Preston North End vs Stoke City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Deepdale Fri, 20 Mar - 8:00 PM
Championship
Preston North End PNE
3 Winner 1
Stoke City STK
Full Time Fri, 20 Mar 8:00 PM
Round 39 Regular Season
Alfie Devine - 60', 15'
Milutin Osmajic - 57'
Goal
|
Goal
Sorba Thomas - 4'

CONTEXT

The match between Preston North End and Stoke City has officially finished, resulting in a commanding 3-0 full-time victory for Preston North End. Going into the fixture, Preston held a pre-market win probability of 40.3%, while Stoke City sat at 31.4%, with the draw priced at a 28.3% likelihood. Although Stoke City were recognized as the inherently stronger team overall, Preston North End produced a significant deviation of 59.7% to claim the home

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Preston North End showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Preston North End P. Heckingbottom
P. Heckingbottom
VS
Stoke City M. Robins
M. Robins
1.46
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.25
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Middlesbrough Rank: 74 L
Hull City Rank: 71 L
Derby County Rank: 71 L
Bristol City Rank: 68 W
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 53 W
Wrexham Rank: 75 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Birmingham City Rank: 70 D
Middlesbrough Rank: 74 L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 67 D
Norwich City Rank: 72 W
Hull City Rank: 71 W
Sheffield United Rank: 71 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 8 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Preston North End
40.33%
Draw
28.28%
Away Stoke City
31.39%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.19
67.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Preston North End
Stoke City
Power Score
66.19
67.3
League Position
13
15
Global Rank
294
268

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Preston North End — Opponent-weighted form score
Stoke City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Preston North End Stoke City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Preston North End

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Stoke City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Preston North End ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Stoke City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
33.91
25.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.56
33.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Preston North End +0.85 Efficiency Index
vs
Stoke City -0.85 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Preston North End
Stoke City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Preston North End
vs
Stoke City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Preston North End Stoke City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Preston North End Stoke City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Preston North End
Stoke City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Preston North End PNE Home
21 matches
Stoke City STK Away
Match Record
8
Wins
5
8
Draws
8
5
Losses
8
Goals
24
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
24
+6
Goal Difference
-6

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:17+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Iversen
Denmark
1 D. Iversen
J. Storey
England
14 J. Storey
L. Lindsay
Scotland
6 L. Lindsay
A. Hughes
Wales
16 A. Hughes
B. Whiteman
England
4 (C) B. Whiteman
P. Valentín Sancho
Substitution
Spain
2 P. Valentín Sancho
A. Moran
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
23 A. Moran
A. Devine
England
21 A. Devine
A. Vukčević
Substitution
Montenegro
3 A. Vukčević
M. Osmajić
Substitution
Montenegro
28 M. Osmajić
L. Dobbin
Substitution
England
17 L. Dobbin
Pitch
T. Simkim
England
25 T. Simkim
E. Bocat
France
17 E. Bocat
B. Gibson
England
23 B. Gibson
A. Phillips
England
26 A. Phillips
J. Tchamadeu
Substitution
Cameroon
22 J. Tchamadeu
B. Pearson
England
4 B. Pearson
S. Nzonzi
Substitution
France
15 (C) S. Nzonzi
S. Thomas
Wales
7 S. Thomas
T. Rigo
Slovakia
19 T. Rigo
M. Manhoef
Substitution
Netherlands
42 M. Manhoef
M. Smit
Substitution
Netherlands
49 M. Smit

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 20, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Deepdale
Capacity :
23408
Attendance :
16604
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Farai Hallam
Alistair Nelson
Andrew Fox
David Webb

Statistics

Possession
PNE
49%
STK
51%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
1 Shots 8
52 Dangerous attacks 36
46 Possession 54
7 Corners 9
7 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Assists 1
28 Successful Headers 26
26 Throwins 27
21 Dribble Attempts 16
8 Goal Kicks 9
6 Goal Attempts 3
75 Ball Safe 81
5 Substitutions 4
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
13 Successful Dribbles 4

Attacking

110 Attacks 101
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

218 Successful Passes 268
333 Passes 390
65 Successful Passes Percentage 69
13 Key Passes 9
70 Long Passes 73
24 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
17 Successful Long Passes 24

Defensive

15 Tackles 16
14 Interceptions 18
1 Saves 0
70 Duels Won 59

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 23
7 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

12 Fouls 7
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Farai Hallam

Starting XI ▼

1
Daniel Iversen
Daniel Iversen Goalkeeper
6.8
6
Liam Lindsay
Liam Lindsay Defender
7.72
14
Jordan Storey
Jordan Storey Defender
6.79
16
Andrew Hughes
Andrew Hughes Defender
7.5
2
Pol Valentín
Pol Valentín Midfielder
6.8
42
Odeluga Offiah
Odeluga Offiah
Defender84'
6.43
3
Andrija Vukcevic
Andrija Vukcevic Midfielder
6.53
26
Thierry Small
Thierry Small
Defender63'
6.65
4
Ben Whiteman
Ben Whiteman (C) Midfielder
6.7
21
Alfie Devine
Alfie Devine Midfielder
2
8.64
23
Andrew Moran
Andrew Moran Midfielder
7.97
44
Brad Potts
Brad Potts
Midfielder77'
6.33
17
Lewis Dobbin
Lewis Dobbin Attacker
7.34
24
Michael Smith
Michael Smith
Attacker84'
6.54
28
Milutin Osmajic
Milutin Osmajic Attacker
7.78
9
Daniel Jebbison
Daniel Jebbison
Attacker77'
6.42
Referee : Farai Hallam

Starting XI ▼

25
Tommy Simkin
Tommy Simkin Goalkeeper
5.82
17
Eric-Junior Bocat
Eric-Junior Bocat Defender
5.94
22
Junior Tchamadeu
Junior Tchamadeu Defender
6.87
21
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
Attacker46'
6.29
23
Ben Gibson
Ben Gibson Defender
6.96
26
Ashley Phillips
Ashley Phillips Defender
6.47
4
Ben Pearson
Ben Pearson Midfielder
6.65
7
Sorba Thomas
Sorba Thomas Midfielder
7.14
15
Steven​ N'Zonzi
Steven​ N'Zonzi (C) Midfielder
6.92
10
Jun-ho Bae
Jun-ho Bae
Midfielder48'
7.15
19
Tomas Rigo
Tomas Rigo Midfielder
7.04
42
Million Manhoef
Million Manhoef Midfielder
5.84
9
Divin Mubama
Divin Mubama
Attacker65'
6.49
49
Milan Smit
Milan Smit Attacker
6.27
20
Sam Gallagher
Sam Gallagher
Attacker46'
6.72

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Odeluga Offiah → Pol Valentín
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Michael Smith → Lewis Dobbin
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Daniel Jebbison → Milutin Osmajic
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Brad Potts → Andrew Moran
7th Substitution
77'
65'
Event
Divin Mubama → Million Manhoef
5th Substitution
Event
Thierry Small → Andrija Vukcevic
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Alfie Devine
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
60'
Event
Milutin Osmajic
Header / 3rd Goal
57'
48'
Event
Jun-ho Bae → Steven​ N'Zonzi
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi → Junior Tchamadeu
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Sam Gallagher → Milan Smit
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Million Manhoef
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Ben Whiteman
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
34'
Event
Alfie Devine
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
26'
Event
Alfie Devine
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
15'
4'
Event
Sorba Thomas
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Jesurun Rak-Sakyi of Stoke City attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after Daniel Iversen allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Update Update
Bae Jun-Ho from Stoke City earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tomás Rigo from Stoke City fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after Thierry Small allowed the ball to go out.
90
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Bae Jun-Ho from Stoke City attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it sailed high and to the right. The assist came from Sorba Thomas, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
90
Update Update
Odeluga Offiah from Preston North End committed a foul.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after Daniel Jebbison allowed the ball to go out.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tomás Rigo from Stoke City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
89
Update Update
Daniel Jebbison from Preston North End commits a handball.
88
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jesurun Rak-Sakyi from Stoke City takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Bae Jun-Ho.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Odeluga Offiah is replaced by Pol Valentín.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Michael Smith replaces Lewis Dobbin.
83
Update Update
Benjamin Whiteman from Preston North End committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Divin Mubama from Stoke City has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Lewis Dobbin from Preston North End attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
78
Update Update
Pol Valentín committed a foul against a player from Preston North End.
78
Update Update
Bae Jun-Ho from Stoke City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Daniel Jebbison comes on to replace Milutin Osmajic.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Brad Potts comes on to replace Andrew Moran.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after Jordan Storey allowed the ball to go out.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after a deflection off Benjamin Whiteman.
73
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal has been thwarted. Eric-Junior Bocat of Stoke City fired a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Tomás Rigo.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after Andrew Moran allowed the ball to go out.
72
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tomás Rigo from Stoke City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Sorba Thomas.
71
Update Update
Liam Lindsay from Preston North End committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Sam Gallagher from Stoke City was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Update Update
Milutin Osmajic from Preston North End earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
70
Update Update
Ben Pearson from Stoke City committed a foul.
69
Update Update
Pol Valentín committed a foul on a Preston North End player.
69
Update Update
Bae Jun-Ho from Stoke City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
68
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Benjamin Whiteman from Preston North End attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
65
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Divin Mubama comes on to replace Million Manhoef.
64
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Ashley Phillips from Stoke City.
64
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lewis Dobbin from Preston North End takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Andrew Hughes.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Thierry Small replaces Andrija Vukcevic.
61
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Eric-Junior Bocat from Stoke City fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Preston North End takes a 3-1 lead against Stoke City. Alfie Devine scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, finding the back of the net. The assist comes from Milutin Osmajic, who delivered a precise through ball during a quick counterattack.
57
Update Update
Milutin Osmajic from Preston North End has earned a free kick in an attacking position.
57
Update Update
Ben Gibson committed a foul for Stoke City.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Preston North End takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Stoke City. Milutin Osmajic scores with a header from close range, finding the center of the net. The assist comes from Lewis Dobbin, who delivered a precise cross.
56
Update Update
Offside call against Preston North End. Andrew Moran has been flagged for being in an offside position.
55
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. Alfie Devine from Preston North End fires a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Lewis Dobbin.
54
Update Update
Offside call against Preston North End. Lewis Dobbin has been flagged for being offside.
51
Update Update
Offside call against Preston North End. Lewis Dobbin is caught in an offside position.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after Andrija Vukcevic allowed the ball to go out.
49
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Million Manhoef from Stoke City attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Sam Gallagher.
48
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Bae Jun-Ho comes on to replace Steven Nzonzi due to an injury.
46
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Lewis Dobbin from Preston North End takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it narrowly misses the top right corner. The assist came from Alfie Devine.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Jesurun Rak-Sakyi replaces Junior Tchamadeu.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time added.
45
Update Update
Lewis Dobbin committed a foul against Preston North End.
45
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Steven Nzonzi of Stoke City.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Stoke City: Sam Gallagher replaces Milan Smit.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Preston North End and Stoke City.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score tied at 1-1 between Preston North End and Stoke City.
45
Update Update
Steven Nzonzi from Stoke City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Sorba Thomas committed a foul against Stoke City.
45
Update Update
Andrew Moran from Preston North End has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
43
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after Pol Valentín allowed the ball to go out.
42
Update Update
Lewis Dobbin from Preston North End earned a free kick in an offensive position.
42
Update Update
Steven Nzonzi from Stoke City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Million Manhoef of Stoke City.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Million Manhoef of Stoke City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
39
Update Update
Andrija Vukcevic of Preston North End has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Stoke City after Andrew Hughes allowed the ball to go out.
37
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Milutin Osmajic from Preston North End attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but couldn't convert.
35
Update Update
Pol Valentín from Preston North End has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Steven Nzonzi from Stoke City makes a header attempt from outside the penalty area. However, the shot is expertly stopped by goalkeeper Daniel Iversen of Preston North End, positioned centrally in the goal.
35
Update Update
Milan Smit from Stoke City committed a foul.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Benjamin Whiteman from Preston North End has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
33
Update Update
Sorba Thomas from Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
33
Update Update
Sorba Thomas of Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Ashley Phillips allowed the ball to go out.
31
Update Update
A header attempt from Liam Lindsay of Preston North End is stopped. The chance was set up by a cross from Benjamin Whiteman.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after a foul by Steven Nzonzi.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Eric-Junior Bocat gave it away.
26
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alfie Devine from Preston North End has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
26
Update Update
Andrija Vukcevic from Preston North End committed a foul.
26
Update Update
Million Manhoef of Stoke City has been awarded a free kick on the right side of the pitch.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Ben Pearson allowed the ball to go out.
24
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Liam Lindsay of Preston North End attempted a header from the center of the box, but it sailed over the bar. The chance was set up by Alfie Devine, who delivered a cross following a corner.
23
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Junior Tchamadeu allowed it to go out.
22
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Milan Smit from Stoke City fired a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Eric-Junior Bocat, who set him up with a header.
21
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Eric-Junior Bocat from Stoke City fires a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Steven Nzonzi.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Preston North End 1, Stoke City 1. Alfie Devine scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, sending the ball into the top right corner. The assist comes from Andrew Moran, who delivered a precise through ball during a swift counterattack.
12
Update Update
Junior Tchamadeu from Stoke City earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
12
Update Update
Andrija Vukcevic from Preston North End committed a foul.
12
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Million Manhoef from Stoke City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails over the goal. The assist came from Ben Gibson, who set him up with a header.
9
Update Update
Andrew Moran from Preston North End has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
9
Update Update
Ben Pearson from Stoke City committed a foul.
7
Update Update
Milutin Osmajic from Preston North End committed a foul.
7
Update Update
Steven Nzonzi from Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
4
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Stoke City takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Preston North End. Sorba Thomas scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, finding the top left corner of the net. The assist came from Junior Tchamadeu, who delivered a well-placed cross.
2
Update Update
Ben Pearson from Stoke City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
2
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Andrew Hughes from Preston North End heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Benjamin Whiteman, who delivered a cross.
2
Update Update
Milutin Osmajic committed a foul against Preston North End.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Junior Tchamadeu gave away the foul.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Preston North End after Tommy Simkin allowed the ball to go out.
1
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Andrija Vukcevic from Preston North End heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but his shot is blocked. The assist came from Lewis Dobbin, who delivered a cross.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Preston North End exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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