Pogoń Szczecin vs Lech Poznań Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland

Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera Sat, 18 Apr - 6:15 PM

Ekstraklasa

Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin

Lech Poznań Lech Poznań

Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 6:15 PM

Round 29 Regular Season

Paul Mukairu - 80'

Luis Palma - 62'

Antoni Kozubal - 35'

CONTEXT

In a pulsating Ekstraklasa encounter at Stadion im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogoń Szczecin fell 1-2 to Lech Poznań, despite holding 56% possession. The visitors took control early, leading 1-0 at halftime through clinical finishing, while the hosts struggled to break down a resolute defense. Pogoń mounted pressure in the second half, pulling one back, but Lech's counter-attacking prowess sealed a deserved victory for the stronger side. No red cards disrupted play, and the match flowed without major interruptions or tactical overhauls. This result underscores Lech's efficiency in turning limited possession into goals, aligning with pre-match expectations where they were favored. Pogoń's dominance in the ball failed to yield results, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities exposed by Lech's sharp transitions.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Lech Poznań's win marked a significant 57.2% structural deviation favoring their performance.
Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies remained in line with pre-match assessments.
xG alignment: xG data absence prevents determination of outcome alignment with expected goals.
Market alignment: Final result fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
xG expectations: Missing xG figures preclude evaluation against performance expectations.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match trajectory.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured undistorted match dynamics throughout.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

P. Gryckiewicz

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Syropiatko

4th Official

M. Boniek

1st Assistant

T. Thomasberg

N. Frederiksen

1.41

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.56

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

7 - 14 - 16

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Pogoń Szczecin

32.34%

Draw

24.82%

Lech Poznań

42.83%

Movement

Changes since opening

Pogoń Szczecin

+32.15%

Draw

+20.24%

Lech Poznań

-52.4%

Team Power Ranking

26.67

36.28

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Pogoń Szczecin

Lech Poznań

Power Score

26.67

36.28

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score

Lech Poznań — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pogoń Szczecin Lech Poznań

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Lech Poznań

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

15.63

57.50

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

57.50

15.63

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Pogoń Szczecin -3.88 Efficiency Index

Lech Poznań +3.88 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Pogoń Szczecin

Lech Poznań

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Lech Poznań

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Pogoń Szczecin Lech Poznań

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Pogoń Szczecin Lech Poznań

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Pogoń Szczecin

Lech Poznań

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Pogoń Szczecin

Lech Poznań

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Pogoń Szczecin Lech Poznań

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Pogoń Szczecin Lech Poznań

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Pogoń Szczecin

Lech Poznań

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Lech Poznań had peak pressure around 50'.
Lech Poznań started the game with stronger pressure.

Pogoń Szczecin Pressure Lech Poznań Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Lech Poznań reached the top pressure at 50' (99.81).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Home

37 matches

Lech Poznań Lech Poznań Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-15

Goal Difference

+15

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:07:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

77 V. Cojocaru

13 D. Keramitsis

22 D. Lončar

41 A. Szalai

4 L. Borges da Silva

3 K. Acosta

6 J. Biegański

8 F. Ulvestad

47 Natan Lawa

18 P. Mukairu

11 K. Grosicki

1 P. Andreev

15 M. Gurgul

27 W. Mońka

20 R. Gumny

2 J. Vieira Pereira

77 L. Palma Oseguera

99 P. Delgado

43 A. Kozubal

8 A. Gholizadeh

9 M. Ishak

10 P. Wålemark

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 18, 2026, 06:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 29 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Capacity :

18027

Attendance :

20991

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Błażej Syropiatko

Patryk Gryckiewicz

Marcin Boniek

Statistics

Possession

Pogoń Szczecin

52%

Lech Poznań

48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2

1 Big Chances Created 6

6 Shots 22

55 Dangerous attacks 66

56 Possession 44

5 Corners 6

12 Free kicks 13

3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5

10 Goal Kicks 4

46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60

16 Throwins 23

13 Dribble Attempts 10

6 Successful Dribbles 6

1 Assists 1

67 Ball Safe 57

0 Injuries 2

5 Goal Attempts 18

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 5

78 Attacks 73

Possession

42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

27 Successful Long Passes 15

64 Long Passes 41

426 Passes 342

81 Successful Passes Percentage 77

344 Successful Passes 265

Defensive

46 Duels Won 45

10 Tackles 16

12 Interceptions 12

9 Saves 1

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 16

4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

13 Fouls 12

1 Offsides 5

Lineup

Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Manager ▼

T. Thomasberg Coach

Starting XI ▼

Valentin Cojocaru Goalkeeper

7.1

Léo Borges Defender

6.95

Leonardo Koutris

Defender85'

6.76

Dimitrios Keramitsis Defender

6.89

Danijel Loncar Defender

6.59

M. Agger

Attacker54'

6.56

Attila Szalai Defender

6.81

Kellyn Acosta Midfielder

6.72

Jan Bieganski Midfielder

6.66

Jacek Samuel Czapliński

Midfielder69'

6.94

Fredrik Ulvestad Midfielder

7.03

N. Lawa Midfielder

6.49

Mor Ndiaye

Midfielder85'

6.83

Kamil Grosicki Attacker

7.1

Karol Angielski

Attacker53'

6.59

Paul Mukairu Attacker

6.76

Substitutes ▼

Karol Angielski

Attacker53'

6.59

M. Agger

Attacker54'

6.56

Jacek Samuel Czapliński

Midfielder69'

6.94

Leonardo Koutris

Defender85'

6.76

Mor Ndiaye

Midfielder85'

6.83

Bench ▼

Krzysztof Kaminski Goalkeeper

7.04

Kacper Smolinski Midfielder

6.64

Musa Juwara Attacker

6.98

Filip Cuic Attacker

6.5

Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz