Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
MATRADE Loftus Road Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Queens Park Rangers QPR
2 Winner 3
Derby County DRB
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 45 Regular Season
Richard Kone - 55'
Harvey Vale - 13'
Goal
|
Goal
Jaydon Banel - 88'
Sondre Langås - 76'
Oscar Fraulo - 25'

CONTEXT

Queens Park Rangers suffered a 2-3 home defeat to Derby County in the Championship at Loftus Road. The first half ended level at 1-1, reflecting a balanced opening period. QPR controlled 56% of possession against Derby's 44%, yet struggled to create decisive chances. Derby, pre-identified as the stronger team, struck twice in the second half to claim victory. No red cards were issued, ensuring the match flowed without disciplinary interruptions. The outcome registered a significant 59% structural deviation favoring Derby County. Efficiency metrics remained in line with expectations for both sides. xG data is unavailable, limiting chance quality insights. Pre-match market assessments showed Derby at 41%, draw at 27.5%, and QPR at 31.5%, with the result aligning closely. Second-half play featured no notable adjustments or events.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Derby County's win reflected a significant 59% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market probabilities favoring Derby County.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Busby

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Russell

1st Assistant

J. Bickerdike

2nd Assistant

L. Smith

4th Official

Queens Park Rangers J. Stéphan
J. Stéphan
VS
Derby County J. Eustace
J. Eustace
1.21
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.67
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Swansea City Rank: L
Millwall Rank: L
Bristol City Rank: D
Preston North End Rank: D
Watford Rank: W
Portsmouth Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: L
Oxford United Rank: W
Southampton Rank: L
Stoke City Rank: W
Coventry City Rank: L
Birmingham City Rank: W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 8 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Queens Park Rangers
31.5%
Draw
27.46%
Away Derby County
41.04%

Movement

Changes since opening
Queens Park Rangers
+30.87%
Draw
+16.9%
Derby County
-47.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.69
24.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Queens Park Rangers
Derby County
Power Score
21.69
24.98
League Position
14
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Queens Park Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Derby County — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Queens Park Rangers Derby County

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Queens Park Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Derby County

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Queens Park Rangers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derby County
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
45.71
31.48
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.48
45.71
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Queens Park Rangers +1.45 Efficiency Index
vs
Derby County -1.45 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Queens Park Rangers
Derby County
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Queens Park Rangers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Derby County
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Queens Park Rangers Derby County
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Queens Park Rangers Derby County
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Queens Park Rangers
Derby County
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Queens Park Rangers
vs
Derby County
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Queens Park Rangers Derby County
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Queens Park Rangers 0.44
Derby County 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Queens Park Rangers Derby County
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Queens Park Rangers 0.08
Derby County 0.04
Queens Park Rangers
Derby County
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • QPR had peak pressure around 8'.
  • QPR started the game with stronger pressure.
QPR Pressure DRB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: QPR reached the top pressure at 8' (98.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 30 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Queens Park Rangers QPR Home
30 matches
Derby County DRB Away
Match Record
11
Wins
11
8
Draws
8
11
Losses
11
Goals
32
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
32
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:04:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
P. Nardi
France
1 P. Nardi
A. Mbengue
Substitution
Senegal
27 A. Mbengue
R. Edwards
England
37 R. Edwards
J. Clarke-Salter
England
6 J. Clarke-Salter
R. Norrington-Davies
Wales
18 R. Norrington-Davies
D. Bennie
Substitution
Australia
23 D. Bennie
K. Morgan
Substitution
England
21 K. Morgan
J. Varane
France
40 J. Varane
P. Smyth
Substitution
Northern Ireland
11 P. Smyth
H. Vale
England
20 H. Vale
R. Kone
Substitution
22 R. Kone
Pitch
J. Widell Zetterström
Sweden
1 J. Widell Zetterström
M. Johnston
Substitution
Scotland
22 M. Johnston
M. Clarke
England
5 M. Clarke
D. Sanderson
Substitution
England
28 D. Sanderson
S. Langås
Norway
6 S. Langås
O. Fraulo
Substitution
Denmark
29 O. Fraulo
L. Travis
Substitution
England
27 L. Travis
B. Brereton
Chile
25 B. Brereton
S. Szmodics
Substitution
England
19 S. Szmodics
J. Ward
England
23 J. Ward
C. Morris
England
9 C. Morris

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 45 · Regular Season
Stadium :
MATRADE Loftus Road
Capacity :
18500
Attendance :
17131
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
John Busby
Mark Russell
Johnathon Bickerdike
Lewis Smith

Statistics

Possession
QPR
56%
DRB
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
5 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 6
52 Dangerous attacks 37
56 Possession 44
10 Corners 6
8 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

9 Dribble Attempts 9
79 Ball Safe 93
2 Assists 3
19 Throwins 23
9 Goal Kicks 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0
11 Successful Headers 14
89 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
16 Goal Attempts 6
8 Successful Dribbles 3
5 Substitutions 5
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

5 Big Chances Missed 0
89 Attacks 79

Possession

366 Passes 296
79 Successful Passes Percentage 71
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
39 Successful Long Passes 28
288 Successful Passes 210
74 Long Passes 76
20 Key Passes 9

Defensive

0 Saves 10
40 Duels Won 45
13 Tackles 17
6 Interceptions 10

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 11
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

12 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : John Busby

Starting XI ▼

1
Paul Nardi
Paul Nardi Goalkeeper
6.6
6
Jake Clarke-Salter
Jake Clarke-Salter Defender
6.61
18
Rhys Norrington-Davies
Rhys Norrington-Davies Defender
5.21
27
Amadou Salif Mbengue
Amadou Salif Mbengue Defender
6.64
2
Kealey Adamson
Kealey Adamson
Defender46'
6.44
37
Ronnie Edwards
Ronnie Edwards Defender
6.6
11
Paul Patrick Smyth
Paul Patrick Smyth Midfielder
6.79
14
Koki Saito
Koki Saito
Attacker79'
6.6
21
Kieran Morgan
Kieran Morgan Midfielder
6.56
24
Nicolas Madsen
Nicolas Madsen
Midfielder62'
7.13
23
Daniel Bennie
Daniel Bennie Midfielder
6.56
16
R. Burrell
R. Burrell
Attacker62'
6.81
40
Jonathan Varane
Jonathan Varane Midfielder
6.77
20
Harvey Vale
Harvey Vale Attacker
6.89
22
Richard Kone
Richard Kone Attacker
6.81
10
Ilias Chair
Ilias Chair
Midfielder68'
7.21
Referee : John Busby

Starting XI ▼

1
Jacob Widell Zetterström
Jacob Widell Zetterström Goalkeeper
6.87
5
Matt Clarke
Matt Clarke Defender
7.04
6
Sondre Langås
Sondre Langås Defender
6.83
22
Max Johnston
Max Johnston Defender
6.69
34
Jaydon Banel
Jaydon Banel
Midfielder61'
6.6
28
Dion Sanderson
Dion Sanderson Defender
6.67
3
Craig Forsyth
Craig Forsyth
Defender61'
6.67
19
Sammie Szmodics
Sammie Szmodics Midfielder
6.83
4
Danny Batth
Danny Batth
Defender90+1'
6.71
23
Joe Ward
Joe Ward Midfielder
7
25
Ben Brereton Díaz
Ben Brereton Díaz Midfielder
6.73
27
Lewis Travis
Lewis Travis Midfielder
6.98
15
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
Attacker75'
6.62
29
Oscar Fraulo
Oscar Fraulo Midfielder
6.6
18
David Ozoh
David Ozoh
Midfielder62'
6.6
9
Carlton Morris
Carlton Morris Attacker
7.07

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Danny Batth → Sammie Szmodics
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Jaydon Banel
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
81'
Event
Ben Brereton Díaz
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Koki Saito → Paul Patrick Smyth
9th Substitution
79'
76'
Event
Sondre Langås
Header / 4th Goal
75'
Event
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen → Lewis Travis
8th Substitution
Event
R. Burrell
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Ilias Chair → Richard Kone
7th Substitution
68'
63'
Event
Sondre Langås
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Nicolas Madsen → Kieran Morgan
5th Substitution
62'
Event
R. Burrell → Daniel Bennie
4th Substitution
62'
62'
Event
David Ozoh → Oscar Fraulo
6th Substitution
61'
Event
Jaydon Banel → Max Johnston
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Craig Forsyth → Dion Sanderson
3rd Substitution
Event
Richard Kone
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
55'
54'
Event
Sammie Szmodics
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Kealey Adamson → Amadou Salif Mbengue
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
25'
Event
Oscar Fraulo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Harvey Vale
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Jaydon Banel from Derby County misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Queens Park Rangers losing 2-3 to Derby County.
90
Update Update
Craig Forsyth from Derby County is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 10 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Sondre Langås from Derby County is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Rhys Norrington-Davies of Queens Park Rangers.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Danny Batth comes on for Sam Szmodics due to an injury.
90
Update Update
Koki Saito from Queens Park Rangers wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul by Kealey Adamson of Queens Park Rangers.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Matt Clarke of Derby County.
90
Corner Corner
Derby County wins a corner after Ronnie Edwards concedes.
90
Corner Corner
Queens Park Rangers win a corner after Craig Forsyth concedes.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ilias Chair from Queens Park Rangers misses a right-footed shot from outside the box to the right, assisted by Jake Clarke-Salter's headed pass.
89
Update Update
Sam Szmodics from Derby County is caught offside.
88
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Derby County takes the lead 3-2 with Jaydon Banel scoring from the left side of the box with a right-footed shot into the bottom right corner, assisted by Matt Clarke's header.
85
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Rumarn Burrell of Queens Park Rangers.
84
Update Update
Foul by Ilias Chair of Queens Park Rangers.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Ilias Chair of Queens Park Rangers.
84
Update Update
Matt Clarke from Derby County misses an attempt with a header from the left side of the six-yard box, sending it just a bit too high. He was assisted by Joe Ward after a set piece situation.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben Brereton of Derby County.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ben Brereton of Derby County receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
81
Update Update
Koki Saito from Queens Park Rangers wins a free kick on the left wing.
80
Update Update
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen of Derby County misses a header from the center of the box, directed to the left. Joe Ward provided the assist.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Koki Saito comes on for Paul Smyth due to an injury.
78
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Paul Smyth of Queens Park Rangers.
77
Update Update
Foul by Joe Ward of Derby County.
77
Update Update
Paul Smyth of Queens Park Rangers is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
77
Attempt Attempt
Carlton Morris from Derby County has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is blocked.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sondre Langås scores for Derby County with a header from close range to the center of the goal, assisted by Joe Ward's cross from a set piece. The match is now 2-2.
75
Update Update
Foul committed by Kealey Adamson of Queens Park Rangers.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen comes on for Lewis Travis.
75
Update Update
Carlton Morris from Derby County wins a free kick on the right wing.
74
Corner Corner
Derby County wins a corner after Kealey Adamson concedes.
74
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Harvey Vale from Queens Park Rangers has his left-footed shot from the right side of the box saved.
73
Corner Corner
Queens Park Rangers win a corner after Sondre Langås concedes.
72
Update Update
Offside called against Queens Park Rangers. Rumarn Burrell is caught offside.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rumarn Burrell of Queens Park Rangers receives a yellow card for a foul.
70
Update Update
Matt Clarke from Derby County wins a free kick in the defensive half.
70
Attempt Attempt
David Ozoh from Derby County misses a left-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the right. Matt Clarke provided the assist.
70
Update Update
Foul committed by Rumarn Burrell of Queens Park Rangers.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Ilias Chair comes on for Richard Kone due to an injury.
67
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Richard Kone of Queens Park Rangers.
64
Attempt Attempt
Paul Smyth's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Jacob Widell Zetterström. The attempt was assisted by Rhys Norrington-Davies.
64
Update Update
Ronnie Edwards from Queens Park Rangers misses an attempt with a header from the center of the box, sending it too high. The chance was assisted by Harvey Vale after a set piece situation.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: David Ozoh comes on for Oscar Fraulo.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by Sondre Langås of Derby County.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sondre Langås from Derby County receives a yellow card for a foul.
63
Update Update
Paul Smyth from Queens Park Rangers wins a free kick on the left wing.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sondre Langås of Derby County receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Rumarn Burrell comes on for Daniel Bennie.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Jaydon Banel comes on for Max Johnston.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Nicolas Madsen comes on for Kieran Morgan.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Craig Forsyth comes on for Dion Sanderson.
61
Update Update
Offside called against Queens Park Rangers. Richard Kone is the player caught offside.
60
Corner Corner
Queens Park Rangers win a corner after Joe Ward concedes.
60
Attempt Attempt
Richard Kone's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Jacob Widell Zetterström in the center of the goal. The attempt was assisted by Harvey Vale.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Jacob Widell Zetterström concedes.
59
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Bennie's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Paul Smyth.
58
Update Update
Foul committed by Sondre Langås of Derby County.
58
Update Update
Rhys Norrington-Davies of Queens Park Rangers wins a free kick in the defensive half.
58
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Paul Smyth from Queens Park Rangers has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Jacob Widell Zetterström from Derby County saves it in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Richard Kone.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Richard Kone scores for Queens Park Rangers with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Harvey Vale. The score is now 2-1 in favor of Queens Park Rangers.
54
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sam Szmodics from Derby County receives a yellow card for a foul.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Sam Szmodics of Derby County.
53
Corner Corner
Derby County win a corner after Jake Clarke-Salter concedes.
53
Update Update
Matt Clarke's header from the center of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Joe Ward.
53
Update Update
Jonathan Varane of Queens Park Rangers wins a free kick in the defensive half.
52
Update Update
Joe Ward from Derby County wins a free kick on the right wing.
52
Update Update
Foul committed by Paul Smyth of Queens Park Rangers.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by Richard Kone of Queens Park Rangers.
51
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County wins a free kick on the right wing.
49
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County wins a free kick in the defensive half.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by Richard Kone of Queens Park Rangers.
49
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Vale's right-footed shot from the center of the box for Queens Park Rangers is blocked. Daniel Bennie provided the assist.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Oscar Fraulo of Derby County.
48
Update Update
Jonathan Varane from Queens Park Rangers wins a free kick in the defensive half.
46
Corner Corner
Derby County wins a corner after Ronnie Edwards concedes.
46
Attempt Attempt
Max Johnston's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Oscar Fraulo provided the assist.
45
Corner Corner
Queens Park Rangers win a corner, conceded by Jacob Widell Zetterström.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with the score tied at 1-1 between Queens Park Rangers and Derby County.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Kieran Morgan of Queens Park Rangers.
45
Corner Corner
Derby County wins a corner after Ronnie Edwards concedes.
45
Update Update
Jacob Widell Zetterström of Derby County wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Corner Corner
Harvey Vale of Queens Park Rangers has his left-footed shot from outside the box saved in the bottom right corner by Jacob Widell Zetterström of Derby County, with an assist from Daniel Bennie.
45
Update Update
The second half begins after the match finishes 1-1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Kealey Adamson comes on for Amadou Mbengue.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Kieran Morgan of Queens Park Rangers.
43
Update Update
Joe Ward from Derby County wins a free kick in the attacking half.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Dion Sanderson concedes.
41
Attempt Attempt
Kieran Morgan's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Richard Kone.
41
Attempt Attempt
Richard Kone's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. He was assisted by Rhys Norrington-Davies, who provided the cross.
40
Attempt Attempt
Paul Smyth's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Jacob Widell Zetterström. The attempt was assisted by Rhys Norrington-Davies.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after a concession by Matt Clarke.
38
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Bennie's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Richard Kone.
36
Update Update
Dion Sanderson from Derby County wins a free kick in the defensive half.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Richard Kone of Queens Park Rangers.
34
Corner Corner
Jonathan Varane's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the top right corner by Jacob Widell Zetterström. The attempt was assisted by Paul Smyth.
32
Corner Corner
Queens Park Rangers win a corner after Lewis Travis concedes.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Jacob Widell Zetterström concedes.
31
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Paul Smyth from Queens Park Rangers has a right-footed shot from outside the box that is saved in the bottom left corner by Jacob Widell Zetterström from Derby County, assisted by Kieran Morgan.
27
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Vale's left-footed shot from outside the box for Queens Park Rangers is blocked.
26
Update Update
Foul committed by Matt Clarke of Derby County.
26
Update Update
Jonathan Varane from Queens Park Rangers wins a free kick in the attacking half.
25
Corner Corner
Max Johnston from Derby County has attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it misses to the left after a corner.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Oscar Fraulo scores for Derby County with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Max Johnston after a corner.
24
Corner Corner
Derby County wins a corner after Amadou Mbengue concedes.
18
Update Update
Joe Ward from Derby County wins a free kick in the attacking half.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Richard Kone of Queens Park Rangers.
16
Attempt Attempt
Kieran Morgan from Queens Park Rangers misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high. Jonathan Varane provided the assist.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Queens Park Rangers lead 1-0 against Derby County. Harvey Vale scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Daniel Bennie.
12
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Sam Szmodics of Derby County.
11
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Amadou Mbengue of Queens Park Rangers.
10
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Paul Smyth from Queens Park Rangers has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Jacob Widell Zetterström from Derby County saves it in the center of the goal. The shot was assisted by Richard Kone.
9
Corner Corner
Queens Park Rangers win a corner after Matt Clarke concedes.
9
Attempt Attempt
Amadou Mbengue's long-range right-footed shot for Queens Park Rangers is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Rhys Norrington-Davies.
5
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Vale from Queens Park Rangers hits the right post with a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box.
5
Attempt Attempt
Richard Kone's right-footed shot from close range is saved in the center of the goal by Jacob Widell Zetterström. The attempt was assisted by Daniel Bennie.

CONCLUSION

Derby County's 2-3 victory over Queens Park Rangers validated their stronger pre-match standing, overcoming lower possession through superior finishing. QPR's 56% ball share yielded only two goals, exposing conversion inefficiencies post-halftime. The 59% structural deviation highlights Derby's overperformance against expectations. Market alignment confirms the result matched probabilistic forecasts. Absent red cards and events preserved a pure contest of quality. With xG pending, raw stats indicate Derby maximized limited opportunities effectively. QPR must address defensive lapses, while Derby gains crucial points in their campaign. This outcome reinforces Derby's competitive edge in the division.

Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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