Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Płock Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera Sun, 3 May - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin
3 Winner 0
Wisła Płock Wisła Płock
Full Time Sun, 3 May 3:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Hussein Ali - 90+3'
Filip Cuic - 75', 45+3'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Pogoń Szczecin claimed a 3-0 victory against Wisła Płock, leading 1-0 at halftime. Home possession edged at 51% to 49%, reflecting a closely contested battle in territory but decisive in output. Pogoń, identified as the stronger team, extended their lead with two second-half goals, maintaining control without concessions. No red cards disrupted play, and no notable second-half adjustments altered dynamics. The result showed a significant structural deviation of 50.9% favoring Pogoń, yet aligned with pre-match market probabilities where home win stood at 49.1%. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, though xG data absence limits chance quality insights. This outcome solidified Pogoń's superiority in execution and finishing.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Pogoń Szczecin's 3-0 win marked a significant structural deviation of 50.9% from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with expectations across both halves.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The home victory aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remain unevaluable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events influenced the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards meant no distortion to match flow.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Raczkowski

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Heinig

1st Assistant

F. Sierant

2nd Assistant

B. Syropiatko

4th Official

Pogoń Szczecin T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
VS
Wisła Płock M. Misiura
M. Misiura
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.28
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 59 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 69 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 60 W
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 61 L
Korona Kielce Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Radomiak Radom Rank: 59 L
Nieciecza Rank: 52 W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: 62 W
Katowice Rank: 65 L
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 4 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Pogoń Szczecin
49.11%
Draw
26.75%
Away Wisła Płock
24.14%

Movement

Changes since opening
Pogoń Szczecin
-48.78%
Draw
+24.83%
Wisła Płock
+23.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.68
50.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pogoń Szczecin
Wisła Płock
Power Score
62.68
50.71
League Position
8
7
Global Rank
407
591

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Wisła Płock — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pogoń Szczecin Wisła Płock

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Wisła Płock

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wisła Płock
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.98
26.94
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.94
25.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Pogoń Szczecin -0.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Wisła Płock +0.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Pogoń Szczecin
Wisła Płock
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Wisła Płock
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Pogoń Szczecin Wisła Płock
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Pogoń Szczecin Wisła Płock
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Pogoń Szczecin
Wisła Płock
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Pogoń Szczecin
vs
Wisła Płock
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Pogoń Szczecin Wisła Płock
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Pogoń Szczecin 0.24
Wisła Płock 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Pogoń Szczecin Wisła Płock
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Pogoń Szczecin 0.00
Wisła Płock 0.07
Pogoń Szczecin
Wisła Płock
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Pogoń Szczecin had peak pressure around 43'.
  • Pogoń Szczecin started the game with stronger pressure.
Pogoń Szczecin Pressure Wisła Płock Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Pogoń Szczecin reached the top pressure at 43' (84.31).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Home
19 matches
Wisła Płock Wisła Płock Away
Match Record
7
Wins
8
4
Draws
4
8
Losses
7
Goals
24
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
24
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:05:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
V. Cojocaru
Romania
77 V. Cojocaru
L. Wahlqvist
Substitution
Sweden
28 L. Wahlqvist
D. Lončar
Substitution
Croatia
22 D. Lončar
A. Szalai
Hungary
41 A. Szalai
L. Borges da Silva
Brazil
4 L. Borges da Silva
M. Agger
Substitution
Denmark
25 M. Agger
F. Ulvestad
Norway
8 F. Ulvestad
K. Acosta
United States
3 K. Acosta
P. Mukairu
Substitution
Nigeria
18 P. Mukairu
F. Čuić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 F. Čuić
Natan Lawa
Substitution
47 Natan Lawa
Pitch
R. Leszczynski
Poland
12 R. Leszczynski
N. Mijušković
Substitution
Montenegro
25 N. Mijušković
M. Kamiński
Poland
35 M. Kamiński
M. Haglind-Sangré
Sweden
4 M. Haglind-Sangré
D. Gallapeni
Kosovo
19 D. Gallapeni
W. Nowak
Poland
30 W. Nowak
T. Tavares
Substitution
Portugal
84 T. Tavares
D. Kun
Substitution
Poland
14 D. Kun
F. Hiszpański
Substitution
Poland
16 F. Hiszpański
D. Jurić
Substitution
Australia
99 D. Jurić
I. Niarchos
Greece
9 I. Niarchos

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Capacity :
18027
Attendance :
19444
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bartosz Heinig
Filip Sierant
Błażej Syropiatko
Paweł Raczkowski

Statistics

Possession
Pogoń Szczecin
52%
Wisła Płock
48%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
1 Shots 2
45 Dangerous attacks 64
51 Possession 49
5 Corners 9
8 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 41
13 Throwins 23
12 Dribble Attempts 17
7 Successful Dribbles 7
57 Ball Safe 56
10 Goal Kicks 7
11 Goal Attempts 9
1 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

63 Attacks 66

Possession

339 Passes 319
80 Successful Passes Percentage 77
50 Long Passes 52
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29
271 Successful Passes 245
23 Successful Long Passes 15
7 Key Passes 7

Defensive

53 Duels Won 40
7 Interceptions 5
19 Tackles 12
4 Saves 4

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 24
4 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

10 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Paweł Raczkowski

Starting XI ▼

77
Valentin Cojocaru
Valentin Cojocaru Goalkeeper
7.15
4
Léo Borges
Léo Borges Defender
6.93
22
Danijel Loncar
Danijel Loncar Defender
6.6
15
Hussein Ali
Hussein Ali
Defender82'
6.38
28
Linus Wahlqvist
Linus Wahlqvist Defender
6.58
13
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Defender55'
6.87
41
Attila Szalai
Attila Szalai Defender
6.72
3
Kellyn Acosta
Kellyn Acosta Midfielder
6.87
8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Fredrik Ulvestad Midfielder
6.99
18
Paul Mukairu
Paul Mukairu Midfielder
6.79
23
Benjamin Mendy
Benjamin Mendy
Defender82'
6.43
25
M. Agger
M. Agger Midfielder
6.59
32
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris
Defender82'
6.74
10
Filip Cuic
Filip Cuic Attacker
2
6.52
47
N. Lawa
N. Lawa Attacker
6.55
30
Jacek Samuel Czapliński
Jacek Samuel Czapliński
Midfielder64'
6.62
Referee : Paweł Raczkowski

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Leszczynski
Rafal Leszczynski Goalkeeper
7.06
4
Marcus Haglind-Sangré
Marcus Haglind-Sangré Defender
6.74
25
Nemanja Mijuskovic
Nemanja Mijuskovic Defender
6.71
2
Kevin Custovic
Kevin Custovic
Midfielder86'
6.72
35
Marcin Kaminski
Marcin Kaminski Defender
6.81
14
Dominik Kun
Dominik Kun Midfielder
6.71
8
Dani Pacheco
Dani Pacheco
Midfielder58'
7.2
16
Fabian Hiszpanski
Fabian Hiszpanski Midfielder
6.6
20
Lukasz Sekulski
Lukasz Sekulski
Attacker58'
7.03
19
Dion Gallapeni
Dion Gallapeni Midfielder
6.43
30
Wiktor Nowak
Wiktor Nowak Midfielder
6.87
84
Tomás Franco Tavares
Tomás Franco Tavares Midfielder
6.47
17
Matchoi Djaló
Matchoi Djaló
Midfielder73'
6.56
9
Giannis Niarchos
Giannis Niarchos Attacker
6.54
99
Deni Jurić
Deni Jurić Attacker
6.93
13
Quentin Lecoeuche
Quentin Lecoeuche
Defender58'
6.7

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hussein Ali
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+3'
86'
Event
Kevin Custovic → Nemanja Mijuskovic
10th Substitution
Event
Hussein Ali
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Hussein Ali → Danijel Loncar
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Leonardo Koutris → M. Agger
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Benjamin Mendy → Paul Mukairu
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Filip Cuic
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
75'
73'
Event
Matchoi Djaló → Tomás Franco Tavares
6th Substitution
Event
Jacek Samuel Czapliński → N. Lawa
5th Substitution
64'
58'
Event
Quentin Lecoeuche → Deni Jurić
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Dani Pacheco → Dominik Kun
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Lukasz Sekulski → Fabian Hiszpanski
4th Substitution
Event
Dimitrios Keramitsis → Linus Wahlqvist
1st Substitution
55'
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Rafal Leszczynski
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Filip Cuic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
45+3'
12'
Event
Nemanja Mijuskovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Filip Cuic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Hussein Ali scores with a right-footed shot.
89
Attempt Attempt
Matchoi Djalo's right-footed shot is blocked.
86
Update Update
Kevin Custovic is on, and Nemanja Mijuskovic is off.
82
Update Update
Hussein Ali comes on for Danijel Loncar.
82
Update Update
On comes Benjamin Mendy, off goes Paul Omo Mukairu.
82
Update Update
Leonardo Koutris is on, and Mads Agger is off.
81
Attempt Attempt
Niarchos Ioannis takes a header, but it's saved.
80
Attempt Attempt
Nemanja Mijuskovic attempts a header but misses the shot.
78
Attempt Attempt
Mads Agger's left-footed shot is saved.
75
Update Update
Goal! Filip Cuic scores, making it 2-0.
75
Attempt Attempt
Filip Cuic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
73
Update Update
On comes Djalo, off goes Tavares.
71
Attempt Attempt
Filip Cuic's header is saved.
64
Update Update
Jacek Czaplinski is on, and Natan Lawa is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Dani Pacheco takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
62
Attempt Attempt
Marco Kaminski takes a left-footed shot but misses.
58
Update Update
Dani Pacheco comes on for Dominik Kun.
58
Update Update
Lukasz Sekulski replaces Deni Juric.
58
Update Update
Lukasz Sekulski comes on for Fabian Hiszpanski.
57
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Borges Da Silva misses a left-footed shot.
55
Update Update
Dimitrios Keramitsis replaces Linus Wahlqvist.
52
Attempt Attempt
Niarchos Ioannis takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Borges Da Silva takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Update Update
Goal! Filip Cuic scores, making it 1-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Filip Cuic takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
42
Attempt Attempt
Fredrik Ulvestad attempted a header but missed the shot.
39
Attempt Attempt
Linus Wahlqvist takes a right-footed shot but misses.
31
Attempt Attempt
Paul Omo Mukairu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Deni Juric's right-footed shot is saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Deni Juric's right-footed shot is saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Wiktor Nowak takes a left-footed shot but misses.
15
Attempt Attempt
Wiktor Nowak takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Pogoń Szczecin's 3-0 triumph over Wisła Płock exemplified clinical dominance despite near-even possession, with goals timed effectively post-halftime. The significant 50.9% structural deviation underscored their edge as the stronger side, while market alignment affirmed pre-match favoritism at 49.1% home probability. Efficiency's consistency without shifts, coupled with no red cards or events, ensured undistorted execution. Absent xG data, the scoreline reflects superior conversion rather than chance volume. This result reinforces Pogoń's structural command in a balanced affair.

Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Płock preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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