Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznań Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza Sat, 16 May - 6:15 PM
Ekstraklasa
Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom
1 Winner 3
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań
Full Time Sat, 16 May 6:15 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Jan Grzesik - 8'
Goal
|
Goal
Patrik Wålemark - 58'
Luis Palma - 22'
Mikael Ishak - 16'

CONTEXT

In the recent league fixture, Radomiak Radom hosted Lech Poznań and suffered a 1-3 defeat. The match began with Radomiak taking an early lead, but Lech Poznań quickly equalized and took the lead before halftime, making the score 1-2 at the break. The second half saw Lech Poznań extend their advantage with a third goal, sealing the victory. Despite Radomiak holding 55 percent possession, they were unable to convert their territorial advantage into more goals. Lech Poznań, as the stronger team, showed clinical finishing to overcome the home side. The game proceeded without any red cards, ensuring a full complement of players on the pitch throughout. This outcome reflects Lech Poznań's ability to perform under pressure and capitalize on opportunities presented during the match.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match showed minimal structural deviation of 2.1 percent favoring Lech Poznań.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency was in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was not available for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned with pre-match indications.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: Lech Poznań secured a 3-1 victory after leading 2-1 at halftime.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in no distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

K. Arys

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Boniek

1st Assistant

Poland

M. Janawa

2nd Assistant

Poland

P. Urban

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.82
Yellow cards / match 3.48
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.19
Radomiak Radom B. Nunes Baltazar
B. Nunes Baltazar
VS
Lech Poznań N. Frederiksen
N. Frederiksen
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.94
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 D
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 W
Wisła Płock Rank: 58 W
Widzew Lodz Rank: 60 W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 L
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arka Gdynia Rank: 55 D
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 W
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 63 W
Katowice Rank: 65 D
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 66 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Radomiak Radom
0.22%
Draw
1.92%
Away Lech Poznań
97.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.73
71.55
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Radomiak Radom
Lech Poznań
Power Score
60.73
71.55
League Position
9
1
Global Rank
453
161

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Radomiak Radom — Opponent-weighted form score
Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Radomiak Radom Lech Poznań

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Radomiak Radom

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.27
29.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.67
17.27
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Radomiak Radom -1.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Lech Poznań +1.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Lech Poznań
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Radomiak Radom ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Radomiak Radom Lech Poznań
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Radomiak Radom Lech Poznań
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Radomiak Radom
Lech Poznań
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Radomiak Radom
vs
Lech Poznań
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Radomiak Radom Lech Poznań
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Radomiak Radom 0.14
Lech Poznań 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Radomiak Radom Lech Poznań
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Radomiak Radom 0.06
Lech Poznań 0.02
Radomiak Radom
Lech Poznań
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Lech Poznań had peak pressure around 18'.
  • Radomiak Radom started the game with stronger pressure.
Radomiak Radom Pressure Lech Poznań Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Lech Poznań reached the top pressure at 18' (88.54).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom Home
9 matches
Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
1
Goals
9
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
9
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T08:58:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
F. Majchrowicz
Poland
1 F. Majchrowicz
Z. Ouattara
Ivory Coast
24 Z. Ouattara
S. Kingue
Cameroon
14 S. Kingue
A. Diéguez Grande
Spain
26 A. Diéguez Grande
J. Grzesik
Poland
13 J. Grzesik
C. Donis
Substitution
Greece
77 C. Donis
E. Baldé
Substitution
Portugal
21 E. Baldé
R. Silva Baró
Substitution
Portugal
6 R. Silva Baró
L. Lima Linhares
Brazil
82 L. Lima Linhares
V. Fortes Lopes
Substitution
7 V. Fortes Lopes
L. Rossi Pereira
Substitution
Brazil
9 (C) L. Rossi Pereira
Pitch
B. Mrozek
Poland
41 B. Mrozek
M. Gurgul
Poland
15 M. Gurgul
W. Mońka
Poland
27 W. Mońka
M. Skrzypczak
Poland
72 M. Skrzypczak
J. Vieira Pereira
Portugal
2 J. Vieira Pereira
L. Bengtsson
Substitution
Sweden
14 L. Bengtsson
P. Delgado
Substitution
Spain
99 P. Delgado
A. Kozubal
Poland
43 A. Kozubal
P. Wålemark
Substitution
Sweden
10 P. Wålemark
L. Palma Oseguera
Substitution
Honduras
77 L. Palma Oseguera
M. Ishak
Substitution
Sweden
9 (C) M. Ishak

General Information

Date & Time :
May 16, 2026, 06:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza
Capacity :
5000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Karol Arys
Marcin Boniek
Marcin Janawa
Piotr Urban

Statistics

Possession
Radomiak Radom
53%
Lech Poznań
47%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
0 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 5
50 Dangerous attacks 47
55 Possession 45
4 Corners 3
15 Free kicks 16
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

13 Dribble Attempts 20
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
20 Throwins 14
1 Assists 3
5 Substitutions 5
7 Goal Kicks 4
7 Successful Dribbles 9
69 Ball Safe 57
3 Goal Attempts 10
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

100 Attacks 80

Possession

386 Passes 322
85 Successful Passes Percentage 80
18 Successful Long Passes 20
329 Successful Passes 257
39 Long Passes 45
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
5 Key Passes 10

Defensive

45 Duels Won 47
12 Tackles 11
2 Saves 1
1 Interceptions 4

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 6
4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

16 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Karol Arys

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Majchrowicz
Filip Majchrowicz Goalkeeper
6.11
13
Jan Grzesik
Jan Grzesik Defender
6.97
14
Steve Kingue
Steve Kingue Defender
6.49
24
Zié Ouattara
Zié Ouattara Defender
6.13
26
Adrián Diéguez
Adrián Diéguez Defender
6.39
6
Romário Baró
Romário Baró Midfielder
6.68
10
Roberto Alves
Roberto Alves
Midfielder84'
6.42
7
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes Midfielder
6.29
20
João Pedro Reginaldo
João Pedro Reginaldo
Defender65'
6.56
21
Elves Baldé
Elves Baldé Midfielder
6.18
19
Salifou Soumah
Salifou Soumah
Attacker66'
6.69
77
Christos Donis
Christos Donis Midfielder
6.37
17
Adam Żabicki
Adam Żabicki
Midfielder84'
6.5
82
Luquinhas
Luquinhas Midfielder
6.55
9
Leândro
Leândro (C) Attacker
6.5
25
Maurides Roque Junior
Maurides Roque Junior
Attacker12'
6.77
Referee : Karol Arys

Starting XI ▼

41
Bartosz Mrozek
Bartosz Mrozek Goalkeeper
6.63
2
Joel Pereira
Joel Pereira Defender
6.83
15
Michal Gurgul
Michal Gurgul Defender
6.67
27
Wojciech Mońka
Wojciech Mońka Defender
6.65
72
Mateusz Skrzypczak
Mateusz Skrzypczak Defender
6.67
10
Patrik Wålemark
Patrik Wålemark Midfielder
7.3
11
Daniel Håkans
Daniel Håkans
Midfielder66'
6.18
14
Leo Bengtsson
Leo Bengtsson Midfielder
7.17
88
Taofeek Ismaheel
Taofeek Ismaheel
Midfielder78'
6.26
43
Antoni Kozubal
Antoni Kozubal Midfielder
7
99
Pablo Rodríguez
Pablo Rodríguez Midfielder
6.99
22
Radoslaw Murawski
Radoslaw Murawski
Midfielder78'
6.38
9
Mikael Ishak
Mikael Ishak (C) Attacker
8.18
7
Yannick Agnero
Yannick Agnero
Attacker84'
6.4
77
Luis Palma
Luis Palma Attacker
8.44
24
Filip Jagiello
Filip Jagiello
Midfielder66'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Roberto Alves
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+3'
Event
Yannick Agnero
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Roberto Alves → Romário Baró
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Adam Żabicki → Christos Donis
10th Substitution
84'
84'
Event
Yannick Agnero → Mikael Ishak
8th Substitution
Event
Christos Donis
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
83'
78'
Event
Taofeek Ismaheel → Leo Bengtsson
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Radoslaw Murawski → Pablo Rodríguez
7th Substitution
69'
Event
Leo Bengtsson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Salifou Soumah → Elves Baldé
5th Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Filip Jagiello → Luis Palma
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Daniel Håkans → Patrik Wålemark
3rd Substitution
Event
João Pedro Reginaldo → Vasco Rafael Fortes Lopes
2nd Substitution
65'
58'
Event
Patrik Wålemark
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
54'
Event
Antoni Kozubal
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
22'
Event
Luis Palma
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
16'
Event
Mikael Ishak
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Maurides Roque Junior → Leândro
1st Substitution
12'
Event
Jan Grzesik
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
8'

Match Commentary

84
Update Update
Mel Yannick Joel Agnero comes on for Mikael Ishak.
84
Update Update
Roberto Alves is on, and Romario Baro is off.
84
Update Update
Adam Zabicki is on, and Christos Donis is off.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Christos Donis receives a yellow card.
82
Attempt Attempt
Salifou Soumah takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
78
Update Update
Taofeek Ismaheel comes on for Leo Bengtsson.
78
Update Update
Radoslaw Murawski replaces Juan Pablo Rodriguez Guerrero.
77
Update Update
Maurides Roque Junior attempts a header but misses the target.
70
Attempt Attempt
Luquinhas takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Juan Pablo Rodriguez Guerrero takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Salifou Soumah is on, and Elves Balde is off.
66
Substitution Substitution
Daniel Hakans is substituted for Patrik Walemark.
66
Update Update
Filip Jagiello comes on for Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera.
65
Update Update
Joan Pedro comes on for Vasco Miguel Lopes de Matos.
58
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a left-footed shot and scores.
50
Attempt Attempt
Leo Bengtsson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Steve Kingue's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Leo Bengtsson's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Romario Baro takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Elves Balde's right-footed shot is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Juan Pablo Rodriguez Guerrero takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Joel Pereira takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Luis Enrique Palma Oseguera takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
16
Update Update
Mikael Ishak scores with a header.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mikael Ishak scores, making it 1-1.
15
Attempt Attempt
Patrik Walemark takes a left-footed shot but misses.
14
Attempt Attempt
Leo Bengtsson takes a right-footed shot but misses.
11
Update Update
Maurides Roque Junior comes on for Leandro.
8
Attempt Attempt
Jan Grzesik scores with a right-footed shot.

CONCLUSION

The performance by Lech Poznań in securing a 3-1 away win against Radomiak Radom underscores their strength and resilience in the competition. Overcoming a halftime deficit of one goal, they managed to turn the game around effectively. Their efficiency on the counter and ability to maintain composure were key factors in the success. Radomiak, although dominant in possession, lacked the necessary cutting edge in attack to challenge the visitors sufficiently. With no disciplinary issues affecting the flow, the match was decided purely on tactical execution and individual brilliance from the winning side. Overall, this result positions Lech Poznań favorably moving forward while Radomiak will need to reflect on missed chances and defensive lapses that proved costly in the end.

Radomiak Radom vs Lech Poznań preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.