Portugal vs Spain Prediction, Preview and Stats

2026 World Cup, World
Dallas Stadium Mon, 6 Jul - 7:00 PM
World Cup
Portugal POR
0 Winner 1
Spain ESP
Full Time Mon, 6 Jul 7:00 PM
Round of 16
|
Goal
Mikel Merino - 90+1'

CONTEXT

Portugal faced Spain in a tightly contested fixture that ended 0-1 to the visitors after a goalless first half. The teams were level at halftime with both sides registering zero goals. Portugal held 45 percent possession against Spain's 55 percent. Expected goals measured 0.86 for Portugal and 0.93 for Spain yielding a differential of minus 0.07. No red cards were shown to players from either team. Portugal entered as the stronger side yet Spain claimed the victory. The result remained consistent with the underlying expected goals data. Pre-match projections showed a significant deviation of 51.1 percent attributed to Spain. Efficiency metrics stayed in line with observed patterns throughout the match.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Spain recorded a significant structural deviation of 51.1 percent from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift remained in line with overall performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: The outcome aligned with expected goals of 0.86 for Portugal and 0.93 for Spain.
  • Market alignment: The final result stayed aligned with pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals indicated a narrow edge for Spain with a differential of minus 0.07.
  • Event impact: No major events altered the progression toward the 0-1 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no measurable distortion in match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Taylor

England 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 4 0.36
Fouls / match 30.4
Yellow cards / match 4
Red cards / match 0.36
Penalties / match 0.36

Other match officials

G. Beswick

1st Assistant

England

A. Nunn

2nd Assistant

England

F. Zwayer

4th Official

Germany

League averages

World Cup Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.61
Yellow cards / match 2.26
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.16
Portugal R. Martínez Montoliú
R. Martínez Montoliú
VS
Spain L. De la Fuente Castillo
L. De la Fuente Castillo
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.5
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Croatia Rank: W
Colombia Rank: D
Uzbekistan Rank: W
Congo DR Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Rank: W
Uruguay Rank: W
Saudi Arabia Rank: W
Cape Verde Islands Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Portugal
23.99%
Draw
27.09%
Away Spain
48.92%

Movement

Changes since opening
Portugal
+23.8%
Draw
+22.51%
Spain
-46.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.59
30.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Portugal
Spain
Power Score
32.59
30.37
League Position
2
1
Global Rank
5
2

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Portugal — Opponent-weighted form score
Spain — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Portugal Spain

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Portugal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Spain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Portugal
vs
Spain
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Portugal Spain
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
5%
15%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
-0.04 vs -0.14
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Portugal Spain
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
15%
5%
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
-0.14 vs -0.04
Portugal
Spain
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Portugal
vs
Spain
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Portugal Spain
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Portugal 0.00
Spain 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Portugal Spain
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Portugal 0.00
Spain 0.00
Portugal
Spain
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ESP had peak pressure around 18'.
  • POR started the game with stronger pressure.
POR Pressure ESP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ESP reached the top pressure at 18' (89.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Portugal POR Home
2 matches
Spain ESP Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-07-06T00:01:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
U. Simón Mendibil
Spain
23 U. Simón Mendibil
M. Cucurella
Spain
24 M. Cucurella
A. Laporte
Spain
14 A. Laporte
P. Cubarsí Paredes
Spain
22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
P. Porro Sauceda
Spain
12 P. Porro Sauceda
P. López
Substitution
Spain
20 P. López
Rodri
Spain
16 Rodri
A. Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
15 A. Rodríguez
D. Olmo Carvajal
Substitution
Spain
10 D. Olmo Carvajal
L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
Spain
19 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
Substitution
Spain
21 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte

General Information

Date & Time :
Jul 06, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2026 World Cup, World · Round of 16
Stadium :
Dallas Stadium
Capacity :
80000
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Anthony Taylor
Gary Beswick
Adam Nunn
Felix Zwayer

Statistics

Possession
POR
47%
ESP
53%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 6
38 Dangerous attacks 50
45 Possession 55
3 Corners 7
13 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

61 Ball Safe 62
6 Goal Kicks 6
4 Goal Attempts 7
5 Substitutions 4
20 Throwins 17
1 Hit Woodwork 0
9 Successful Headers 3
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 0
23 Dribble Attempts 10
9 Successful Dribbles 5
39 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

106 Attacks 96
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

53 Long Passes 36
426 Passes 531
357 Successful Passes 467
84 Successful Passes Percentage 88
6 Key Passes 7
24 Successful Long Passes 17
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

Defensive

5 Saves 2
14 Tackles 19
7 Interceptions 5
43 Duels Won 35

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

1
Diogo Costa
Diogo Costa Goalkeeper
7.64
3
Rúben Dias
Rúben Dias Defender
7.37
13
Renato Veiga
Renato Veiga Defender
7.36
20
João Cancelo
João Cancelo Defender
7.15
—
João Cancelo
71'
25
Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes Defender
7.49
—
Nuno Mendes 
56'
8
Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes Midfielder
7.31
18
Pedro Neto
Pedro Neto Midfielder
6.7
—
Pedro Neto 
83'
21
Rúben Neves
Rúben Neves Midfielder
6.58
23
Vitinha
Vitinha Midfielder
7.25
—
Vitinha
83'
7
Cristiano Ronaldo
Cristiano Ronaldo Attacker
7.39
17
Rafael Leão
Rafael Leão Attacker
7.05
Referee : Anthony Taylor

Starting XI ▼

23
Unai Simón
Unai Simón Goalkeeper
7.01
12
Pedro Porro
Pedro Porro Defender
8.38
14
Aymeric Laporte
Aymeric Laporte Defender
7.44
22
Pau Cubarsí
Pau Cubarsí Defender
7.42
24
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Defender
7.39
10
Dani Olmo
Dani Olmo Midfielder
7.01
—
Dani Olmo
85'
15
Álex Baena
Álex Baena Midfielder
7.32
—
Álex Baena
75'
16
Rodri
Rodri Midfielder
7.59
19
Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal Midfielder
7.18
20
Pedri
Pedri Midfielder
7.51
—
Pedri
85'
21
Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal Attacker
7.97
—
Mikel Oyarzabal
90+7'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+9'
Event
Ferran Torres
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Borja Iglesias → Mikel Oyarzabal
9th Substitution
Event
Renato Veiga
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+4'
90+1'
Event
Mikel Merino
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Bernardo Silva
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
89'
85'
Event
Mikel Merino → Dani Olmo
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Fabián Ruiz → Pedri
8th Substitution
Event
Francisco Conceição → Pedro Neto 
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Bernardo Silva → Vitinha
6th Substitution
83'
75'
Event
Ferran Torres → Álex Baena
4th Substitution
Event
Diogo Dalot → João Cancelo
2nd Substitution
71'
Event
Rafael Leão → João Félix
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Nélson Semedo → Nuno Mendes 
1st Substitution
56'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Mikel Merino wins a free kick for Spain in the attacking half.
90
Update Update
Bernardo Silva commits a foul for Portugal.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Spain takes the lead 1-0 against Portugal. Mikel Merino scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Ferran Torres with a through ball.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Lamine Yamal from Spain is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Renato Veiga commits a foul for Portugal.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Renato Veiga of Portugal receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
Bernardo Silva (Portugal) misses the header from very close range.
89
Update Update
Mikel Merino wins a free kick for Spain in the defensive half.
89
Update Update
Bernardo Silva commits a foul for Portugal.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bernardo Silva of Portugal receives a yellow card for a foul.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Fabián Ruiz comes on for Pedri.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Mikel Merino comes on for Dani Olmo.
84
Update Update
Lamine Yamal commits a foul for Spain.
84
Update Update
Nélson Semedo from Portugal wins a free kick in the defensive half.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Francisco Conceição comes on for Pedro Neto.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Bernardo Silva comes on for Vitinha.
80
Update Update
Rodri commits a handball for Spain.
79
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Nélson Semedo concedes.
78
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Rúben Dias concedes.
78
Attempt Attempt
Dani Olmo's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Mikel Oyarzabal provided the assist.
77
Attempt Attempt
Ferran Torres from Spain misses a right-footed shot from a tough angle on the right, sending the ball to the right. He was assisted by Pedri with a through ball.
76
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Fernandes (Portugal) misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, going close but missing to the right.
76
Attempt Attempt
Vitinha's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Cristiano Ronaldo provided the assist.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Spain: Ferran Torres comes on for Álex Baena.
73
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Diogo Costa concedes.
73
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Lamine Yamal's left-footed shot from a difficult angle and long range on the right is saved in the top center of the goal by Diogo Costa.
72
Update Update
Lamine Yamal of Spain is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
72
Update Update
Nélson Semedo commits a foul for Portugal.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Diogo Dalot comes on for João Cancelo.
71
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Rafael Leão comes on for João Félix.
68
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
65
Corner Corner
Álex Baena's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Diogo Costa.
63
Update Update
Pedri commits a foul for Spain.
63
Update Update
Bruno Fernandes wins a free kick for Portugal in the attacking half.
62
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after João Félix concedes it.
62
Attempt Attempt
Lamine Yamal's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
61
Update Update
Lamine Yamal commits a foul for Spain.
61
Update Update
João Félix wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
61
Corner Corner
Spain is awarded a corner after Renato Veiga concedes.
61
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Pedri's right-footed shot from outside the box for Spain is blocked. Dani Olmo provided the assist.
59
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) took a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right.
58
Update Update
Cristiano Ronaldo is caught offside for Portugal.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portugal: Nélson Semedo comes on for Nuno Mendes due to an injury.
55
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
54
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Nuno Mendes from Portugal.
50
Update Update
Lamine Yamal commits a foul for Spain.
50
Update Update
Nuno Mendes wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
48
Update Update
Dani Olmo commits a foul for Spain.
48
Update Update
Cristiano Ronaldo wins a free kick for Portugal in the attacking half.
46
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Portugal and Spain.
45
Attempt Attempt
Rodri from Spain misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Lamine Yamal is caught offside for Spain.
45
Update Update
Dani Olmo of Spain wins a free kick in the attacking half.
45
Update Update
Rúben Dias commits a foul for Portugal.
45
Update Update
João Félix wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Pau Cubarsí of Spain.
45
Update Update
Pedro Porro wins a free kick for Spain in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
João Félix commits a foul for Portugal.
41
Attempt Attempt
Nuno Mendes' left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. João Félix provided the assist.
40
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to João Félix from Portugal.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Pedro Porro of Spain.
40
Update Update
João Félix wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
38
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are ready to continue.
37
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Cristiano Ronaldo's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. João Félix's header from the left side of the six-yard box is saved.
35
Update Update
Lamine Yamal commits a foul for Spain.
35
Update Update
João Félix wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
31
Corner Corner
Attempt missed. Dani Olmo (Spain) header from the centre of the box following a corner.
31
Update Update
Foul committed by Aymeric Laporte of Spain.
31
Update Update
Cristiano Ronaldo wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
30
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Nuno Mendes concedes.
29
Update Update
Pedro Neto of Portugal commits a handball.
26
Update Update
Delay is over, and they are set to continue.
23
Update Update
The match is currently delayed for a drinks break.
23
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Porro from Spain misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box after a set piece situation.
22
Update Update
Álex Baena of Spain is awarded a free kick on the left wing.
22
Update Update
João Cancelo commits a foul for Portugal.
21
Update Update
Bruno Fernandes is caught offside for Portugal.
19
Update Update
Álex Baena commits a foul for Spain.
19
Update Update
Pedro Neto wins a free kick for Portugal in the defensive half.
16
Corner Corner
Spain wins a corner after Diogo Costa concedes.
16
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Lamine Yamal's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved.
16
Corner Corner
Álex Baena's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Diogo Costa.
14
Attempt Attempt
Álex Baena (Spain) misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right.
12
Corner Corner
Portugal wins a corner, conceded by Unai Simón.
12
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Cristiano Ronaldo's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Unai Simón. The assist came from Bruno Fernandes.
11
Update Update
Pedro Porro of Spain is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
11
Update Update
João Félix commits a foul for Portugal.
10
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. Pedro Neto's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portugal after Pedri concedes.
8
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Oyarzabal from Spain misses an attempt with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
7
Attempt Attempt
João Cancelo from Portugal misses an attempt with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, sending it too high. Nuno Mendes provided the assist.
3
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Mikel Oyarzabal's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Diogo Costa.
2
Attempt Attempt
Mikel Oyarzabal takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Update Update
João Neves from Portugal wins a free kick on the left wing.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Anthony Taylor.

CONCLUSION

The 0-1 result reflected a narrow away success built on slight expected goals superiority and higher possession. Portugal created limited clear opportunities despite entering as the stronger side while Spain maintained control after the even opening period. With no disciplinary interventions the game followed expected patterns without external adjustments. The alignment between actual outcome and underlying metrics confirmed the validity of the score. Spain capitalized on marginal advantages in the second half to secure the points. Possession distribution and chance quality combined to produce a result consistent with data rather than pre-match assumptions. This outcome highlights how small differentials in key indicators can determine narrow victories in balanced encounters.

Portugal vs Spain preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Daniels Zorge

Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.