Portsmouth vs Leicester City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Fratton Park Sat, 18 Apr - 11:30 AM
Championship
Portsmouth PTM
1 Winner 0
Leicester City LEI
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 43 Regular Season
Ibane Bowat - 63'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Portsmouth secured a gritty 1-0 victory over Leicester City in a closely contested match. The first half finished level at 0-0, with possession split at 47% for the hosts and 53% for the visitors, reflecting a balanced affair. Portsmouth, deemed the stronger side, absorbed Leicester's territorial advantage effectively through disciplined defending. The breakthrough arrived in the second half, where Portsmouth converted their key chance into the game's lone goal, showcasing clinical finishing. No red cards disrupted proceedings, allowing both teams to maintain their structures. The outcome highlighted Portsmouth's efficiency in limited opportunities, aligning with pre-match evaluations and demonstrating minimal structural deviation. This result reinforces Portsmouth's control in tight encounters, setting a positive tone for future fixtures.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited minimal structural deviation of 4.8% favoring Portsmouth.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Ward

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Woodward

1st Assistant

C. Brown

2nd Assistant

Dean Whitestone

4th Official

Portsmouth J. Mousinho
J. Mousinho
VS
Leicester City G. Rowett
G. Rowett
1.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.94
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Ipswich Town Rank: W
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Oxford United Rank: D
Norwich City Rank: D
Queens Park Rangers Rank: L
Derby County Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Swansea City Rank: L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: D
Preston North End Rank: D
Watford Rank: D
Queens Park Rangers Rank: L
Bristol City Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Portsmouth
95.23%
Draw
4.58%
Away Leicester City
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Portsmouth
+2.93%
Draw
-2.8%
Leicester City
-0.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.76
19.7
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Portsmouth
Leicester City
Power Score
24.76
19.7
League Position
18
23
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Portsmouth Opponent-weighted form score
Leicester City Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Portsmouth Leicester City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Portsmouth

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Leicester City

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Portsmouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leicester City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.15
30.28
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.28
29.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Portsmouth -0.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Leicester City +0.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Portsmouth
Leicester City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Portsmouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leicester City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Portsmouth Leicester City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Portsmouth Leicester City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Portsmouth
Leicester City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Portsmouth
vs
Leicester City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Portsmouth Leicester City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Portsmouth Leicester City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Portsmouth
Leicester City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PTM had peak pressure around 70'.
  • PTM started the game with stronger pressure.
PTM Pressure LEI Pressure
Pressure Index: PTM reached the top pressure at 70' (77.91).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Portsmouth PTM Home
8 matches
Leicester City LEI Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
2
Goals
12
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
12
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:02:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Schmid
Austria
1 N. Schmid
T. Devlin
Substitution
Northern Ireland
24 T. Devlin
R. Poole
Wales
5 R. Poole
C. Shaughnessy
Republic of Ireland
6 C. Shaughnessy
J. Williams
England
2 J. Williams
M. Pack
England
7 M. Pack
A. Dozzell
England
21 A. Dozzell
M. Alli
Republic of Ireland
27 M. Alli
C. Chaplin
Substitution
England
36 C. Chaplin
K. Anderson
Substitution
England
37 K. Anderson
C. Bishop
England
9 C. Bishop
Pitch
A. Begović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
31 A. Begović
L. Thomas
England
33 L. Thomas
J. Vestergaard
Denmark
23 J. Vestergaard
J. Lascelles
England
24 J. Lascelles
R. Barbosa Pereira
Substitution
Portugal
21 R. Barbosa Pereira
H. Winks
England
8 H. Winks
H. Choudhury
Substitution
England
17 H. Choudhury
S. Mavididi
Substitution
England
10 S. Mavididi
B. Reid
Substitution
Jamaica
14 B. Reid
A. Issahaku
Ghana
7 A. Issahaku
P. Daka
Zambia
20 P. Daka

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 43 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Fratton Park
Capacity :
20688
Attendance :
20344
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Gavin Ward
Richard Woodward
Connor Brown
Dean Whitestone

Statistics

Possession
PTM
47%
LEI
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 7
54 Dangerous attacks 41
47 Possession 53
5 Corners 7
12 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

13 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
27 Throwins 23
8 Dribble Attempts 10
34 Successful Headers 24
4 Substitutions 4
1 Successful Dribbles 6
9 Goal Kicks 12
5 Goal Attempts 5
1 Assists 0
82 Ball Safe 90

Attacking

89 Attacks 89
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

161 Successful Passes 195
262 Passes 297
65 Long Passes 84
26 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
7 Key Passes 6
61 Successful Passes Percentage 66
17 Successful Long Passes 30

Defensive

14 Tackles 11
61 Duels Won 52
7 Interceptions 9
3 Saves 1

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 4
21 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
11 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI

1
Nicolas Schmid
Nicolas Schmid Goalkeeper
6.67
2
Jordan Williams
Jordan Williams Defender
6.59
5
Regan Poole
Regan Poole Defender
6.86
6
Conor Shaughnessy
Conor Shaughnessy Defender
6.88
24
Terry Devlin
Terry Devlin Defender
6.96
17
Ibane Bowat
Ibane Bowat
Defender17'
6.59
7
Marlon Pack
Marlon Pack Midfielder
6.93
21
Andre Dozzell
Andre Dozzell Midfielder
6.78
27
Millenic Alli
Millenic Alli Midfielder
6.66
36
Conor Chaplin
Conor Chaplin Midfielder
6.61
38
Ebou Adams
Ebou Adams
Midfielder77'
7.14
37
Keshi Anderson
Keshi Anderson Midfielder
6.61
10
Adrian Segecic
Adrian Segecic
Midfielder8'
6.72
9
Colby Bishop
Colby Bishop Attacker
6.69
Referee : Gavin Ward

Starting XI

31
Steve Potts
Steve Potts Goalkeeper
6.52
21
Ricardo Pereira
Ricardo Pereira Defender
6.83
56
Olabade Aluko
Olabade Aluko
Defender90+1'
6.13
23
Jannik Vestergaard
Jannik Vestergaard Defender
7.03
24
Jamaal Lascelles
Jamaal Lascelles Defender
6.59
33
Luke Thomas
Luke Thomas Defender
6.8
7
Issahaku Fatawu
Issahaku Fatawu Midfielder
6.9
8
Harry Winks
Harry Winks Midfielder
6.95
10
Stephy Mavididi
Stephy Mavididi Midfielder
6.58
29
Divine Mukasa
Divine Mukasa
Midfielder71'
7.1
14
Bobby De Cordova-Reid
Bobby De Cordova-Reid Midfielder
6.7
9
Jordan Ayew
Jordan Ayew
Attacker76'
6.82
17
Hamza Choudhury
Hamza Choudhury Midfielder
6.75
6
Jordan James
Jordan James
Midfielder70'
7.08
20
Patson Daka
Patson Daka Attacker
6.71

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Olabade Aluko Ricardo Pereira
8th Substitution
Event
Jacob Brown
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90'
90'
Event
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Ebou Adams Conor Chaplin
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Jacob Brown Adrian Segecic
7th Substitution
77'
76'
Event
Jordan Ayew Bobby De Cordova-Reid
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Jordan Ayew
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
75'
Event
Patson Daka
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
71'
Event
Divine Mukasa Stephy Mavididi
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Hamza Choudhury
5th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Jordan James Hamza Choudhury
3rd Substitution
Event
Ibane Bowat
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
63'
1ST-HALF
Event
Ibane Bowat Terry Devlin
2nd Substitution
17'
Event
Adrian Segecic Keshi Anderson
1st Substitution
8'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Divine Mukasa from Leicester City took a left-footed shot from outside the box after a free kick, but it missed.
90
Update Update
Jordan Ayew of Leicester City won a free kick in defense.
90
Attempt Attempt
Abdul Fatawu's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jacob Brown from Portsmouth receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Harry Winks from Leicester City has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leicester City: Olabade Aluko replaces Ricardo Pereira.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Millenic Alli of Portsmouth.
90
Update Update
Jannik Vestergaard from Leicester City won a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Attempt Attempt
Harry Winks from Leicester City has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Portsmouth leading Leicester City 1-0.
90
Update Update
Regan Poole fouled a player from Portsmouth.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jacob Brown from Portsmouth receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth receives a yellow card.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordan Ayew of Leicester City receives a yellow card.
89
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth commits a foul.
86
Attempt Attempt
Divine Mukasa's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Patson Daka.
86
Update Update
Jordan Ayew from Leicester City won a free kick in the attacking area.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Jamaal Lascelles against Leicester City.
84
Update Update
Colby Bishop from Portsmouth committed a foul.
84
Update Update
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth won a free kick on the left wing.
84
Update Update
Patson Daka from Leicester City won a free kick in defense.
83
Update Update
Millenic Alli from Portsmouth won a free kick on the left wing.
83
Update Update
Foul committed by Ricardo Pereira of Leicester City.
81
Update Update
Divine Mukasa of Leicester City won a free kick on the left wing.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Andre Dozzell against Portsmouth.
78
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Patson Daka of Leicester City shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but Nicolas Schmid, the goalkeeper for Portsmouth, saves it in the center of the goal.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Jacob Brown replaces Adrian Segecic.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Ebou Adams replaces Conor Chaplin.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leicester City: Jordan Ayew replaces Bobby De Cordova-Reid.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Patson Daka of Leicester City receives a yellow card for a foul.
75
Update Update
Nicolas Schmid from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
75
Update Update
Foul committed by Patson Daka of Leicester City.
74
Corner Corner
Leicester City wins a corner after Regan Poole concedes.
74
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Patson Daka from Leicester City heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Jannik Vestergaard's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Jordan James, who provided the cross.
74
Attempt Attempt
Divine Mukasa's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Abdul Fatawu.
73
Attempt Attempt
Colby Bishop from Portsmouth had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box but it went close and missed. The assist came from Adrian Segecic with a cross.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by Jannik Vestergaard of Leicester City.
72
Update Update
Adrian Segecic from Portsmouth won a free kick on the right wing.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leicester City: Divine Mukasa replaces Stephy Mavididi.
70
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hamza Choudhury from Leicester City receives a yellow card.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Leicester City: Jordan James replaces Hamza Choudhury.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Andre Dozzell against Portsmouth.
69
Update Update
Hamza Choudhury from Leicester City won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
Jamaal Lascelles from Leicester City won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
Colby Bishop from Portsmouth committed a foul.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Abdul Fatawu - Leicester City.
67
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
65
Update Update
Foul by Conor Chaplin - Portsmouth.
65
Update Update
Harry Winks from Leicester City won a free kick in defense.
63
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Portsmouth leads 1-0 against Leicester City. Ibane Bowat scores with a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box into the left corner, assisted by Adrian Segecic's cross after a corner.
62
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Harry Winks concedes.
62
Attempt Attempt
Andre Dozzell's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Conor Chaplin provided the assist.
60
Update Update
Hamza Choudhury from Leicester City committed a foul.
60
Update Update
Nicolas Schmid of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
60
Corner Corner
Stephy Mavididi from Leicester City had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but the shot went to the left. The assist came from Patson Daka after a corner.
60
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Segecic from Portsmouth missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box and missing to the left. Colby Bishop provided the assist with a through ball.
59
Corner Corner
Leicester City wins a corner after Conor Shaughnessy concedes.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Hamza Choudhury from Leicester City shot with his right foot from inside the six-yard box, aiming for the left side, but missed to the left.
54
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Asmir Begovic from Leicester City.
52
Update Update
Luke Thomas from Leicester City won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Offside called against Portsmouth. Conor Chaplin is offside.
48
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Segecic's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
47
Corner Corner
Portsmouth wins a corner after Asmir Begovic concedes.
47
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Conor Chaplin of Portsmouth shoots with his left foot from the left side of the box, but Asmir Begovic of Leicester City saves it in the left corner.
45
Corner Corner
Leicester City wins a corner after Ibane Bowat concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Bobby De Cordova-Reid from Leicester City takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it is saved.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Portsmouth and Leicester City tied at 0-0.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the match score at 0-0 between Portsmouth and Leicester City.
42
Attempt Attempt
Regan Poole from Portsmouth had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but missing to the left. Conor Chaplin provided the assist.
37
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Abdul Fatawu from Leicester City.
36
Corner Corner
Bobby De Cordova-Reid from Leicester City misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but the ball goes high after a corner.
35
Update Update
Bobby De Cordova-Reid from Leicester City won a free kick on the left wing.
35
Update Update
Conor Chaplin from Portsmouth committed a foul.
35
Corner Corner
Leicester City win a corner after Regan Poole concedes.
33
Corner Corner
Leicester City win a corner after Andre Dozzell concedes.
33
Attempt Attempt
Abdul Fatawu's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
31
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Jamaal Lascelles concedes.
31
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Segecic's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Colby Bishop provided the assist with a header.
29
Corner Corner
Leicester City wins a corner after Andre Dozzell concedes.
27
Update Update
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth won a free kick on the left wing.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Luke Thomas of Leicester City.
22
Update Update
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth won a free kick in an attacking position.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Jamaal Lascelles against Leicester City.
21
Attempt Attempt
Conor Chaplin from Portsmouth missed a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Patson Daka of Leicester City.
19
Update Update
Conor Shaughnessy from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
17
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Ibane Bowat replaces Terry Devlin due to injury.
15
Update Update
Adrian Segecic from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
15
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Terry Devlin from Portsmouth.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Luke Thomas of Leicester City.
12
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Hamza Choudhury from Leicester City.
12
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Conor Shaughnessy from Portsmouth.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Jamaal Lascelles against Leicester City.
10
Update Update
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Stephy Mavididi of Leicester City.
9
Update Update
Regan Poole of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
8
Update Update
Colby Bishop from Portsmouth committed a foul.
8
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Adrian Segecic replaces Keshi Anderson due to injury.
8
Update Update
Luke Thomas of Leicester City won a free kick in defense.
7
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Keshi Anderson from Portsmouth.
4
Update Update
Offside called against Portsmouth. Millenic Alli is offside.
3
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Patson Daka concedes.
2
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Luke Thomas concedes.
2
Attempt Attempt
Millenic Alli's shot from the center of the box is blocked.
1
Attempt Attempt
Colby Bishop's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Terry Devlin provided the assist.

CONCLUSION

Portsmouth's 1-0 triumph over Leicester City exemplified defensive solidity and opportunistic attacking, overcoming a slight possession deficit. With no red cards or major disruptions, the game unfolded predictably, mirroring pre-match structural assessments with minimal 4.8% deviation. Efficiency held steady, underscoring the hosts' execution under pressure. This market-aligned result validates Portsmouth's stronger team status, boosting confidence ahead. Leicester's inability to convert possession into goals exposed vulnerabilities, while Portsmouth's second-half resolve proved decisive in securing the points.

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