Portsmouth vs Oxford United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Fratton Park Mon, 6 Apr - 11:30 AM
Championship
Portsmouth PTM
2 – 2
Oxford United OXF
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 41 Regular Season
Andre Dozzell - 88'
Keshi Anderson - 9'
Goal
|
Goal
Will Lankshear - 81'
Brodie Gilmore Spencer - 48'
Connor Ogilvie 17' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Portsmouth and Oxford United has finished, with Oxford United securing a 2-1 away victory. Portsmouth initially held a 1-0 advantage at half-time, but the visitors successfully turned the game around in the second period. This outcome represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Going into the fixture, Portsmouth were the stronger team and clear market favorites with a 48.3% win probability, while Oxford United were given just a 22.9% chance of claiming the win. A major turning point was a red card issued to Portsmouth, which created a clear second-half distortion. Capitalizing on their numerical advantage, Oxford United controlled the ball and finished the match with 57% possession, restricting the ten-man hosts to just 43%. Because expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final scoreline aligned with the underlying chance quality. Ultimately, the result was not aligned with the pre-match market, as the significant underdog toppled the hosts. However, despite the dramatic away comeback and the red card disadvantage, the overall efficiency shift for the match remained completely in line with standard expectations.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Oxford United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Smith

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Lewis

1st Assistant

A. Fox

2nd Assistant

Dean Whitestone

4th Official

Portsmouth J. Mousinho
J. Mousinho
VS
Oxford United M. Bloomfield
M. Bloomfield
0.97
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Norwich City Rank: 71 D
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 65 L
Derby County Rank: 68 L
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 D
Hull City Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hull City Rank: 71 D
Southampton Rank: 74 L
Charlton Athletic Rank: 67 D
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 W
Preston North End Rank: 66 W
West Bromwich Albion Rank: 66 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Portsmouth
48.3%
Draw
28.83%
Away Oxford United
22.87%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.18
64.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Portsmouth
Oxford United
Power Score
65.18
64.63
League Position
21
23
Global Rank
310
328

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Portsmouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Oxford United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Portsmouth Oxford United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Portsmouth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Oxford United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Portsmouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oxford United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.40
20.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.00
26.40
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Portsmouth +0.65 Efficiency Index
vs
Oxford United -0.65 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Portsmouth
Oxford United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Portsmouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Oxford United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Portsmouth Oxford United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Portsmouth Oxford United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Portsmouth
Oxford United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Portsmouth
vs
Oxford United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Portsmouth Oxford United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Portsmouth 0.19
Oxford United 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Portsmouth Oxford United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Portsmouth 0.04
Oxford United 0.04
Portsmouth
Oxford United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Portsmouth PTM Home
3 matches
Oxford United OXF Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
4
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
4
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:01:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Schmid
Austria
1 N. Schmid
T. Devlin
Northern Ireland
24 T. Devlin
R. Poole
Wales
5 R. Poole
C. Shaughnessy
Republic of Ireland
6 C. Shaughnessy
C. Ogilvie
England
3 C. Ogilvie
M. Pack
England
7 M. Pack
A. Dozzell
England
21 A. Dozzell
G. Caballero
Paraguay
47 G. Caballero
C. Chaplin
Substitution
England
36 C. Chaplin
K. Anderson
Substitution
England
37 K. Anderson
C. Bishop
England
9 C. Bishop
Pitch
J. Cumming
England
1 J. Cumming
B. Spencer
Substitution
Northern Ireland
15 B. Spencer
C. Brown
England
3 C. Brown
M. Helik
Poland
6 M. Helik
S. Long
Substitution
England
2 S. Long
C. Brannagan
England
8 C. Brannagan
Y. Konak
Substitution
Turkey
5 Y. Konak
M. Peart-Harris
Substitution
England
44 M. Peart-Harris
J. Donley
Northern Ireland
33 J. Donley
S. Mills
England
17 S. Mills
W. Lankshear
England
27 W. Lankshear

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 06, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 41 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Fratton Park
Capacity :
20688
Attendance :
20356
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Joshua Smith
Samuel Lewis
Andrew Fox
Dean Whitestone

Statistics

Possession
PTM
46%
OXF
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 9
47 Dangerous attacks 48
43 Possession 57
6 Corners 5
18 Free kicks 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

11 Successful Headers 10
7 Successful Dribbles 2
2 Assists 1
17 Throwins 27
76 Ball Safe 107
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 14
7 Goal Attempts 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
17 Dribble Attempts 14
8 Goal Kicks 9
2 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

69 Attacks 89

Possession

73 Successful Passes Percentage 82
4 Key Passes 6
255 Passes 339
56 Long Passes 64
187 Successful Passes 279
19 Successful Long Passes 35
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55

Defensive

1 Saves 1
22 Tackles 15
57 Duels Won 33
11 Interceptions 4

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 21
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

3 Offsides 2
6 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Joshua Smith

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicolas Schmid
Nicolas Schmid Goalkeeper
3
Connor Ogilvie
Connor Ogilvie Defender
5
Regan Poole
Regan Poole Defender
6
Conor Shaughnessy
Conor Shaughnessy Defender
24
Terry Devlin
Terry Devlin Defender
7
Marlon Pack
Marlon Pack Midfielder
21
Andre Dozzell
Andre Dozzell Midfielder
36
Conor Chaplin
Conor Chaplin Midfielder
2
Jordan Williams
Jordan Williams
Defender21'
37
Keshi Anderson
Keshi Anderson Midfielder
27
Millenic Alli
Millenic Alli
Attacker81'
47
Gustavo Caballero
Gustavo Caballero Midfielder
9
Colby Bishop
Colby Bishop Attacker
Referee : Joshua Smith

Starting XI ▼

1
Jamie Cumming
Jamie Cumming Goalkeeper
2
Sam Long
Sam Long Defender
24
Hidde ter Avest
Hidde ter Avest
Defender46'
3
Ciaron Maurice Brown
Ciaron Maurice Brown Defender
6
Michal Helik
Michal Helik Defender
15
Brodie Gilmore Spencer
Brodie Gilmore Spencer Defender
7
Przemyslaw Placheta
Przemyslaw Placheta
Midfielder66'
5
Yunus Konak
Yunus Konak Midfielder
4
Will Vaulks
Will Vaulks
Midfielder46'
8
Cameron Brannagan
Cameron Brannagan Midfielder
17
Stanley Mills
Stanley Mills Midfielder
33
Jamie Paul Donley
Jamie Paul Donley Midfielder
44
Myles Peart-Harris
Myles Peart-Harris Midfielder
9
Mark Harris
Mark Harris
Attacker80'
27
Will Lankshear
Will Lankshear Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andre Dozzell
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
88'
Event
Millenic Alli → Keshi Anderson
6th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Will Lankshear
Header / 3rd Goal
80'
Event
Mark Harris → Myles Peart-Harris
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Michal Helik
5th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Przemyslaw Placheta → Brodie Gilmore Spencer
4th Substitution
Event
Marlon Pack
4th Yellowcard
65'
Event
Andre Dozzell
3rd Yellowcard
62'
61'
Event
Will Vaulks
2nd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Brodie Gilmore Spencer
1st Yellowcard
48'
Event
Brodie Gilmore Spencer
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Will Vaulks → Yunus Konak
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Hidde ter Avest → Sam Long
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jordan Williams → Conor Chaplin
1st Substitution
21'
Event
Connor Ogilvie
1st Redcard
17'
Event
Keshi Anderson
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
9'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 2-2 between Portsmouth and Oxford United.
90
Update Update
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Ciaron Brown of Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Andre Dozzell from Portsmouth shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it goes over the goal.
90
Update Update
Foul by Will Vaulks - Oxford United.
90
Update Update
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United commits a foul.
90
Update Update
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth commits a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after Jordan Williams concedes.
89
Update Update
Offside called against Oxford United. Will Lankshear is offside.
87
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Andre Dozzell scores for Portsmouth with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Millenic Alli after a corner. The match is now 2-2 against Oxford United.
87
Corner Corner
Portsmouth wins a corner after Stanley Mills concedes.
84
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Stanley Mills of Oxford United.
83
Attempt Attempt
Jordan Williams' shot for Portsmouth from the center of the box is blocked. Millenic Alli provided the assist.
81
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Oxford United takes the lead 2-1 against Portsmouth. Will Lankshear scores with a header from close range into the right corner, assisted by Michal Helik's cross.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Millenic Alli replaces Keshi Anderson.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Mark Harris replaces Myles Peart-Harris.
78
Update Update
Keshi Anderson from Portsmouth won a free kick on the left wing.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Michal Helik from Oxford United receives a yellow card for a foul.
78
Update Update
Keshi Anderson from Portsmouth won a free kick on the left wing.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Michal Helik of Oxford United.
77
Update Update
Keshi Anderson from Portsmouth is flagged for offside.
77
Update Update
Regan Poole of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
71
Update Update
Terry Devlin of Portsmouth won a free kick on the right wing.
71
Update Update
Will Lankshear of Oxford United commits a foul.
69
Attempt Attempt
Stanley Mills from Oxford United has a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it is blocked.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after Conor Shaughnessy concedes.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Przemyslaw Placheta replaces Brodie Spencer.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marlon Pack of Portsmouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
65
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth committed a foul.
65
Update Update
Brodie Spencer of Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
65
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Andre Dozzell from Portsmouth shot with his left foot from outside the box.
64
Update Update
Fouled by Brodie Spencer of Oxford United.
64
Update Update
Terry Devlin from Portsmouth won a free kick on the right wing.
63
Update Update
Gustavo Caballero of Portsmouth is caught offside.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Michal Helik of Oxford United.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Michal Helik for Oxford United.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Andre Dozzell from Portsmouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Will Vaulks from Oxford United receives a yellow card for a foul.
61
Update Update
Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth won a free kick on the right wing.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Will Vaulks for Oxford United.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Brodie Spencer of Oxford United receives a yellow card for a foul.
58
Update Update
Terry Devlin from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
58
Update Update
Fouled by Brodie Spencer of Oxford United.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Will Vaulks - Oxford United.
57
Update Update
Keshi Anderson of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
56
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after a concession by Andre Dozzell.
56
Attempt Attempt
Will Vaulks from Oxford United has a shot from outside the box with his right foot, but it's blocked. Cameron Brannagan provided the assist.
52
Corner Corner
Portsmouth wins a corner after Hidde ter Avest concedes.
50
Corner Corner
Keshi Anderson from Portsmouth misses a chance as his left-footed shot from the left side of the box goes high after a corner.
49
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Stanley Mills concedes.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brodie Spencer scores for Oxford United with a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, placing it to the left side of the center of the goal. The match is now 1-1.
48
Corner Corner
Stanley Mills of Oxford United attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Nicolas Schmid of Portsmouth. The assist comes from Michal Helik.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Keshi Anderson of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Portsmouth leading Oxford United 1-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Hidde ter Avest replaces Sam Long.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Portsmouth 1, Oxford United 0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Will Vaulks replaces Yunus Konak.
45
Corner Corner
Regan Poole from Portsmouth attempts a header from the center of the box, but Jamie Cumming from Oxford United makes a save in the right corner. The assist comes from Andre Dozzell, who also provided a header.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Jamie Donley of Oxford United.
39
Attempt Attempt
Yunus Konak's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Stanley Mills.
38
Corner Corner
Oxford United win a corner after Terry Devlin concedes.
37
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth commits a handball.
34
Update Update
Terry Devlin of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Will Lankshear of Oxford United.
32
Update Update
Jordan Williams of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
32
Update Update
Stanley Mills fouled Oxford United.
31
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box but the ball went high.
28
Update Update
Marlon Pack fouled a player from Portsmouth.
28
Update Update
Cameron Brannagan from Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
27
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Yunus Konak concedes.
26
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Caballero's shot for Portsmouth from outside the box is blocked.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Brodie Spencer concedes.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Yunus Konak of Oxford United.
24
Update Update
Andre Dozzell of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Will Lankshear of Oxford United.
23
Update Update
Regan Poole of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
21
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by Michal Helik of Oxford United.
21
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Jordan Williams replaces Conor Chaplin.
18
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Nicolas Schmid from Portsmouth.
17
Update Update
Connor Ogilvie fouled a player from Portsmouth.
17
Update Update
Stanley Mills of Oxford United won a free kick on the right wing.
17
Red Card Red Card Important
Connor Ogilvie from Portsmouth receives a red card.
16
Update Update
Offside called against Oxford United. Will Lankshear is offside.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Sam Long of Oxford United.
13
Update Update
Keshi Anderson of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
11
Update Update
Regan Poole from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Will Lankshear of Oxford United.
9
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Portsmouth leads 1-0 against Oxford United. Keshi Anderson scores for Portsmouth with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Colby Bishop.
6
Update Update
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth is caught offside.
6
Corner Corner
Portsmouth wins a corner after Ciaron Brown concedes.
4
Corner Corner
Oxford United win a corner after Regan Poole concedes.
4
Attempt Attempt
Myles Peart-Harris from Oxford United had a left-footed shot from the left side of the box that was blocked, with an assist from Stanley Mills.
4
Corner Corner
Yunus Konak from Oxford United misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right. The assist came from Michal Helik after a corner.
3
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Brannagan's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
1
Update Update
Will Lankshear from Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
1
Update Update
Conor Shaughnessy fouled a Portsmouth player.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Oxford United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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