Racing Santander vs Almería Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain

Campos de Sport de El Sardinero Sun, 12 Apr - 7:00 PM

La Liga 2

Racing Santander RAC

Almería ALM

Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 7:00 PM

Round 35 Regular Season

Marco Sangalli - 88'

Peio Canales - 82'

Asier Villalibre - 79'

Iñigo Vicente - 28'

Andrés Martín - 21'

Adrián Embarba - 12'

Mario García 75'

Dion Lopy 45+5'

CONTEXT

The match between Racing Santander and Almería is now finished, ending 5-1 to the home side after a 2-1 half-time scoreline. Racing Santander, already regarded as the stronger team beforehand, delivered a comprehensive victory that showed only minimal deviation from pre-match expectations. With home probability rated extremely high in advance, the result aligned closely with that projection and produced an efficiency shift that stayed in line with anticipated patterns. Racing Santander held 57 percent possession to Almería’s 43 percent, dictating the flow for long periods. Both teams received a red card, creating noticeable second-half distortion that contributed to the lopsided final margin as Racing pulled clear. Although expected goals data was unavailable, the outcome proved consistent with the pre-match view that the home side would prevail, confirming their superiority on the day without any major upset. The result leaves no doubt about Racing Santander’s dominance once the numerical imbalances took effect, turning a promising position at the interval into a convincing full-time success.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Racing Santander showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

R. Sánchez López

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Mira García

1st Assistant

J. Hernández García

2nd Assistant

A. Clemente Ortuño

4th Official

J. López Menéndez

J. Ferrer Sicilia

1.77

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.84

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

6 - 6 - 5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Racing Santander

95.12%

Draw

3.7%

Almería

1.19%

Team Power Ranking

29.5

29.07

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Racing Santander

Almería

Power Score

29.5

29.07

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Racing Santander — Opponent-weighted form score

Almería — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Racing Santander Almería

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Racing Santander

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Almería

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Racing Santander ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Almería

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

49.74

28.02

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

28.02

49.74

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Racing Santander +2.21 Efficiency Index

Almería -2.21 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Racing Santander

Almería

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Racing Santander ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Almería

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Racing Santander Almería

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Racing Santander Almería

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Racing Santander

Almería

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Racing Santander

Almería

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Racing Santander Almería

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Racing Santander Almería

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Racing Santander

Almería

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

RAC had peak pressure around 71'.
RAC started the game with stronger pressure.

RAC Pressure ALM Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: RAC reached the top pressure at 71' (88.55).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Racing Santander RAC Home

17 matches

Almería ALM Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-1

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T02:02:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

13 Lars Eriksson

5 J. Castro Urdín

4 J. Hernando Riol

21 P. Ramón Parra

3 M. García Alvear

14 M. Gueye

19 G. Puerta Molano

11 A. Martín García

18 P. Canales Urtasun

10 I. Vicente Elorduy

7 G. Guliashvili

1 A. Fernández Moreno

3 A. Muñoz Miguel

18 F. Bonini

4 N. Macedo Monte

16 M. Ruiz

17 D. Lopy

14 I. Mohammed

10 N. Melamed Ribaudo

23 A. Embarba Blázquez

11 S. Arribas Calvo

24 M. De la Fuente Escudero

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 12, 2026, 07:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

Capacity :

22308

Attendance :

22128

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Rafael Sánchez López

Jesús Manuel Mira García

José Hernández García

Alejandro Clemente Ortuño

Statistics

Possession

RAC

56%

ALM

44%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 1

6 Big Chances Created 2

6 Shots 1

47 Dangerous attacks 41

57 Possession 43

8 Corners 1

13 Free kicks 15

4 Yellow Cards 2

1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

76 Ball Safe 75

2 Injuries 0

19 Goal Attempts 9

16 Dribble Attempts 20

56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55

8 Goal Kicks 6

14 Throwins 16

9 Successful Dribbles 11

1 Hit Woodwork 0

5 Assists 1

5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

82 Attacks 77

2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

442 Successful Passes 315

89 Successful Passes Percentage 84

17 Successful Long Passes 21

496 Passes 376

22 Key Passes 7

45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

38 Long Passes 50

Defensive

13 Tackles 19

11 Interceptions 8

2 Saves 8

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 1

15 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

3 Offsides 4

13 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Rafael Sánchez López

Manager ▼

J. López Menéndez Coach

Starting XI ▼

Simon Eriksson Goalkeeper

Mario García Defender

Manu Hernando Defender

Javi Castro Defender

Pablo Ramón Defender

Marco Sangalli

Attacker72'

Iñigo Vicente Midfielder

Suleiman Camara

Attacker80'

Andrés Martín Midfielder

Damián Rodríguez

Midfielder89'

Maguette Gueye Midfielder

Peio Canales Midfielder

Gustavo Puerta Midfielder

Íñigo Sainz-Maza

Midfielder89'

Giorgi Guliashvili Attacker

Asier Villalibre

Attacker72'

Substitutes ▼

Marco Sangalli

Attacker72'

Asier Villalibre

Attacker72'

Suleiman Camara

Attacker80'

Íñigo Sainz-Maza

Midfielder89'

Damián Rodríguez

Midfielder89'

Bench ▼

Jokin Ezkieta Goalkeeper

Facundo González Defender

Samuel Calera Defender

Aritz Aldasoro Midfielder

Diego Fuentes Midfielder

Juan Carlos Arana Attacker

Jaime Mata Attacker

Referee : Rafael Sánchez López