PSV vs FC Twente Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Philips Stadion Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
PSV PSV
5 Winner 1
FC Twente TWE
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Ricardo Pepi - 84' (P)
Guus Til - 56'
Dennis Man - 53'
Ryan Flamingo - 15'
Goal
|
Goal
Sondre Ørjasæter - 16'

CONTEXT

PSV delivered a dominant performance against FC Twente, finishing with a 5-1 scoreline in their favor. Starting strongly, they led 2-1 at the halftime break before pulling away decisively after the interval. Despite a balanced possession statistic of 52 to 48 percent, the home side created superior scoring opportunities throughout the contest. Their expected goals figure reached 2.22, outpacing the visitors' 1.69, which underscored the quality of their attacking play. As the pre-designated stronger team, PSV maintained control and avoided any disciplinary issues with zero red cards shown to either side. The match unfolded without major disruptions, allowing the better team to assert their superiority from start to finish. This victory reinforces PSV's position in the standings as they continue their strong campaign.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: PSV recorded a significant deviation of 56.7 percent from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall match dynamics.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with the expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned with market projections for the stronger side.
  • xG expectations: PSV posted 2.22 expected goals while FC Twente had 1.69.
  • Event impact: Key scoring events propelled PSV to the 5-1 final result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred and thus created no match distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Manschot

Netherlands 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Bluemink

1st Assistant

Netherlands

R. Honig

2nd Assistant

Netherlands

A. Bos

4th Official

Netherlands

League averages

Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.58
Yellow cards / match 2.67
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.12
PSV P. Bosz
P. Bosz
VS
FC Twente J. van den Brom
J. van den Brom
2.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 67 W
Ajax Rank: 76 D
PEC Zwolle Rank: 62 W
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 64 W
FC Utrecht Rank: 72 W
Telstar Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 66 W
AZ Rank: 76 D
NEC Nijmegen Rank: 74 D
FC Volendam Rank: 59 W
Ajax Rank: 75 W
Fortuna Sittard Rank: 61 W
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 15 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home PSV
43.33%
Draw
22.58%
Away FC Twente
34.09%

Movement

Changes since opening
PSV
-54.27%
Draw
+20.67%
FC Twente
+33.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.55
75.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
PSV
FC Twente
Power Score
86.55
75.97
League Position
1
4
Global Rank
24
97

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
PSV — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Twente — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) PSV FC Twente

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

PSV

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Twente

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

PSV ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Twente
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.04
41.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
41.46
29.04
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
PSV -1.20 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Twente +1.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
PSV
FC Twente
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

PSV
vs
FC Twente
Created Set-piece attacking threat
PSV FC Twente
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
PSV FC Twente
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
PSV
FC Twente
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
PSV
vs
FC Twente
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
PSV FC Twente
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
PSV 0.31
FC Twente 0.47
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
PSV FC Twente
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
PSV 0.03
FC Twente 0.12
PSV
FC Twente
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TWE had peak pressure around 43'.
  • TWE started the game with stronger pressure.
PSV Pressure TWE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TWE reached the top pressure at 43' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

PSV PSV Home
39 matches
FC Twente TWE Away
Match Record
18
Wins
6
15
Draws
15
6
Losses
18
Goals
77
Goals Scored
46
46
Goals Conceded
77
+31
Goal Difference
-31

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:01:42+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Kovář
Czech Republic
32 M. Kovář
K. Sildillia
Substitution
France
25 K. Sildillia
R. Flamingo
Netherlands
6 R. Flamingo
Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
Spain
3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
S. Dest
United States
8 S. Dest
P. Wanner
Austria
10 P. Wanner
N. Fernandez
Substitution
31 N. Fernandez
D. Man
Substitution
Romania
27 D. Man
G. Til
Substitution
Netherlands
20 G. Til
I. Perišić
Substitution
Croatia
5 (C) I. Perišić
R. Pepi
9 R. Pepi
Pitch
P. Tytoń
Poland
22 P. Tytoń
M. Rots
Netherlands
39 M. Rots
R. Nijstad
Substitution
Netherlands
43 R. Nijstad
S. Lemkin
Israel
23 S. Lemkin
B. van Rooij
Netherlands
28 (C) B. van Rooij
D. Weidmann
Substitution
France
42 D. Weidmann
R. Zerrouki
Substitution
Algeria
6 R. Zerrouki
S. Ørjasæter
Substitution
Norway
27 S. Ørjasæter
K. Hlynsson
Substitution
Iceland
14 K. Hlynsson
D. Rots
Netherlands
11 D. Rots
S. Lammers
Netherlands
10 S. Lammers

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Philips Stadion
Capacity :
36500
Attendance :
35400
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Rens Bluemink
Rogier Honig
Jeroen Manschot
Alex Bos

Statistics

Possession
PSV
52%
TWE
48%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 5
42 Dangerous attacks 38
52 Possession 48
11 Corners 9
4 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
23 Dribble Attempts 8
21 Throwins 20
65 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38
12 Goal Kicks 7
15 Successful Dribbles 3
20 Successful Headers 14
4 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
70 Ball Safe 83
11 Goal Attempts 13

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 2
96 Attacks 83

Possession

385 Passes 355
29 Successful Long Passes 35
67 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
311 Successful Passes 269
81 Successful Passes Percentage 76
43 Long Passes 67
11 Key Passes 13

Defensive

5 Saves 3
7 Tackles 14
10 Interceptions 15
46 Duels Won 38

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 21
4 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
7 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Jeroen Manschot

Starting XI ▼

32
Matej Kovar
Matej Kovar Goalkeeper
7.78
3
Yarek Gasiorowski
Yarek Gasiorowski Defender
7.24
6
Ryan Flamingo
Ryan Flamingo Defender
7.43
8
Sergiño Dest
Sergiño Dest Defender
6.91
25
Kiliann Sildillia
Kiliann Sildillia Defender
6.79
2
Anass Salah-Eddine
Anass Salah-Eddine
Defender46'
6.87
5
Ivan Perišić
Ivan Perišić (C) Midfielder
7.82
11
Couhaib Driouech
Couhaib Driouech
Attacker71'
6.37
10
Paul Wanner
Paul Wanner Midfielder
7.46
20
Guus Til
Guus Til Midfielder
7.06
23
Joey Veerman
Joey Veerman
Midfielder71'
6.63
27
Dennis Man
Dennis Man Midfielder
7.42
21
Myron Boadu
Myron Boadu
Attacker77'
6.5
31
Noah Fernandez
Noah Fernandez Midfielder
7.5
34
Ismael Saibari
Ismael Saibari
Midfielder71'
7.17
9
Ricardo Pepi
Ricardo Pepi Attacker
7.26
Referee : Jeroen Manschot

Starting XI ▼

22
Przemyslaw Tyton
Przemyslaw Tyton Goalkeeper
5.77
23
Stav Lemkin
Stav Lemkin Defender
5.85
28
Bart van Rooij
Bart van Rooij (C) Defender
6.7
39
Mats Rots
Mats Rots Defender
6.27
43
Ruud Nijstad
Ruud Nijstad Defender
6.05
7
Marko Pjaca
Marko Pjaca
Attacker88'
6
Ramiz Zerrouki
Ramiz Zerrouki Midfielder
6.5
9
Ricky van Wolfswinkel
Ricky van Wolfswinkel
Attacker73'
6.42
11
Daan Rots
Daan Rots Midfielder
6.15
14
Kristian Hlynsson
Kristian Hlynsson Midfielder
6.15
3
Robin Pröpper
Robin Pröpper
Defender88'
27
Sondre Ørjasæter
Sondre Ørjasæter Midfielder
7.29
32
Arno Verschueren
Arno Verschueren
Midfielder73'
6.44
42
Daouda Weidmann
Daouda Weidmann Midfielder
6.64
4
Mathias Kjølø
Mathias Kjølø
Midfielder63'
6.43
10
Sam Lammers
Sam Lammers Attacker
6.56

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Robin Pröpper → Kristian Hlynsson
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Marko Pjaca → Ruud Nijstad
9th Substitution
Event
Ricardo Pepi
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
84'
Event
Myron Boadu → Dennis Man
8th Substitution
77'
73'
Event
Arno Verschueren → Sondre Ørjasæter
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Ricky van Wolfswinkel → Ramiz Zerrouki
7th Substitution
Event
Couhaib Driouech → Ivan Perišić
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Ismael Saibari → Noah Fernandez
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Joey Veerman → Guus Til
5th Substitution
71'
65'
Event
Stav Lemkin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
63'
Event
Mathias Kjølø → Daouda Weidmann
2nd Substitution
Event
Guus Til
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
56'
Event
Dennis Man
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
53'
Event
Anass Salah-Eddine → Kiliann Sildillia
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Noah Fernandez
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
44'
Event
Sergiño Dest
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
33'
Event
Ricardo Pepi
Var
23'
16'
Event
Sondre Ørjasæter
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Ryan Flamingo
Header / 1st Goal
15'

Match Commentary

89
Attempt Attempt
Robin Propper takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Substitution Substitution
Robin Propper is substituted for Kristian Hlynsson.
88
Update Update
Marko Pjaca comes on for Ruud Nijstad.
87
Attempt Attempt
Ismael Saibari from Ben El Basra takes a left-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Ricardo Pepi scores with a right-footed shot.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Ricardo Pepi scores, bringing the tally to 5 penalties for his team.
82
Attempt Attempt
Ismael Saibari from Ben El Basra takes a left-footed shot but misses.
78
Attempt Attempt
Ricardo Pepi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Update Update
Myron Boadu comes on for Dennis Man.
73
Update Update
Ricky van Wolfswinkel comes on for Ramiz Zerrouki.
73
Update Update
Arno Verschueren comes on for Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter.
71
Update Update
Couhaib Driouech replaces Ivan Perisic.
71
Update Update
Dennis Man comes on for Guus Til.
71
Update Update
Ismael Saibari replaces Noah Fernandez.
70
Attempt Attempt
Ramiz Zerrouki takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Ricardo Pepi attempts a header but misses the shot.
67
Attempt Attempt
Anass Salah-Eddine takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Stav Lemkin receives a yellow card.
65
Update Update
Stav Lemkin's header is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Ullereng Kjolo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Attempt Attempt
Mathias Ullereng Kjolo takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Substitution Substitution
Mathias Ullereng Kjolo is substituted off for Dennis Man.
61
Update Update
Yarek Gasiorowski's header is blocked.
56
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Guus Til scores, making it 4-1.
56
Attempt Attempt
Guus Til scores with a left-footed shot.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Dennis Man scores, making it 3-1.
53
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Man scores with a left-footed shot.
51
Update Update
Yarek Gasiorowski's header is blocked.
46
Update Update
Anass Salah-Eddine is on, and Kiliann Sildillia is off.
44
Attempt Attempt
Noah Fernandez scores with a right-footed shot.
41
Attempt Attempt
Sam Lammers takes a right-footed shot but misses.
40
Attempt Attempt
Daouda Weidmann takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
40
Attempt Attempt
Ruud Nijstad takes a left-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter attempts a header but misses the shot.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sergino Dest receives a yellow card.
30
Attempt Attempt
Paul Wanner attempts a left-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Paul Wanner takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
29
Attempt Attempt
Ruud Nijstad attempts a header but misses the shot.
27
Attempt Attempt
Bart van Rooij takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter scores with a right-footed shot.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sondre Holmlund Orjasaeter scores, making it 1-1.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ryan Flamingo takes the lead 1-0, assisted by Ivan Perisic.
7
Attempt Attempt
Daan Rots takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
6
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Hlynsson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
Kristian Hlynsson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Ramiz Zerrouki takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jeroen Manschot.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: PSV 5-1 FC Twente. Structural assessment: PSV exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

PSV vs FC Twente preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.