Preston North End vs Southampton Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Deepdale Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Championship
Preston North End PNE
1 Winner 3
Southampton SOU
Full Time Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Round 46 Regular Season
Lewis Dobbin - 60'
Goal
|
Goal
Cyle Larin - 90+1'
Ross Stewart - 47'
Taylor Harwood-Bellis - 12'

CONTEXT

Preston North End faced Southampton at Deepdale, falling to a 1-3 defeat. Southampton took control early, leading 1-0 at halftime through a clinical finish, before extending their advantage with two second-half goals. Preston managed a consolation strike but couldn't mount a serious challenge. Possession tilted slightly Southampton's way at 54% to 46%, reflecting their dominance in key areas. As the stronger team on paper, Southampton's win aligned with expectations, though a moderate 7.6% structural deviation highlighted some unpredictability in the scoreline progression. No red cards disrupted play, and efficiency metrics stayed in line throughout. The visitors capitalized on limited chances, underscoring their quality in transition and set pieces. Preston's defense struggled against Southampton's forward line, which exploited spaces effectively post-interval.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Southampton's 1-3 win featured moderate structural deviation of 7.6%.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable, preventing alignment evaluation.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned fully with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable due to absent metrics.
  • Event impact: No notable second-half adjustments or knockout elements influenced outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Martin

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. McGrath

2nd Assistant

D. Drysdale

4th Official

G. Byrne

1st Assistant

Preston North End P. Heckingbottom
P. Heckingbottom
VS
Southampton Tonda Eckert
Tonda Eckert
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.03
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield United Rank: 70 W
Birmingham City Rank: 70 L
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 66 L
Charlton Athletic Rank: 67 W
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 65 D
Leicester City Rank: 67 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ipswich Town Rank: 76 D
Bristol City Rank: 68 D
Swansea City Rank: 68 W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 W
Derby County Rank: 71 W
Wrexham Rank: 73 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Preston North End
0.32%
Draw
7.32%
Away Southampton
92.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.65
69.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Preston North End
Southampton
Power Score
65.65
69.68
League Position
14
4
Global Rank
310
72

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Preston North End — Opponent-weighted form score
Southampton — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Preston North End Southampton

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Preston North End

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Southampton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Preston North End ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Southampton
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.09
36.85
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.85
41.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Preston North End +0.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Southampton -0.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Preston North End
Southampton
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Preston North End ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Southampton
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Preston North End Southampton
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Preston North End Southampton
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Preston North End
Southampton
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Preston North End
vs
Southampton
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Preston North End Southampton
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Preston North End 0.28
Southampton 0.47
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Preston North End Southampton
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Preston North End 0.08
Southampton 0.02
Preston North End
Southampton
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PNE had peak pressure around 43'.
  • SOU started the game with stronger pressure.
PNE Pressure SOU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PNE reached the top pressure at 43' (76.31).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Preston North End PNE Home
12 matches
Southampton SOU Away
Match Record
4
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
4
Goals
19
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
19
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:02:34+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Iversen
Substitution
Denmark
1 D. Iversen
J. Storey
Substitution
England
14 J. Storey
L. Lindsay
Scotland
6 L. Lindsay
A. Hughes
Wales
16 A. Hughes
A. Vukčević
Montenegro
3 A. Vukčević
B. Potts
England
44 B. Potts
B. Whiteman
England
4 B. Whiteman
A. Devine
Substitution
England
21 A. Devine
A. Moran
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
23 A. Moran
L. Dobbin
England
17 L. Dobbin
D. Jebbison
Substitution
Canada
9 D. Jebbison
Pitch
D. Peretz
Israel
41 D. Peretz
Welington
Substitution
Brazil
34 Welington
N. Wood-Gordon
England
15 N. Wood-Gordon
T. Harwood-Bellis
England
6 T. Harwood-Bellis
S. Charles
England
24 S. Charles
C. Jander
Germany
20 C. Jander
C. Bragg
Substitution
England
48 C. Bragg
L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
Brazil
13 L. Weschenfelder-Scienza
C. Archer
Substitution
England
19 C. Archer
T. Fellows
Substitution
England
18 T. Fellows
R. Stewart
Substitution
Scotland
11 R. Stewart

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 46 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Deepdale
Capacity :
23408
Attendance :
20085
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Matt McGrath
Darren Drysdale
Stephen Martin
George Byrne

Statistics

Possession
PNE
46%
SOU
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 1
16 Shots 18
58 Dangerous attacks 38
46 Possession 54
10 Corners 5
6 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

74 Ball Safe 108
5 Substitutions 5
18 Successful Headers 21
11 Throwins 9
10 Goal Kicks 8
6 Successful Dribbles 11
13 Dribble Attempts 15
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 73
1 Assists 3
11 Goal Attempts 15
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

95 Attacks 100
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

379 Passes 478
30 Successful Long Passes 23
53 Long Passes 53
82 Successful Passes Percentage 86
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
13 Key Passes 15
312 Successful Passes 410

Defensive

38 Duels Won 58
14 Interceptions 4
8 Tackles 17
2 Saves 4

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 3
28 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

11 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Stephen Martin

Starting XI ▼

1
Daniel Iversen
Daniel Iversen Goalkeeper
6.89
13
David Cornell
David Cornell
Goalkeeper46'
6.74
3
Andrija Vukcevic
Andrija Vukcevic Defender
6.52
6
Liam Lindsay
Liam Lindsay Defender
6.88
14
Jordan Storey
Jordan Storey Defender
6.93
42
Odeluga Offiah
Odeluga Offiah
Defender46'
6.71
16
Andrew Hughes
Andrew Hughes Defender
6.8
4
Ben Whiteman
Ben Whiteman Midfielder
7.06
21
Alfie Devine
Alfie Devine Midfielder
7.02
15
Jordan Andrew Thompson
Jordan Andrew Thompson
Midfielder58'
6.67
23
Andrew Moran
Andrew Moran Midfielder
6.68
11
Robbie Brady
Robbie Brady
Midfielder75'
6.52
44
Brad Potts
Brad Potts Midfielder
6.82
9
Daniel Jebbison
Daniel Jebbison Attacker
6.64
28
Milutin Osmajic
Milutin Osmajic
Attacker58'
6.71
17
Lewis Dobbin
Lewis Dobbin Attacker
6.85
Referee : Stephen Martin

Starting XI ▼

41
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz Goalkeeper
6.96
6
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Defender
7.21
15
Nathan Wood
Nathan Wood Defender
6.77
24
Shea Emmanuel Charles
Shea Emmanuel Charles Defender
6.98
34
Welington
Welington Defender
6.64
3
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning
Defender77'
7.22
13
Leo Scienza
Leo Scienza Midfielder
7.28
18
Tom Fellows
Tom Fellows Midfielder
6.75
23
Samuel Edozie
Samuel Edozie
Midfielder84'
6.57
19
Cameron Archer
Cameron Archer Midfielder
6.61
10
Finn Azaz
Finn Azaz
Midfielder69'
7.1
20
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander Midfielder
6.9
48
Cameron Bragg
Cameron Bragg Midfielder
6.66
14
James Bree
James Bree
Defender68'
6.92
11
Ross Stewart
Ross Stewart Attacker
6.85
9
Cyle Larin
Cyle Larin
Attacker68'
6.81

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andrija Vukcevic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+1'
Event
Cyle Larin
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
84'
Event
Samuel Edozie → Tom Fellows
10th Substitution
81'
Event
Finn Azaz
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
77'
Event
Ryan Manning → Welington
9th Substitution
Event
Robbie Brady → Andrew Moran
8th Substitution
75'
69'
Event
Finn Azaz → Cameron Archer
7th Substitution
68'
Event
Cyle Larin → Ross Stewart
6th Substitution
68'
Event
James Bree → Cameron Bragg
5th Substitution
Event
Lewis Dobbin
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
60'
Event
Jordan Andrew Thompson → Alfie Devine
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Milutin Osmajic → Daniel Jebbison
3rd Substitution
58'
47'
Event
Ross Stewart
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
David Cornell → Daniel Iversen
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Odeluga Offiah → Jordan Storey
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Andrew Moran
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
34'
12'
Event
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Jordan Storey
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Robbie Brady takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Cyle Larin scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Cyle Larin's right-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Manning takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
85
Attempt Attempt
Odel Offiah's right-footed shot is blocked.
84
Update Update
Samuel Ikechukwu Edozie replaces Tom Fellows.
79
Attempt Attempt
Leo Scienza takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
77
Update Update
Ryan Manning replaces Wellington Santos.
76
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Thompson takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
75
Update Update
Robbie Brady comes on for Andy Moran.
74
Attempt Attempt
Leo Scienza takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Finn Azaz takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
72
Attempt Attempt
Brad Potts takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Update Update
Finn Azaz is on, and Cameron Archer is off.
68
Substitution Substitution
James Bree is substituted for Cameron Bragg.
68
Update Update
Cyle Larin replaces Ross Stewart.
65
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Archer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
62
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Archer takes a left-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Shea Charles takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Dobbin scores with a right-footed shot.
59
Attempt Attempt
Shea Charles has a left-footed shot that gets blocked.
58
Update Update
Jordan Thompson replaces Alfie Devine.
58
Update Update
Milutin Osmajic replaces Daniel Jebbison.
57
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Dobbin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Leo Scienza takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Andy Moran takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Update Update
Goal! Ross Stewart scores, making it 0-2.
47
Attempt Attempt
Ross Stewart scores with a left-footed shot.
46
Update Update
David Cornell comes on for Daniel Iversen.
40
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Dobbin's header is saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Alfie Devine's right-footed shot is blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Andrew Hughes takes a shot, but it's blocked.
34
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andy Moran receives a yellow card.
32
Update Update
Liam Lindsay takes a header, but it misses the target.
27
Attempt Attempt
Leo Scienza takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
20
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Dobbin takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Dobbin takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin Whiteman takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
17
Attempt Attempt
Alfie Devine's header is saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Tom Fellows takes a left-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Taylor Harwood-Bellis takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
11
Attempt Attempt
Taylor Harwood-Bellis takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordan Storey receives a yellow card.
7
Attempt Attempt
Ross Stewart attempts a header but misses the shot.
5
Attempt Attempt
Andrew Hughes attempts a header but misses the shot.
2
Attempt Attempt
Tom Fellows takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Southampton's 1-3 victory over Preston North End affirmed their superior status, converting halftime lead into comprehensive win without disruptions. Moderate deviation suggests scoreline captured underlying control, with possession edge aiding sustained pressure. Preston's response limited to one goal exposed vulnerabilities against organized attack. Efficiency consistency points to reliable execution, while market alignment reinforces predictable hierarchy. Lacking xG, analysis leans on observable metrics like territory and chance quality. Southampton's second-half strikes rewarded persistence, positioning them favorably in standings race. Preston must address defensive lapses for future resilience.

Preston North End vs Southampton preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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