gdynia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Raków Częstochowa
vs
Arka Gdynia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Raków Częstochowa Arka Gdynia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Raków Częstochowa 0.28
Arka Gdynia 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Raków Częstochowa Arka Gdynia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Raków Częstochowa 0.00
Arka Gdynia 0.07
Raków Częstochowa
Arka Gdynia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Raków Częstochowa had peak pressure around 76'.
  • Arka Gdynia started the game with stronger pressure.
Raków Częstochowa Pressure Arka Gdynia Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Raków Częstochowa reached the top pressure at 76' (64.74).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa Home
4 matches
Arka Gdynia Arka Gdynia Away
Match Record
3
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
3
Goals
11
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
11
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:03:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
K. Trelowski
Poland
1 K. Trelowski
F. Tudor
Croatia
7 F. Tudor
B. Racovitan
Substitution
France
25 B. Racovitan
A. Mosór
Poland
2 A. Mosór
J. Silva Rocha
Substitution
Brazil
20 J. Silva Rocha
O. Repka
Poland
6 O. Repka
M. Bulat
Croatia
5 M. Bulat
A. Amorim Santos
Substitution
Brazil
11 A. Amorim Santos
P. Makuch
Substitution
Poland
9 P. Makuch
J. Brunes
Norway
18 J. Brunes
T. Pieńko
Substitution
Poland
8 T. Pieńko
Pitch
J. Grobelny
Poland
1 J. Grobelny
D. Gojny
Poland
94 D. Gojny
M. Marcjanik
Poland
29 M. Marcjanik
S. Szota
Poland
3 S. Szota
D. Abramowicz
Poland
33 D. Abramowicz
M. Rzuchowski
Poland
22 M. Rzuchowski
A. Sidibe
Substitution
Ivory Coast
8 A. Sidibe
D. Zator
Substitution
Canada
4 D. Zator
D. Kocyla
Substitution
Poland
11 D. Kocyla
P. Szysz
Substitution
Poland
21 P. Szysz
V. Gutkovskis
Substitution
Latvia
19 V. Gutkovskis

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Raków
Capacity :
11600
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Daniel Stefanski
Sebastian Mucha
A. Zbytniewski
Karol Wójcik

Statistics

Possession
Raków Częstochowa
59%
Arka Gdynia
41%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
0 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 3
43 Dangerous attacks 39
60 Possession 40
1 Corners 4
10 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

10 Goal Kicks 10
16 Dribble Attempts 10
11 Successful Dribbles 2
69 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
19 Throwins 11
11 Goal Attempts 5
74 Ball Safe 66
3 Assists 0
2 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
92 Attacks 68

Possession

23 Successful Long Passes 18
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
83 Successful Passes Percentage 78
397 Successful Passes 236
58 Long Passes 52
476 Passes 301
8 Key Passes 6

Defensive

49 Duels Won 38
4 Interceptions 8
10 Tackles 9
2 Saves 2

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 3
7 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

14 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Stefanski

Starting XI ▼

1
Kacper Trelowski
Kacper Trelowski Goalkeeper
2
Ariel Mosor
Ariel Mosor Defender
7
Fran Tudor
Fran Tudor Defender
25
Bogdan Racovițan
Bogdan Racovițan Defender
27
Paweł Dawidowicz
Paweł Dawidowicz
Defender46'
5
Marko Bulat
Marko Bulat Midfielder
6
Oskar Repka
Oskar Repka Midfielder
11
Adriano
Adriano Midfielder
19
Michael Ameyaw
Michael Ameyaw
Midfielder68'
20
Jean Carlos Silva
Jean Carlos Silva Midfielder
35
Mitja Ilenčič
Mitja Ilenčič
Defender80'
8
Tomasz Pienko
Tomasz Pienko Attacker
10
Ivi López
Ivi López
Midfielder61'
9
Patryk Makuch
Patryk Makuch Attacker
17
Leonardo Rocha
Leonardo Rocha
Attacker81'
18
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Jonatan Braut Brunes Attacker
Referee : Daniel Stefanski

Starting XI ▼

1
Jedrzej Grobelny
Jedrzej Grobelny Goalkeeper
3
Serafin Szota
Serafin Szota Defender
29
Michal Marcjanik
Michal Marcjanik Defender
94
Dawid Gojny
Dawid Gojny Defender
4
Dominick Zator
Dominick Zator Midfielder
43
Wojciech Zacharewicz
Wojciech Zacharewicz
Defender90+2'
8
Alassane Sidibe
Alassane Sidibe Midfielder
41
Olaf Gohlike
Olaf Gohlike
Defender90+2'
22
Michal Rzuchowski
Michal Rzuchowski Midfielder
33
Dawid Abramowicz
Dawid Abramowicz Midfielder
11
Dawid Kocyla
Dawid Kocyla Attacker
42
Nikodem Gozdecki
Nikodem Gozdecki
Midfielder64'
19
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Vladislavs Gutkovskis Attacker
99
Edu Espiau
Edu Espiau
Attacker64'
21
Patryk Szysz
Patryk Szysz Attacker
2
Marc Navarro
Marc Navarro
Defender72'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Wojciech Zacharewicz → Dominick Zator
10th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Olaf Gohlike → Alassane Sidibe
9th Substitution
Event
Leonardo Rocha → Patryk Makuch
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Mitja Ilenčič → Jean Carlos Silva
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Jean Carlos Silva
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
75'
72'
Event
Marc Navarro → Patryk Szysz
6th Substitution
Event
Jonatan Braut Brunes
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
71'
Event
Michael Ameyaw → Adriano
5th Substitution
68'
64'
Event
Edu Espiau → Vladislavs Gutkovskis
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Nikodem Gozdecki → Dawid Kocyla
4th Substitution
Event
Ivi López → Tomasz Pienko
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Adriano
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
60'
50'
Event
Dawid Gojny
Card adjusted
49'
Event
Dawid Gojny
1st Redcard
Event
Paweł Dawidowicz → Bogdan Racovițan
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Marko Bulat
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
37'
32'
Event
Alassane Sidibe
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
14'
Event
Dawid Gojny
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jonatan Braut Brunes takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
90
Update Update
Wojciech Zacharewicz comes on for Dominick Zator.
90
Attempt Attempt
Marcos Navarro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Substitution Substitution
Olaf Gohlike is substituted for Alassane Sidibe.
88
Attempt Attempt
Dawid Abramowicz takes a shot with his head, but it is saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Dawid Abramowicz takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
81
Update Update
Leonardo Miramar Rocha comes on for Patryk Makuch.
80
Update Update
Mitja Ilenic comes on for Jean Carlos Silva Rocha.
75
Attempt Attempt
Shot! Jean Carlos Silva Rocha scores with a right-footed shot.
72
Update Update
Marcos Navarro comes on for Patryk Szysz.
71
Attempt Attempt
Jonatan Braut Brunes takes a left-footed shot and scores.
68
Update Update
Michael Ameyaw is on, and Adriano Luis Amorim Santos is off.
64
Update Update
Nikodem Gozdecki replaces Dawid Kocyla.
64
Update Update
Eduardo David Espiau Hernandez comes on for Vladislavs Gutkovskis.
61
Update Update
Ivan Lopez Alvarez is on, and Tomasz Pienko is off.
59
Attempt Attempt
Michal Marcjanik's left-footed shot is blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Fran Tudor takes a right-footed shot, but it misses the target.
53
Attempt Attempt
Dawid Kocyla takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Pienko attempts a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Jonatan Braut Brunes takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
50
Update Update
VAR decision results in a change of card for Dawid Gojny.
48
Attempt Attempt
Fran Tudor takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Pawel Dawidowicz comes on for Bogdan Racovitan.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Pienko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Pienko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
42
Attempt Attempt
Alassane Sidibe takes a left-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Marko Bulat takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
28
Update Update
Michal Rzuchowski attempts a header but misses the target.
20
Attempt Attempt
Patryk Szysz takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Marko Bulat takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Marko Bulat takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Raków Częstochowa 3-0 Arka Gdynia. Structural assessment: Raków Częstochowa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Ekstraklasa, Poland View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Dan A

Dan A creates clear football match previews built around team form, performance trends, and practical pre-match insights.