Pisa vs Lecce Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani Fri, 1 May - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Pisa PIS
1 Winner 2
Lecce LEC
Full Time Fri, 1 May 6:45 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Mehdi Léris - 56'
Goal
|
Goal
Walid Cheddira - 65'
Lameck Banda - 52'

CONTEXT

In a gripping Serie B encounter at the Arena Garibaldi, Pisa fell 1-2 to Lecce, a result that underscores the visitors' clinical edge. The first half ended 0-0, with the home side holding 58% possession yet struggling to break through Lecce's resolute defense. Post-interval, Pisa's dominance in ball control did not translate into goals, as Lecce capitalized on counter-attacks to score twice while conceding once. Deemed the stronger team pre-match, Lecce's triumph highlighted their efficiency despite lower possession. This outcome reflects a significant structural deviation of 59.7% in Lecce's favor, aligning with market expectations where they were slightly favored. No red cards or major events altered the flow, allowing tactical battles to decide the contest. Pisa's inability to convert possession into points leaves them reflecting on missed opportunities, while Lecce builds momentum with a hard-fought away win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lecce's 1-2 win showed a 59.7% significant structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Final result aligned fully with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events swayed the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Doveri

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Tremolada

4th Official

A. Lo Cicero

1st Assistant

P. Laudato

2nd Assistant

Pisa O. Hiljemark
O. Hiljemark
VS
Lecce E. Di Francesco
E. Di Francesco
0.52
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.92
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Parma Rank: 72 L
Genoa Rank: 74 L
Roma Rank: 83 L
Torino Rank: 75 L
Como Rank: 83 L
Cagliari Rank: 70 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hellas Verona Rank: 63 D
Fiorentina Rank: 77 D
Bologna Rank: 78 L
Atalanta Rank: 84 L
Roma Rank: 84 L
Napoli Rank: 86 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Pisa
27.79%
Draw
31.92%
Away Lecce
40.29%

Movement

Changes since opening
Pisa
+27.6%
Draw
+27.72%
Lecce
-55.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
53.87
68.53
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pisa
Lecce
Power Score
53.87
68.53
League Position
20
17
Global Rank
394
233

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Pisa — Opponent-weighted form score
Lecce — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pisa Lecce

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Pisa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lecce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Pisa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lecce
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.84
22.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.38
32.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Pisa +1.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Lecce -1.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Pisa
Lecce
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Pisa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lecce
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Pisa Lecce
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Pisa Lecce
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Pisa
Lecce
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Pisa
vs
Lecce
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Pisa Lecce
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Pisa 0.41
Lecce 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Pisa Lecce
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Pisa 0.04
Lecce 0.02
Pisa
Lecce
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PIS had peak pressure around 80'.
  • LEC started the game with stronger pressure.
PIS Pressure LEC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PIS reached the top pressure at 80' (81.91).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pisa PIS Home
7 matches
Lecce LEC Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
6
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-02T00:03:54+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Šemper
Croatia
1 A. Šemper
S. Canestrelli
Italy
5 S. Canestrelli
A. Caracciolo
Italy
4 A. Caracciolo
R. Bozhinov
Substitution
Bulgaria
2 R. Bozhinov
M. Marcel Léris
Algeria
7 M. Marcel Léris
?. Vural
Substitution
Sweden
21 ?. Vural
E. Akinsanmiro
Substitution
Nigeria
14 E. Akinsanmiro
M. Aebischer
Switzerland
20 M. Aebischer
S. Angori
Substitution
Italy
3 S. Angori
S. Moreo
Italy
32 S. Moreo
F. Stojilkovic
Substitution
Switzerland
81 F. Stojilkovic
Pitch
W. Falcone
Italy
30 W. Falcone
A. Gallo
Italy
25 A. Gallo
T. Coelho Oliveira
44 T. Coelho Oliveira
J. Siebert
Germany
5 J. Siebert
D. Melo Veiga
Portugal
17 D. Melo Veiga
O. Ngom
France
79 O. Ngom
Y. Ramadani
Albania
20 Y. Ramadani
L. Banda
Substitution
Zambia
19 L. Banda
L. Coulibaly
Mali
29 L. Coulibaly
S. Pierotti
Substitution
Argentina
50 S. Pierotti
W. Cheddira
Substitution
Morocco
99 W. Cheddira

General Information

Date & Time :
May 01, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
Capacity :
10442
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Daniele Doveri
Paride Tremolada
Alessandro Lo Cicero
Paolo Laudato

Statistics

Possession
PIS
56%
LEC
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 4
41 Dangerous attacks 48
58 Possession 42
6 Corners 1
13 Free kicks 15
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

7 Successful Dribbles 12
12 Dribble Attempts 20
20 Throwins 20
21 Successful Headers 15
58 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
9 Goal Kicks 6
1 Injuries 0
11 Goal Attempts 6
82 Ball Safe 74
0 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 3

Attacking

74 Attacks 98
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 72
308 Successful Passes 205
52 Long Passes 38
19 Successful Long Passes 10
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 26
15 Key Passes 5
395 Passes 285

Defensive

57 Duels Won 55
3 Saves 6
19 Tackles 14
14 Interceptions 6

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 15
9 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

15 Fouls 13
6 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Doveri

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Semper
Adrian Semper Goalkeeper
6.94
2
Rosen Bozhinov
Rosen Bozhinov Defender
6.81
11
Juan Cuadrado
Juan Cuadrado
Midfielder81'
6.67
4
Antonio Caracciolo
Antonio Caracciolo Defender
6.72
5
Simone Canestrelli
Simone Canestrelli Defender
6.64
3
Samuele Angori
Samuele Angori Midfielder
6.75
15
Idrissa Touré
Idrissa Touré
Midfielder64'
6.71
7
Mehdi Léris
Mehdi Léris Midfielder
6.75
14
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro Midfielder
6.81
17
Rafiu Durosinmi
Rafiu Durosinmi
Attacker81'
6.49
20
Michel Aebischer
Michel Aebischer Midfielder
6.85
21
İsak Vural
İsak Vural Midfielder
6.62
36
Gabriele Piccinini
Gabriele Piccinini
Midfielder70'
6.55
32
Stefano Moreo
Stefano Moreo Attacker
6.94
81
Filip Stojilkovic
Filip Stojilkovic Attacker
6.43
9
Henrik Meister
Henrik Meister
Attacker70'
6.44
Referee : Daniele Doveri

Starting XI ▼

30
Wladimiro Falcone
Wladimiro Falcone Goalkeeper
6.79
5
Jamil Siebert
Jamil Siebert Defender
6.74
17
Danilo Veiga
Danilo Veiga Defender
6.69
25
Antonino Gallo
Antonino Gallo Defender
6.72
44
Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel Defender
6.9
19
Lameck Banda
Lameck Banda Midfielder
6.64
18
Gaby Jean
Gaby Jean
Defender71'
6.61
20
Ylber Ramadani
Ylber Ramadani Midfielder
6.82
29
Lassana Coulibaly
Lassana Coulibaly Midfielder
6.83
50
Santiago Pierotti
Santiago Pierotti Midfielder
6.54
16
Omri Gandelman
Omri Gandelman
Midfielder90+3'
6.54
79
Oumar Ngom
Oumar Ngom Midfielder
6.7
99
Walid Cheddira
Walid Cheddira Attacker
6.6
22
Francesco Camarda
Francesco Camarda
Attacker71'
6.53

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Omri Gandelman → Santiago Pierotti
8th Substitution
Event
Henrik Meister
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90'
88'
Event
Santiago Pierotti
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Rafiu Durosinmi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Juan Cuadrado → Rosen Bozhinov
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Rafiu Durosinmi → Ebenezer Akinsanmiro
7th Substitution
81'
80'
Event
Var
71'
Event
Gaby Jean → Lameck Banda
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Francesco Camarda  → Walid Cheddira
4th Substitution
Event
Henrik Meister → Filip Stojilkovic
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Gabriele Piccinini → İsak Vural
3rd Substitution
70'
66'
Event
Walid Cheddira
3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Walid Cheddira
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Idrissa Touré → Samuele Angori
1st Substitution
64'
Event
Michel Aebischer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
61'
Event
Mehdi Léris
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
56'
52'
Event
Lameck Banda
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Antonio Caracciolo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
43'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Idrissa Toure's header is saved.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Henrik Meister receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Idrissa Toure's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Michel Aebischer takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Update Update
Omri Gandelman is on, and Santiago Pierotti is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Juan Guillermo Cuadrado Bello takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Caracciolo attempts a header but misses the shot.
89
Update Update
Gabriele Piccinini's header is blocked.
88
Update Update
Rafiu Durosinmi attempts a header but misses the target.
88
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Santiago Pierotti receives a yellow card.
84
Attempt Attempt
Francesco Camarda takes a right-footed shot but misses.
82
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rafiu Durosinmi receives a yellow card.
81
Update Update
Rafiu Durosinmi replaces Ebenezer Akinsanmiro.
81
Update Update
Juan Guillermo Cuadrado Bello is on, and Rosen Bozhinov is off.
80
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Pierotti takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
79
Attempt Attempt
Simone Canestrelli attempts a header but misses the shot.
74
Attempt Attempt
Gabriele Piccinini takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
74
Attempt Attempt
Idrissa Toure takes a left-footed shot but misses.
73
Attempt Attempt
Stefano Moreo's left-footed shot is blocked.
71
Substitution Substitution
Gaby Jean is substituted for Lameck Banda.
71
Update Update
Francesco Camarda comes on for Walid Cheddira.
70
Update Update
Gabriele Piccinini comes on for Isak Vural.
70
Update Update
Henrik Meister comes on for Filip Stojilkovic.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Walid Cheddira receives a yellow card.
65
Update Update
Goal! Walid Cheddira scores to make it 1-2, assisted by Santiago Pierotti.
65
Attempt Attempt
Walid Cheddira takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
64
Update Update
Idrissa Toure is on, and Samuele Angori is off.
62
Attempt Attempt
Ylber Ramadani takes a right-footed shot but misses.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Michel Aebischer receives a yellow card.
56
Attempt Attempt
Mehdi Leris scores with a right-footed shot.
52
Attempt Attempt
Lameck Banda scores with a left-footed shot.
52
Attempt Attempt
Isak Vural takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Filip Stojilkovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Antonio Caracciolo receives a yellow card.
33
Attempt Attempt
Lassana Coulibaly takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Update Update
Stefano Moreo attempts a header but misses the target.
26
Attempt Attempt
Simone Canestrelli takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Filip Stojilkovic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
16
Attempt Attempt
Filip Stojilkovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
13
Attempt Attempt
Michel Aebischer takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Lameck Banda's right-footed shot is saved.

CONCLUSION

Lecce's 1-2 victory over Pisa validates their status as the stronger outfit, overcoming 42% possession through sharp finishing and defensive solidity. Pisa's 58% ball share yielded just one goal, exposing conversion issues in a match level at halftime. This significant 59.7% deviation underscores Lecce's outperformance, consistent with market views and efficiency norms. Without red cards or disruptions, the game hinged on second-half execution, where Lecce prevailed decisively. For Pisa, the loss prompts tactical tweaks ahead; for Lecce, it boosts confidence in their promotion push, proving resilience trumps possession in tight fixtures.

Pisa vs Lecce preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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