PSV vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Philips Stadion Thu, 23 Apr - 7:00 PM
Eredivisie
PSV PSV
6 Winner 1
PEC Zwolle PEC
Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Esmir Bajraktarevic - 82', 73'
Couhaib Driouech - 79'
Simon Graves - 72' (Own Goal)
Ricardo Pepi - 57', 8'
Goal
|
Goal
Zico Buurmeester - 51'

CONTEXT

PSV Eindhoven produced a dominant display to defeat PEC Zwolle 6-1 in a one-sided Eredivisie encounter. The hosts edged ahead 1-0 at halftime, thanks to a clinical finish amid growing pressure. The second half erupted into a goal fest as PSV added five more strikes, overwhelming Zwolle's defense with pace, precision, and relentless attacking waves. Possession told the story at 67% for PSV against 33% for the visitors, underlining their control and superiority. Zwolle mustered a late consolation goal but offered little resistance overall. No red cards disrupted proceedings, allowing PSV's superior quality to shine through unhindered. As the pre-designated stronger team, PSV's performance delivered a significant 28.1% structural deviation in their favor, affirming their status as league frontrunners.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: PSV's 6-1 win exhibited a significant 28.1% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true for the final outcome.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout ties influenced the result.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Nagtegaal

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Diks

1st Assistant

F. Overtoom

2nd Assistant

N. Boel

4th Official

PSV P. Bosz
P. Bosz
VS
PEC Zwolle Henry van der Vegt
Henry van der Vegt
2.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.24
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: W
FC Utrecht Rank: W
Telstar Rank: L
NEC Nijmegen Rank: L
AZ Rank: W
Heracles Almelo Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Excelsior Rank: D
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: L
NAC Breda Rank: W
FC Groningen Rank: D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: D
Ajax Rank: D
21
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
21 - 1 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home PSV
71.91%
Draw
15.33%
Away PEC Zwolle
12.76%

Movement

Changes since opening
PSV
-23.48%
Draw
+11.66%
PEC Zwolle
+11.82%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
38.92
20.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
PSV
PEC Zwolle
Power Score
38.92
20.48
League Position
1
13
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
PSV — Opponent-weighted form score
PEC Zwolle — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) PSV PEC Zwolle

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

PSV

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

PEC Zwolle

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

PSV ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy PEC Zwolle
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.07
21.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.52
30.07
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
PSV +0.90 Efficiency Index
vs
PEC Zwolle -0.90 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
PSV
PEC Zwolle
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

PSV ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy PEC Zwolle
Created Set-piece attacking threat
PSV PEC Zwolle
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
PSV PEC Zwolle
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
PSV
PEC Zwolle
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
PSV
vs
PEC Zwolle
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
PSV PEC Zwolle
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
PSV 0.27
PEC Zwolle 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
PSV PEC Zwolle
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
PSV 0.05
PEC Zwolle 0.10
PSV
PEC Zwolle
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PEC had peak pressure around 53'.
  • PSV started the game with stronger pressure.
PSV Pressure PEC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PEC reached the top pressure at 53' (78.76).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

PSV PSV Home
25 matches
PEC Zwolle PEC Away
Match Record
21
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
21
Goals
77
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
77
+53
Goal Difference
-53

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:02:44+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Olij
Netherlands
1 N. Olij
K. Sildillia
France
25 K. Sildillia
R. Flamingo
Netherlands
6 R. Flamingo
Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
Spain
3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
M. Ferreira dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
J. van den Berg
Netherlands
35 J. van den Berg
J. Veerman
Substitution
Netherlands
23 J. Veerman
E. Bajraktarevic
United States
19 E. Bajraktarevic
G. Til
Substitution
Netherlands
20 G. Til
C. Driouech
Morocco
11 C. Driouech
R. Pepi
Substitution
9 R. Pepi
Pitch
T. de Graaff
Netherlands
16 T. de Graaff
S. Floranus
Curaçao
2 S. Floranus
A. McNulty
Republic of Ireland
4 A. McNulty
S. Graves Jensen
Denmark
28 S. Graves Jensen
O. Aertssen
Substitution
Netherlands
3 O. Aertssen
Z. Buurmeester
Netherlands
8 Z. Buurmeester
R. Thomas
Substitution
New Zealand
30 R. Thomas
K. de Rooij
Substitution
Netherlands
22 K. de Rooij
T. Oosting
Netherlands
25 T. Oosting
O. Velanas
Netherlands
18 O. Velanas
K. Kostons
Netherlands
10 K. Kostons

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 23, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Philips Stadion
Capacity :
36500
Attendance :
31200
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mario Diks
Franca Overtoom
Marc Nagtegaal
Niels Boel

Statistics

Possession
PSV
65%
PEC
35%

Top Statistics

6 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
17 Shots 6
63 Dangerous attacks 22
67 Possession 33
4 Corners 4
4 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
22 Throwins 10
2 Goal Kicks 5
4 Assists 0
13 Successful Dribbles 6
26 Dribble Attempts 15
5 Successful Headers 4
65 Ball Safe 65
12 Goal Attempts 4
4 Substitutions 3
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

132 Attacks 64
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

90 Successful Passes Percentage 80
633 Successful Passes 273
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
700 Passes 340
43 Long Passes 45
25 Successful Long Passes 15
11 Key Passes 5

Defensive

8 Interceptions 10
3 Saves 5
16 Tackles 21
38 Duels Won 41

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 7
4 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
10 Fouls 4

Lineup

Referee : Marc Nagtegaal

Starting XI ▼

1
Nick Olij
Nick Olij Goalkeeper
7.13
3
Yarek Gasiorowski
Yarek Gasiorowski Defender
6.91
6
Ryan Flamingo
Ryan Flamingo Defender
6.78
17
Mauro Júnior
Mauro Júnior Defender
7.25
52
Jordy Bawuah
Jordy Bawuah
Midfielder80'
6.77
25
Kiliann Sildillia
Kiliann Sildillia Defender
6.75
11
Couhaib Driouech
Couhaib Driouech Midfielder
6.75
19
Esmir Bajraktarevic
Esmir Bajraktarevic Midfielder
2
6.87
20
Guus Til
Guus Til Midfielder
7.2
56
Jim Koller
Jim Koller
Midfielder81'
6.58
23
Joey Veerman
Joey Veerman Midfielder
7.97
5
Ivan Perišić
Ivan Perišić
Attacker69'
7.3
35
Joël van den Berg
Joël van den Berg Midfielder
6.67
9
Ricardo Pepi
Ricardo Pepi Attacker
2
7.13
21
Myron Boadu
Myron Boadu
Attacker81'
6.68
Referee : Marc Nagtegaal

Starting XI ▼

16
Tom de Graaff
Tom de Graaff Goalkeeper
6.92
2
Sherel Floranus
Sherel Floranus Defender
6.61
3
Olivier Aertssen
Olivier Aertssen Defender
6.56
5
Tijs Velthuis
Tijs Velthuis
Defender83'
6.48
4
Anselmo García MacNulty
Anselmo García MacNulty Defender
6.69
28
Simon Graves
Simon Graves Defender
6.83
8
Zico Buurmeester
Zico Buurmeester Midfielder
6.36
18
Odysseus Velanas
Odysseus Velanas Midfielder
6.85
22
Kaj de Rooij
Kaj de Rooij Midfielder
6.82
29
Thomas Buitink
Thomas Buitink
Attacker83'
6.47
25
Thijs Oosting
Thijs Oosting Midfielder
6.81
30
Ryan Thomas
Ryan Thomas Midfielder
6.93
6
Tristan Gooijer
Tristan Gooijer
Defender70'
6.55
10
Koen Kostons
Koen Kostons Attacker
7.02

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ivan Perišić
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
89'
83'
Event
Thomas Buitink → Kaj de Rooij
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Tijs Velthuis → Olivier Aertssen
7th Substitution
Event
Esmir Bajraktarevic
Left foot shot / 6th Goal
82'
Event
Jim Koller → Guus Til
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Myron Boadu → Ricardo Pepi
4th Substitution
81'
Event
Jordy Bawuah → Mauro Júnior
3rd Substitution
80'
Event
Couhaib Driouech
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
79'
Event
Esmir Bajraktarevic
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
73'
Event
Simon Graves
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
72'
70'
Event
Tristan Gooijer → Ryan Thomas
2nd Substitution
Event
Ivan Perišić → Joey Veerman
1st Substitution
69'
Event
Ricardo Pepi
Header / 3rd Goal
57'
51'
Event
Zico Buurmeester
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Anselmo García MacNulty
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ricardo Pepi
Header / 1st Goal
8'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Foul committed by Kiliann Sildillia of PSV Eindhoven.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
90
Update Update
Thomas Buitink of PEC Zwolle wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with PSV Eindhoven winning 6-1 against PEC Zwolle.
89
Update Update
Foul by Ivan Perisic of PSV Eindhoven.
89
Update Update
Thijs Oosting from PEC Zwolle wins a free kick in the defensive half.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ivan Perisic from PSV Eindhoven receives a yellow card for a foul.
87
Update Update
Tristan Gooijer from PEC Zwolle wins a free kick on the right wing.
87
Update Update
Foul by Ivan Perisic of PSV Eindhoven.
86
Update Update
Tristan Gooijer of PEC Zwolle is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
86
Attempt Attempt
Jordy Bawuah from PSV Eindhoven has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the center of the goal by Tom de Graaff from PEC Zwolle.
84
Update Update
Zico Buurmeester from PEC Zwolle wins a free kick in the defensive half.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Jim Koller of PSV Eindhoven.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PEC Zwolle: Tijs Velthuis comes on for Olivier Aertssen.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PEC Zwolle: Thomas Buitink comes on for Kaj de Rooij.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Esmir Bajraktarevic scores for PSV Eindhoven with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the high center of the goal, assisted by Couhaib Driouech. The score is now 6-1.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PSV Eindhoven: Jim Koller comes on for Guus Til.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PSV Eindhoven: Jordy Bawuah comes on for Mauro Júnior.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PSV Eindhoven: Myron Boadu comes on for Ricardo Pepi.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Kaj de Rooij of PEC Zwolle.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Couhaib Driouech scores for PSV Eindhoven with a left-footed shot from very close range into the bottom left corner. The match score is now 5-1.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Couhaib Driouech scores for PSV Eindhoven with a left-footed shot from very close range. The match score is now 5-1.
75
Update Update
Koen Kostons from PEC Zwolle wins a free kick in the attacking half.
75
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Flamingo of PSV Eindhoven.
73
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Esmir Bajraktarevic scores for PSV Eindhoven with a left-footed shot from outside the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Guus Til. The match score is now PSV Eindhoven 4, PEC Zwolle 1.
72
Update Update
Own goal by Simon Graves gives PSV Eindhoven a 3-1 lead over PEC Zwolle.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PEC Zwolle: Tristan Gooijer comes on for Ryan Thomas.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PSV Eindhoven: Ivan Perisic comes on for Joey Veerman.
67
Attempt Attempt
Joël van den Berg from PSV Eindhoven has his right-footed shot from outside the box saved in the top center of the goal by Tom de Graaff from PEC Zwolle, with an assist from Esmir Bajraktarevic.
67
Attempt Attempt
Ricardo Pepi's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Esmir Bajraktarevic from PSV Eindhoven has a left-footed shot from the right side of the box that goes close but misses to the left. Guus Til provided the assist.
63
Corner Corner
PEC Zwolle wins a corner after Ryan Flamingo concedes.
63
Attempt Attempt
Thijs Oosting's left-footed shot from outside the box for PEC Zwolle is blocked.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PEC Zwolle after a concession by Yarek Gasiorowski.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ricardo Pepi scores for PSV Eindhoven with a header from the center of the box. The match score is now 2-1 in favor of PSV Eindhoven.
56
Attempt Attempt
Joël van den Berg's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Couhaib Driouech.
56
Corner Corner
PSV Eindhoven wins a corner after Ryan Thomas concedes.
53
Corner Corner
Odysseus Velanas from PEC Zwolle has his right-footed shot from the right side of the box saved in the bottom left corner by Nick Olij from PSV Eindhoven. The attempt was assisted by Kaj de Rooij.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Zico Buurmeester scores for PEC Zwolle with a left-footed shot from outside the box after a fast break. The match is now 1-1.
51
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Zico Buurmeester scores for PEC Zwolle with a left-footed shot from outside the box into the bottom right corner. The match is now 1-1.
50
Update Update
Kaj de Rooij from PEC Zwolle wins a free kick in the defensive half.
50
Update Update
Kaj de Rooij from PEC Zwolle is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
48
Update Update
Offside against PSV Eindhoven. Ricardo Pepi is caught in an offside position.
45
Update Update
First half ends with PSV Eindhoven leading 1-0 against PEC Zwolle.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be no added time.
45
Update Update
Anselmo MacNulty from PEC Zwolle wins a free kick in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Yarek Gasiorowski of PSV Eindhoven.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at 1-0 in favor of PSV Eindhoven.
44
Corner Corner
PSV Eindhoven wins a corner after Ryan Thomas concedes.
43
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Ricardo Pepi's header from the center of the box is saved.
41
Update Update
Guus Til from PSV Eindhoven wins a free kick in the defensive half.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Anselmo MacNulty of PEC Zwolle receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Anselmo MacNulty of PEC Zwolle.
40
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Kaj de Rooij from PEC Zwolle.
39
Attempt Attempt
Kaj de Rooij's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Olivier Aertssen.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Guus Til of PSV Eindhoven.
38
Update Update
Kaj de Rooij from PEC Zwolle is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PEC Zwolle after being conceded by Yarek Gasiorowski.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PEC Zwolle after Esmir Bajraktarevic concedes.
34
Attempt Attempt
Joey Veerman's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
34
Attempt Attempt
Joey Veerman's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Thomas of PEC Zwolle.
33
Update Update
Esmir Bajraktarevic from PSV Eindhoven wins a free kick in the attacking half.
33
Update Update
Foul by Ryan Thomas of PEC Zwolle.
30
Corner Corner
PSV Eindhoven win a corner after Sherel Floranus concedes.
25
Update Update
Foul committed by Guus Til of PSV Eindhoven.
25
Update Update
Kaj de Rooij from PEC Zwolle wins a free kick in the defensive half.
24
Update Update
Foul by Couhaib Driouech of PSV Eindhoven.
24
Update Update
Thijs Oosting from PEC Zwolle wins a free kick in the defensive half.
22
Corner Corner
PSV Eindhoven wins a corner after Ryan Thomas concedes.
20
Attempt Attempt
Mauro Júnior's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved.
18
Update Update
Ricardo Pepi from PSV Eindhoven wins a free kick on the left wing.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Thomas of PEC Zwolle.
13
Attempt Attempt
Olivier Aertssen's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved.
8
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! PSV Eindhoven leads PEC Zwolle 1-0. Ricardo Pepi scores for PSV Eindhoven with a header from the center of the box.
6
Corner Corner
Couhaib Driouech from PSV Eindhoven has his right-footed shot from the left side of the box saved in the bottom right corner by Tom de Graaff from PEC Zwolle, with an assist from Joël van den Berg.
3
Update Update
Offside for PSV Eindhoven. Ricardo Pepi is caught offside.

CONCLUSION

PSV's emphatic 6-1 victory over PEC Zwolle cements their attacking dominance and defensive resilience. Trailing only by 1-0 at halftime, they transformed the game with a five-goal second-half salvo, capitalizing on 67% possession to dismantle the visitors. Zwolle's lone reply highlighted their struggle against PSV's intensity. Free of red card interruptions, the match showcased pure team superiority, with a notable 28.1% structural deviation underscoring the result's decisiveness. This performance boosts PSV's momentum, signaling serious intent in the title race.

PSV vs PEC Zwolle preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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