Pogoń Szczecin vs Katowice Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera Sat, 23 May - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin
1 – 1
Katowice Katowice
Full Time Sat, 23 May 3:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Filip Cuic - 31'
Goal
|
Goal
Marcel Wedrychowski - 90+7'
Krzysztof Kaminski 90+2' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Pogoń Szczecin faced Katowice in a fixture that finished 1-1. The home side opened the scoring to lead 1-0 at halftime. A red card to Pogoń Szczecin changed the flow after the interval and allowed Katowice to level the score. Katowice entered as the stronger team yet could not claim victory. Possession finished at 47 percent for the home side and 53 percent for the visitors. The result showed a moderate deviation from pre-match views with the deviation centered on Katowice. Second half adjustments stemmed directly from the red card distortion and produced the final draw.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: A moderate deviation of 10.3 percent occurred with impact centered on Katowice.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data remained unavailable so alignment could not be measured.
  • Market alignment: The 1-1 draw outcome aligned with pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: No expected goals values were recorded for either side.
  • Event impact: The red card produced clear second half adjustments for Pogoń Szczecin.
  • Red card distortion: One red card for the home team created measurable distortion after halftime.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Sylwestrzak

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Heinig

1st Assistant

Poland

K. Stepien

2nd Assistant

Poland

M. Stępniak

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.3
Yellow cards / match 3.82
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.23
Pogoń Szczecin T. Thomasberg
T. Thomasberg
VS
Katowice R. Górak
R. Górak
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.78
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 63 W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 65 L
Wisła Płock Rank: 58 W
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 D
Lech Poznań Rank: 72 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 66 D
Piast Gliwice Rank: 61 D
Nieciecza Rank: 53 W
Korona Kielce Rank: 61 D
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 72 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Pogoń Szczecin
4.06%
Draw
89.72%
Away Katowice
6.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.1
65.55
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pogoń Szczecin
Katowice
Power Score
63.1
65.55
League Position
9
5
Global Rank
393
315

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Pogoń Szczecin — Opponent-weighted form score
Katowice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pogoń Szczecin Katowice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Pogoń Szczecin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Katowice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Katowice
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.79
21.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.70
34.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Pogoń Szczecin +1.20 Efficiency Index
vs
Katowice -1.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Pogoń Szczecin
Katowice
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Pogoń Szczecin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Katowice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Pogoń Szczecin Katowice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Pogoń Szczecin Katowice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Pogoń Szczecin
Katowice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Pogoń Szczecin
vs
Katowice
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Pogoń Szczecin Katowice
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Pogoń Szczecin 0.30
Katowice 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Pogoń Szczecin Katowice
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Pogoń Szczecin 0.02
Katowice 0.02
Pogoń Szczecin
Katowice
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Katowice had peak pressure around 81'.
  • Pogoń Szczecin started the game with stronger pressure.
Pogoń Szczecin Pressure Katowice Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Katowice reached the top pressure at 81' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pogoń Szczecin Pogoń Szczecin Home
3 matches
Katowice Katowice Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
5
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:03:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
K. Kamiński
Poland
31 K. Kamiński
L. Wahlqvist
Substitution
Sweden
28 L. Wahlqvist
D. Keramitsis
Greece
13 D. Keramitsis
A. Szalai
Hungary
41 A. Szalai
B. Mendy
Substitution
France
23 B. Mendy
M. Agger
Denmark
25 M. Agger
F. Ulvestad
Norway
8 F. Ulvestad
J. Biegański
Substitution
Poland
6 J. Biegański
P. Mukairu
Substitution
Nigeria
18 P. Mukairu
F. Čuić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 F. Čuić
S. Greenwood
Substitution
England
90 S. Greenwood
Pitch
R. Straczek
Poland
12 R. Straczek
L. Klemenz
Poland
6 L. Klemenz
A. Jędrych
Poland
4 A. Jędrych
A. Czerwiński
Substitution
Poland
30 A. Czerwiński
B. Galán González
Spain
8 B. Galán González
M. Kowalczyk
Substitution
Poland
77 M. Kowalczyk
S. Milewski
Substitution
Poland
22 S. Milewski
M. Wasielewski
Poland
23 M. Wasielewski
B. Nowak
Poland
27 B. Nowak
A. Zreľák
Substitution
Slovakia
99 A. Zreľák
E. Marković
Substitution
Norway
15 E. Marković

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Capacity :
18027
Attendance :
20867
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bartosz Heinig
Damian Sylwestrzak
Krzysztof Stepien
Mateusz Stępniak

Statistics

Possession
Pogoń Szczecin
47%
Katowice
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 3
47 Dangerous attacks 50
47 Possession 53
4 Corners 3
6 Free kicks 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

17 Throwins 22
4 Successful Dribbles 7
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
10 Goal Attempts 7
10 Dribble Attempts 11
49 Ball Safe 50
1 Assists 1
1 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 5
8 Goal Kicks 11
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3
56 Attacks 65

Possession

17 Successful Long Passes 17
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
358 Passes 405
10 Key Passes 7
80 Successful Passes Percentage 82
44 Long Passes 43
288 Successful Passes 331

Defensive

32 Duels Won 42
9 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 1
12 Tackles 15

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 3
11 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

12 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Damian Sylwestrzak

Starting XI ▼

31
Krzysztof Kaminski
Krzysztof Kaminski Goalkeeper
13
Dimitrios Keramitsis
Dimitrios Keramitsis Defender
23
Benjamin Mendy
Benjamin Mendy Defender
32
Leonardo Koutris
Leonardo Koutris
Defender58'
28
Linus Wahlqvist
Linus Wahlqvist Defender
15
Hussein Ali
Hussein Ali
Defender72'
41
Attila Szalai
Attila Szalai Defender
6
Jan Bieganski
Jan Bieganski Midfielder
3
Kellyn Acosta
Kellyn Acosta
Midfielder58'
8
Fredrik Ulvestad
Fredrik Ulvestad Midfielder
18
Paul Mukairu
Paul Mukairu Midfielder
11
Kamil Grosicki
Kamil Grosicki
Midfielder65'
25
M. Agger
M. Agger Midfielder
10
Filip Cuic
Filip Cuic Attacker
90
Sam Greenwood
Sam Greenwood Attacker
47
N. Lawa
N. Lawa
Midfielder65'
Referee : Damian Sylwestrzak

Starting XI ▼

12
Rafal Straczek
Rafal Straczek Goalkeeper
4
Arkadiusz Jedrych
Arkadiusz Jedrych Defender
6
Lukas Klemenz
Lukas Klemenz Defender
30
Alan Czerwinski
Alan Czerwinski Defender
10
Marcel Wedrychowski
Marcel Wedrychowski
Midfielder65'
8
Borja Galán
Borja Galán Midfielder
22
Sebastian Milewski
Sebastian Milewski Midfielder
26
Damian Rasak
Damian Rasak
Midfielder46'
23
Marcin Wasielewski
Marcin Wasielewski Midfielder
77
Mateusz Kowalczyk
Mateusz Kowalczyk Midfielder
11
Adrian Blad
Adrian Blad
Midfielder78'
15
Eman Markovic
Eman Markovic Attacker
70
Mateusz Wdowiak
Mateusz Wdowiak
Midfielder46'
27
Bartosz Nowak
Bartosz Nowak Attacker
99
Adam Zrelak
Adam Zrelak Attacker
80
Ilya Shkurin
Ilya Shkurin
Attacker58'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+7'
Event
Marcel Wedrychowski
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Krzysztof Kaminski
1st Redcard
90+2'
Event
Offside / Goal Disallowed
85'
78'
Event
Adrian Blad → Mateusz Kowalczyk
10th Substitution
Event
Hussein Ali → Linus Wahlqvist
9th Substitution
72'
Event
N. Lawa → Sam Greenwood
7th Substitution
65'
Event
Kamil Grosicki → Paul Mukairu
6th Substitution
65'
65'
Event
Marcel Wedrychowski → Alan Czerwinski
8th Substitution
61'
Event
Alan Czerwinski
4th Yellowcard
Event
Kellyn Acosta → Jan Bieganski
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Leonardo Koutris → Benjamin Mendy
4th Substitution
58'
58'
Event
Ilya Shkurin → Adam Zrelak
5th Substitution
Event
Benjamin Mendy
3rd Yellowcard
51'
46'
Event
Mateusz Wdowiak → Eman Markovic
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Damian Rasak → Sebastian Milewski
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Rafal Straczek
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jan Bieganski
1st Yellowcard
41'
Event
Filip Cuic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
31'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Wedrychowski takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Nowak's left-footed shot is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Grosicki takes a right-footed shot but misses.
87
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Wdowiak takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Update Update
The VAR decision has disallowed the goal due to offside.
85
Attempt Attempt
Natan Lawa's right-footed shot is saved.
78
Update Update
Adrian Blad is on, and Mateusz Kowalczyk is off.
76
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Nowak takes a header shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Nowak's header is saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Borja Galan Gonzalez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
73
Attempt Attempt
Lukas Klemenz takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
72
Update Update
Hussein Ali comes on for Linus Wahlqvist.
70
Attempt Attempt
Linus Wahlqvist takes a right-footed shot but misses.
70
Attempt Attempt
Natan Lawa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Update Update
Marcel Wedrychowski replaces Alan Czerwinski.
65
Update Update
Kamil Grosicki comes on for Paul Omo Mukairu.
65
Update Update
Natan Lawa comes on for Sam Greenwood.
63
Attempt Attempt
Attila Szalai takes a left-footed shot but misses.
63
Attempt Attempt
Attila Szalai takes a left-footed shot but misses.
58
Update Update
Ilia Shkurin replaces Adam Zrelak.
58
Update Update
Leonardo Koutris replaces Benjamin Mendy.
58
Update Update
Kellyn Acosta is on, and Jan Bieganski is off.
58
Attempt Attempt
Mateusz Wdowiak takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Benjamin Mendy receives a yellow card.
46
Update Update
Mateusz Wdowiak replaces Eman Markovic.
46
Update Update
Damian Rasak replaces Sebastian Milewski.
31
Attempt Attempt
Filip Cuic takes a right-footed shot and scores.
27
Update Update
Filip Cuic attempts a header but misses the target.
23
Attempt Attempt
Paul Omo Mukairu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
19
Attempt Attempt
Sam Greenwood takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Attempt Attempt
Paul Omo Mukairu attempts a right-footed shot but misses.
14
Update Update
Filip Cuic attempts a header but misses the target.
12
Attempt Attempt
Sam Greenwood takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
11
Attempt Attempt
Mads Agger's left-footed shot is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Damian Sylwestrzak.
1
Attempt Attempt
Fredrik Ulvestad's right-footed shot is blocked.

CONCLUSION

Pogoń Szczecin and Katowice shared the points in a 1-1 draw after the home team led 1-0 at the interval. The red card to Pogoń Szczecin shifted control and enabled Katowice to equalize during the second half. Katowice held 53 percent possession yet failed to turn that edge into a win. The draw reflected a moderate deviation from earlier views while remaining aligned with overall expectations. Red card effects dictated the later stages and prevented either side from claiming three points. Both teams finished with one goal each after an even contest disrupted by the dismissal.

Pogoń Szczecin vs Katowice preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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