Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdańsk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza Mon, 4 May - 5:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom
3 Winner 1
Lechia Gdańsk LGD
Full Time Mon, 4 May 5:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Abdoul Tapsoba - 48', 45', 26'
Goal
|
Goal
Tomas Bobcek - 66' (P)
Jérémy Blasco 36' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Radomiak Radom claimed a hard-fought 3-1 home win against Lechia Gdańsk in the Ekstraklasa. The hosts surged to a 2-0 halftime lead despite holding just 33% possession, capitalizing on early efficiency. Lechia Gdańsk controlled 67% of the ball overall and dominated the second half, but Radomiak's defense stood resilient even after a red card reduced them to 10 men. The visitors scored once to spark hope, yet Radomiak struck back for the decisive third goal. Labeled the stronger team, Radomiak showcased counter-attacking prowess and grit, defying possession stats. This outcome featured a significant 63.2% structural deviation, highlighting their overperformance amid adverse conditions like the red card distortion in the second half.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Radomiak Radom's 3-1 victory showed a significant 63.2% structural deviation.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment was unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: Home red card altered match dynamics significantly.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion influenced second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Marciniak

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

T. Listkiewicz

1st Assistant

Poland

K. Nejman

2nd Assistant

Poland

D. Wiśniewski

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.25
Yellow cards / match 3.27
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.22
Radomiak Radom B. Nunes Baltazar
B. Nunes Baltazar
VS
Lechia Gdańsk J. Carver
J. Carver
1.31
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wisła Płock Rank: 58 W
Widzew Lodz Rank: 59 W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 L
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 D
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 L
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 68 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 59 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 57 L
Korona Kielce Rank: 61 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 63 W
Katowice Rank: 65 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Radomiak Radom
36.78%
Draw
27.09%
Away Lechia Gdańsk
36.13%

Movement

Changes since opening
Radomiak Radom
-61.08%
Draw
+25.17%
Lechia Gdańsk
+35.91%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.63
59.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Radomiak Radom
Lechia Gdańsk
Power Score
61.63
59.93
League Position
8
15
Global Rank
429
485

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Radomiak Radom — Opponent-weighted form score
Lechia Gdańsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Radomiak Radom Lechia Gdańsk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Radomiak Radom

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lechia Gdańsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lechia Gdańsk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.64
46.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
46.79
43.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Radomiak Radom -0.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Lechia Gdańsk +0.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Lechia Gdańsk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lechia Gdańsk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Radomiak Radom Lechia Gdańsk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Radomiak Radom Lechia Gdańsk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Lechia Gdańsk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Radomiak Radom
vs
Lechia Gdańsk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Radomiak Radom Lechia Gdańsk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Radomiak Radom 0.46
Lechia Gdańsk 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Radomiak Radom Lechia Gdańsk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Radomiak Radom 0.01
Lechia Gdańsk 0.11
Radomiak Radom
Lechia Gdańsk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LGD had peak pressure around 71'.
  • LGD started the game with stronger pressure.
Radomiak Radom Pressure LGD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LGD reached the top pressure at 71' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom Home
7 matches
Lechia Gdańsk LGD Away
Match Record
5
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
5
Goals
15
Goals Scored
7
7
Goals Conceded
15
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-05-05T00:02:30+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
F. Majchrowicz
Poland
1 F. Majchrowicz
Z. Ouattara
Ivory Coast
24 Z. Ouattara
J. Blasco
France
5 J. Blasco
A. Diéguez Grande
Spain
26 A. Diéguez Grande
J. Grzesik
Poland
13 J. Grzesik
C. Donis
Substitution
Greece
77 C. Donis
A. Tapsoba
Substitution
Burkina Faso
15 A. Tapsoba
L. Lima Linhares
Brazil
82 L. Lima Linhares
R. Wolski
Substitution
Poland
27 R. Wolski
E. Baldé
Substitution
Portugal
21 E. Baldé
M. Roque Junior
Substitution
Brazil
25 M. Roque Junior
Pitch
A. Paulsen
New Zealand
18 A. Paulsen
M. Vojtko
Substitution
Slovakia
27 M. Vojtko
M. Rodin
Croatia
80 M. Rodin
M. Dyachuk
Ukraine
15 M. Dyachuk
T. Wójtowicz
Substitution
Poland
33 T. Wójtowicz
A. Ćirković
Serbia
8 A. Ćirković
I. Zhelizko
Ukraine
5 I. Zhelizko
R. Kapič
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 R. Kapič
C. Mena Márquez
Colombia
11 C. Mena Márquez
B. V'Yunnik
Substitution
Ukraine
7 B. V'Yunnik
T. Bobček
Slovakia
89 T. Bobček

General Information

Date & Time :
May 04, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza
Capacity :
5000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Szymon Marciniak
Tomasz Listkiewicz
K. Nejman
Dawid Wiśniewski

Statistics

Possession
Radomiak Radom
38%
LGD
62%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 4
5 Shots 7
28 Dangerous attacks 87
33 Possession 67
4 Corners 7
9 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

15 Throwins 20
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 65
20 Goal Kicks 4
6 Successful Dribbles 15
14 Dribble Attempts 23
1 Hit Woodwork 0
71 Ball Safe 65
8 Goal Attempts 18
5 Substitutions 3
2 Assists 0
0 Penalties 1
1 Injuries 2

Attacking

70 Attacks 86
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

172 Successful Passes 403
69 Successful Passes Percentage 85
250 Passes 475
57 Long Passes 31
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
18 Successful Long Passes 15
8 Key Passes 23

Defensive

49 Duels Won 54
6 Saves 2
10 Interceptions 5
13 Tackles 12

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 46
3 Accurate Crosses 12

Discipline

10 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Majchrowicz
Filip Majchrowicz Goalkeeper
6.77
5
Jérémy Blasco
Jérémy Blasco Defender
6.72
13
Jan Grzesik
Jan Grzesik Defender
7.06
24
Zié Ouattara
Zié Ouattara Defender
6.96
26
Adrián Diéguez
Adrián Diéguez Defender
6.75
15
Abdoul Tapsoba
Abdoul Tapsoba Midfielder
3
6.69
19
Salifou Soumah
Salifou Soumah
Attacker70'
6.57
21
Elves Baldé
Elves Baldé Midfielder
6.75
16
Mateusz Cichocki
Mateusz Cichocki
Defender56'
6.66
27
Rafal Wolski
Rafal Wolski Midfielder
7.02
2
Ibrahima Camará
Ibrahima Camará
Midfielder56'
6.78
77
Christos Donis
Christos Donis Midfielder
6.64
6
Romário Baró
Romário Baró
Midfielder70'
6.71
82
Luquinhas
Luquinhas Midfielder
6.79
25
Maurides Roque Junior
Maurides Roque Junior Attacker
7.06
14
Steve Kingue
Steve Kingue
Defender39'
6.62
Referee : Szymon Marciniak

Starting XI ▼

18
Alex Paulsen
Alex Paulsen Goalkeeper
6.72
15
Maksym Dyachuk
Maksym Dyachuk Defender
6.73
27
Matus Vojtko
Matus Vojtko Defender
6.69
23
Milosz Kalahur
Milosz Kalahur
Defender83'
6.28
33
Tomasz Wojtowicz
Tomasz Wojtowicz Defender
6.72
2
Bartlomiej Kludka
Bartlomiej Kludka
Defender83'
6.65
80
Matej Rodin
Matej Rodin Defender
6.94
5
Ivan Zhelizko
Ivan Zhelizko Midfielder
7.25
8
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Aleksandar Cirkovic Midfielder
6.99
10
Rifet Kapic
Rifet Kapic Midfielder
7.04
11
Camilo Mena
Camilo Mena Midfielder
7.05
7
Bogdan Viunnyk
Bogdan Viunnyk Attacker
6.71
99
Tomasz Neugebauer
Tomasz Neugebauer
Midfielder44'
6.72
89
Tomas Bobcek
Tomas Bobcek Attacker
7.3

Events

2ND-HALF
85'
Event
Milosz Kalahur
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Milosz Kalahur → Matus Vojtko
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Bartlomiej Kludka → Tomasz Wojtowicz
8th Substitution
Event
Salifou Soumah → Abdoul Tapsoba
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Romário Baró → Christos Donis
5th Substitution
70'
66'
Event
Tomas Bobcek
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
65'
Event
Tomasz Neugebauer
Penalty awarded
Event
Zié Ouattara
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
62'
Event
Ibrahima Camará → Rafal Wolski
3rd Substitution
56'
Event
Mateusz Cichocki → Elves Baldé
4th Substitution
56'
Event
Abdoul Tapsoba
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
48'
1ST-HALF
Event
Abdoul Tapsoba
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
45'
44'
Event
Tomasz Neugebauer → Bogdan Viunnyk
2nd Substitution
Event
Steve Kingue → Maurides Roque Junior
1st Substitution
39'
Event
Jérémy Blasco
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
36'
30'
Event
Bogdan Viunnyk
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Abdoul Tapsoba
Header / 1st Goal
26'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jan Grzesik takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Romario Baro takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Cirkovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Salifou Soumah takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
88
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Cirkovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
83
Update Update
Bartlomiej Kludka comes on for Tomasz Wojtowicz.
83
Update Update
Milosz Kalahur is on, and Matus Vojtko is off.
70
Update Update
Salifou Soumah comes on for Abdoul Tapsoba.
70
Update Update
Romario Baro is on, and Christos Donis is off.
66
Update Update
Goal in the penalty shootout! Tomas Bobcek scores, making it 3-1.
66
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
65
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Neugebauer's right-footed shot is blocked.
65
Update Update
Penalty awarded after a VAR decision for Tomasz Neugebauer.
64
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek attempts a header but misses the shot.
63
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Zhelizko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Luquinhas takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
56
Update Update
Mateusz Cichocki is on, and Elves Balde is off.
52
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Cirkovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Zhelizko takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Abdoul Tapsoba scores with a right-footed shot.
48
Attempt Attempt
Abdoul Tapsoba scores with a right-footed shot.
47
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Neugebauer takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Camilo Mena takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
46
Attempt Attempt
Matej Rodin takes a shot with his head but misses.
45
Update Update
Goal! Abdoul Tapsoba scores, making it 2-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Abdoul Tapsoba scores with a left-footed shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Matej Rodin takes a shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Zhelizko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Update Update
Tomasz Neugebauer comes on for Bogdan Vyunnik.
39
Update Update
Steve Kingue replaces Maurides Roque Junior.
38
Attempt Attempt
Rifet Kapic's left-footed shot is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek takes a header but misses the shot.
30
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Wolski takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
28
Attempt Attempt
Matej Rodin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Zhelizko takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
26
Update Update
Abdoul Tapsoba scores with a header.
21
Attempt Attempt
Maksym Dyachuk takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Wolski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Wolski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Elves Balde takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
15
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Cirkovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek takes a left-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Cirkovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Bogdan Vyunnik's left-footed shot is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Zhelizko takes a right-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Jan Grzesik attempts a header but misses the shot.
2
Attempt Attempt
Matej Rodin's header is saved.

CONCLUSION

Radomiak Radom's 3-1 success epitomizes resilience, as they overcame 33% possession and a red card to defeat possession-dominant Lechia Gdańsk. The 2-0 halftime edge proved crucial, with second-half defending neutralizing threats despite the numerical disadvantage. This significant structural deviation underscores tactical execution and mental fortitude from the stronger side. Market alignment affirms the result's consistency with expectations, while red card distortion added unpredictability. Radomiak's win bolsters momentum, proving they thrive in chaos and could challenge higher up the table.

Radomiak Radom vs Lechia Gdańsk preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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