Portsmouth vs Birmingham City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Fratton Park Sat, 2 May - 11:30 AM
Championship
Portsmouth PTM
1 – 1
Birmingham City BRC
Full Time Sat, 2 May 11:30 AM
Round 46 Regular Season
Adrian Segecic - 8'
Goal
|
Goal
August Priske - 19'

CONTEXT

Portsmouth and Birmingham City played out a 1-1 draw in a competitive League One match at Fratton Park. The hosts struck first, but Birmingham equalized before halftime, leaving the score at 1-1 at the break. Portsmouth controlled possession with 53% to the visitors' 47%, aligning with their designation as the stronger team. Despite this edge, Birmingham's resilience ensured parity, with no goals in the second half. The result marked a significant structural deviation for Portsmouth at 73.8%, diverging from pre-match expectations. Efficiency metrics stayed in line for both sides, and the absence of red cards kept the game undisrupted. This even contest highlighted defensive solidity over attacking flair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Portsmouth recorded a significant structural deviation of 73.8% from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Draw result did not align with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments impacted the match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, causing zero distortion in dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Brooks

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

O. Mackey

4th Official

N. Aspinall

2nd Assistant

S. Bennett

1st Assistant

Portsmouth J. Mousinho
J. Mousinho
VS
Birmingham City C. Davies
C. Davies
1.28
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Stoke City Rank: 65 W
Coventry City Rank: 76 L
Leicester City Rank: 66 W
Ipswich Town Rank: 77 W
Middlesbrough Rank: 73 W
Oxford United Rank: 65 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bristol City Rank: 68 W
Preston North End Rank: 66 W
Hull City Rank: 70 D
Wrexham Rank: 73 W
Ipswich Town Rank: 77 L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 68 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 3 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Portsmouth
27.31%
Draw
26.17%
Away Birmingham City
46.52%

Movement

Changes since opening
Portsmouth
+22.36%
Draw
-63.35%
Birmingham City
+40.99%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
68.56
64.61
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Portsmouth
Birmingham City
Power Score
68.56
64.61
League Position
18
10
Global Rank
238
178

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Portsmouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Birmingham City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Portsmouth Birmingham City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Portsmouth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Birmingham City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Portsmouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Birmingham City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.91
32.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.13
29.91
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Portsmouth -0.22 Efficiency Index
vs
Birmingham City +0.22 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Portsmouth
Birmingham City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Portsmouth ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Birmingham City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Portsmouth Birmingham City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Portsmouth Birmingham City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Portsmouth
Birmingham City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Portsmouth
vs
Birmingham City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Portsmouth Birmingham City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Portsmouth 0.38
Birmingham City 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Portsmouth Birmingham City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Portsmouth 0.02
Birmingham City 0.03
Portsmouth
Birmingham City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BRC had peak pressure around 40'.
  • BRC started the game with stronger pressure.
PTM Pressure BRC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BRC reached the top pressure at 40' (91.55).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Portsmouth PTM Home
15 matches
Birmingham City BRC Away
Match Record
6
Wins
6
3
Draws
3
6
Losses
6
Goals
21
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
21
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:02:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Killip
England
30 B. Killip
J. Williams
England
2 J. Williams
H. Matthews
Substitution
Australia
14 H. Matthews
I. Bowat
Scotland
17 I. Bowat
C. Ogilvie
Substitution
England
3 C. Ogilvie
L. Le Roux
Substitution
South Africa
16 L. Le Roux
A. Dozzell
England
21 A. Dozzell
A. Segečić
Australia
10 A. Segečić
J. Swift
Substitution
England
8 J. Swift
M. Alli
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
27 M. Alli
J. Brown
Scotland
40 J. Brown
Pitch
J. Beadle
England
25 J. Beadle
K. Wagner
Germany
31 K. Wagner
C. Klarer
Austria
4 C. Klarer
P. Neumann
Germany
5 P. Neumann
B. Osayi-Samuel
Nigeria
26 B. Osayi-Samuel
T. Iwata
Japan
24 T. Iwata
J. Solis Romero
Substitution
Colombia
14 J. Solis Romero
I. Osman
Ghana
17 I. Osman
J. Stansfield
Substitution
England
28 J. Stansfield
C. Vicente Robles
Spain
23 C. Vicente Robles
A. Priske
Denmark
29 A. Priske

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 46 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Fratton Park
Capacity :
20688
Attendance :
20478
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
John Brooks
Oliver Mackey
Natalie Aspinall
Simon Bennett

Statistics

Possession
PTM
51%
BRC
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 3
37 Dangerous attacks 42
53 Possession 47
3 Corners 9
10 Free kicks 19
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 8
23 Throwins 27
5 Successful Dribbles 5
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
1 Assists 1
20 Successful Headers 23
12 Dribble Attempts 14
5 Substitutions 2
0 Hit Woodwork 1
90 Ball Safe 81
5 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

66 Attacks 80
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

268 Passes 242
10 Key Passes 8
22 Successful Long Passes 18
71 Successful Passes Percentage 65
61 Long Passes 53
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
190 Successful Passes 157

Defensive

16 Tackles 16
6 Interceptions 7
50 Duels Won 59
4 Saves 1

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 5
18 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

19 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : John Brooks

Starting XI ▼

30
Ben Killip
Ben Killip Goalkeeper
6.94
2
Jordan Williams
Jordan Williams Defender
6.56
3
Connor Ogilvie
Connor Ogilvie Defender
6.61
5
Regan Poole
Regan Poole
Defender46'
6.83
14
Hayden Matthews
Hayden Matthews Defender
6.58
6
Conor Shaughnessy
Conor Shaughnessy
Defender71'
6.88
17
Ibane Bowat
Ibane Bowat Defender
6.7
8
John Swift
John Swift Midfielder
6.78
36
Conor Chaplin
Conor Chaplin
Attacker21'
6.61
10
Adrian Segecic
Adrian Segecic Midfielder
6.81
16
Luke Le Roux
Luke Le Roux Midfielder
6.57
7
Marlon Pack
Marlon Pack
Midfielder84'
6.93
21
Andre Dozzell
Andre Dozzell Midfielder
6.77
27
Millenic Alli
Millenic Alli Midfielder
6.59
20
Thomas Waddingham
Thomas Waddingham
Attacker71'
6.46
40
Jacob Brown
Jacob Brown Attacker
6.52
Referee : John Brooks

Starting XI ▼

25
James Beadle
James Beadle Goalkeeper
6.68
4
Christoph Klarer
Christoph Klarer Defender
6.99
5
Phil Neumann
Phil Neumann Defender
6.93
26
Bright Osayi-Samuel
Bright Osayi-Samuel Defender
6.53
31
Kai Wagner
Kai Wagner Defender
7.06
14
Jhon Solís
Jhon Solís Midfielder
6.7
7
Tommy Doyle
Tommy Doyle
Midfielder54'
6.83
17
Ibrahim Osman
Ibrahim Osman Midfielder
6.75
23
Carlos Vicente
Carlos Vicente Midfielder
6.78
24
Tomoki Iwata
Tomoki Iwata Midfielder
6.92
28
Jay Stansfield
Jay Stansfield Midfielder
6.72
8
Seung-ho Paik
Seung-ho Paik
Midfielder17'
6.95
29
August Priske
August Priske Attacker
6.66

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marlon Pack → Luke Le Roux
7th Substitution
84'
82'
Event
Chris Davies
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Bright Osayi-Samuel
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Adrian Segecic
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Conor Shaughnessy → Hayden Matthews
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Thomas Waddingham → Millenic Alli
6th Substitution
71'
63'
Event
Carlos Vicente
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
54'
Event
Tommy Doyle → Jhon Solís
4th Substitution
Event
Regan Poole → Connor Ogilvie
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Luke Le Roux
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
39'
Event
Conor Chaplin → John Swift
2nd Substitution
21'
19'
Event
August Priske
Header / 2nd Goal
17'
Event
Seung-ho Paik → Jay Stansfield
1st Substitution
Event
Adrian Segecic
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
8'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Osman takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Glyn Doyle takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Glyn Doyle takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Update Update
Marlon Pack is on, and Luke Le Roux is off.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Bright Osayi Samuel receives a yellow card.
80
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Segecic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
77
Attempt Attempt
Kai Wagner takes a left-footed shot but misses.
75
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Osman takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
74
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Osman takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Update Update
Conor Shaughnessy replaces Hayden Matthews.
71
Update Update
Thomas Waddingham is on, and Millenic Alli is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Millenic Alli's right-footed shot is blocked.
64
Attempt Attempt
Millenic Alli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
57
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Glyn Doyle takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
54
Substitution Substitution
Thomas Glyn Doyle is substituted for Jhon Elmer Solis Romero.
53
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Brown takes a left-footed shot but misses.
53
Attempt Attempt
Conor Chaplin takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Osman takes a right-footed shot but misses.
49
Attempt Attempt
Andre Dozzell's right-footed shot is blocked.
46
Update Update
Regan Poole comes on for Connor Ogilvie.
45
Attempt Attempt
Conor Chaplin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Vicente takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Osman takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
August Priske's left-footed shot is saved.
32
Attempt Attempt
Adrian Segecic takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Conor Chaplin takes a left-footed shot but misses.
21
Update Update
Conor Chaplin comes on for John Swift.
19
Update Update
August Priske scores with a header.
19
Attempt Attempt
Shot on goal by August Priske, and he scores with a header.
19
Update Update
Goal! August Priske scores, making it 1-1.
18
Attempt Attempt
August Priske takes a header shot but misses.
17
Update Update
Paik Seung Ho comes on for Jay Stansfield.
15
Attempt Attempt
Connor Ogilvie takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
12
Update Update
Jay Stansfield attempts a header but misses the target.
7
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Brown takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
4
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Vicente takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Portsmouth's home advantage and 53% possession failed to yield a win, resulting in a 1-1 draw with Birmingham City after a level halftime score. As the stronger team, the hosts underperformed structurally by a significant 73.8%, while efficiencies held steady. Birmingham's grit neutralized Portsmouth's control, with no red cards or key events shifting momentum. This outcome reflects a balanced encounter where defensive resolve trumped dominance, leaving both clubs with a shared point. The match underscores the fine margins in League One promotion battles.

Portsmouth vs Birmingham City preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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