Polissya Zhytomyr vs Obolon'-Brovar Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine

Tsentralnyi Stadion Sun, 26 Apr - 3:00 PM

Premier League

Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr

Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar

Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 3:00 PM

Round 25 Regular Season

Oleksiy Gutsulyak - 77' (P)

Eduard Sarapiy - 64', 18'

Maksym Tretyakov - 89' (P)

Ilir Krasniqi 54'

CONTEXT

Polissya Zhytomyr defeated Obolon'-Brovar 3-1 in a match marked by resilience despite a second-half red card. The home side took a 1-0 lead at halftime, reflecting early dominance. Possession was tightly contested, with Polissya holding 49% to Obolon's 51%. After the red card to a Polissya player, the game shifted, yet Polissya scored twice more to Obolon's single reply, securing victory. Identified as the stronger team, Polissya overcame numerical disadvantage through effective adjustments. The result showed a significant 31.3% structural deviation in Polissya's favor. Pre-match market probabilities anticipated this outcome, with home win at 68.7%. Efficiency stayed in line with norms, though xG data was unavailable. The red card introduced notable second-half distortion, altering dynamics without derailing the winner.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Polissya Zhytomyr recorded a significant 31.3% structural deviation in their favor.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable as data not provided.
Event impact: Red card event significantly influenced second-half play.
Red card distortion: Home red card caused second-half distortion per adjustments.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

O. Derevinskyi

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

O. Myronov

1st Assistant

H. Svitlana

2nd Assistant

O. Solovyan

4th Official

R. Rotan

O. Antonenko

1.93

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

0.79

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

3 - 1 - 1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Polissya Zhytomyr

68.69%

Draw

22.03%

Obolon'-Brovar

9.28%

Movement

Changes since opening

Polissya Zhytomyr

-28.63%

Draw

+20.12%

Obolon'-Brovar

+8.51%

Team Power Ranking

29.57

12.38

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Polissya Zhytomyr

Obolon'-Brovar

Power Score

29.57

12.38

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Polissya Zhytomyr — Opponent-weighted form score

Obolon'-Brovar — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Polissya Zhytomyr Obolon'-Brovar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Polissya Zhytomyr

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Obolon'-Brovar

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Polissya Zhytomyr ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Obolon'-Brovar

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

30.10

26.57

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

26.57

30.10

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Polissya Zhytomyr +0.36 Efficiency Index

Obolon'-Brovar -0.36 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Polissya Zhytomyr

Obolon'-Brovar

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Polissya Zhytomyr ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Obolon'-Brovar

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Polissya Zhytomyr Obolon'-Brovar

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 1.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Polissya Zhytomyr Obolon'-Brovar

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

1.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Polissya Zhytomyr

Obolon'-Brovar

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Polissya Zhytomyr

Obolon'-Brovar

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Polissya Zhytomyr Obolon'-Brovar

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Polissya Zhytomyr Obolon'-Brovar

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Polissya Zhytomyr

Obolon'-Brovar

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Polissya Zhytomyr had peak pressure around 16'.
Polissya Zhytomyr started the game with stronger pressure.

Polissya Zhytomyr Pressure Obolon'-Brovar Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Polissya Zhytomyr reached the top pressure at 16' (61.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr Home

5 matches

Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-9

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:06:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

23 E. Volynets

31 G. Maisuradze

44 S. Chobotenko

5 E. Sarapiy

15 B. Mykhaylichenko

16 I. Krasniqi

11 O. Hutsuliak

18 O. Andrievsky

27 O. Fedor

45 M. Bragaru

89 M. Gayduchyk

31 D. Marchenko

5 E. Shevchenko

50 D. Semenov

44 O. Zhovtenko

28 P. Polehenko

4 T. Moroz

6 M. Chekh

24 E. Prokopenko

10 O. Slobodyan

21 K. Bychek

55 S. Sukhanov

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 26, 2026, 03:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 25 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Tsentralnyi Stadion

Capacity :

5928

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Oleksiy Derevinskyi

Oleksiy Myronov

Hrushko Svitlana

Oleksandr Solovyan

Statistics

Possession

Polissya Zhytomyr

51%

Obolon'-Brovar

49%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1

8 Shots 5

35 Dangerous attacks 31

49 Possession 51

4 Corners 3

6 Free kicks 15

2 Yellow Cards 1

1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

2 Penalties 1

9 Goal Kicks 5

2 Assists 0

5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

62 Attacks 68

Defensive

2 Saves 5

Discipline

15 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Oleksiy Derevinskyi

Manager ▼

R. Rotan Coach

Starting XI ▼

Yevgen Volynets Goalkeeper

6.54

Eduard Sarapiy Defender

6.65

Bogdan Mykhaylichenko Defender

6.54

Ilir Krasniqi Defender

6.68

Giorgi Maisuradze Defender

6.8

Sergiy Chobotenko Defender

6.53

Maksym Melnychenko

Defender89'

6.31

Oleksiy Gutsulyak Midfielder

6.98

Oleksandr Andriyevskyi Midfielder

6.64

Lindon Emërllahu

Midfielder81'

6.66

Oleg Fedor Midfielder

6.46

Kiril Kobernyuk

Defender62'

6.36

Maksym Bragaru Midfielder

6.66

Ruslan Babenko

Midfielder62'

6.58

Mykola Gayduchyk Attacker

6.74

Igor Krasnopir

Attacker62'

6.55

Substitutes ▼

Igor Krasnopir

Attacker62'

6.55

Ruslan Babenko

Midfielder62'

6.58

Kiril Kobernyuk

Defender62'

6.36

Lindon Emërllahu

Midfielder81'

6.66

Maksym Melnychenko

Defender89'

6.31

Bench ▼

Oleg Kudryk Goalkeeper

Georgiy Bushchan Goalkeeper

Lucas Taylor Defender

Volodymyr Shepelev Midfielder

6.47

Bogdan Lednev Midfielder

6.5

Yaroslav Karaman Midfielder

6.41

Oleksandr Filippov Attacker

6.5

Referee : Oleksiy Derevinskyi