Piast Gliwice vs Zagłębie Lubin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Miejski Sat, 7 Mar - 4:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice
1 Winner 3
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 4:30 PM
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz - 22'
Goal
|
Goal
Michalis Kosidis - 89'
Damian Michalski - 69'
Josip Corluka - 27'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Piast Gliwice 1–3 Zagłębie Lubin. The result saw Zagłębie Lubin take the points. Zagłębie Lubin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 67%–33%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zagłębie Lubin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

W. Myć

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Sokolnicki

1st Assistant

M. Lisowski

2nd Assistant

L. Lewandowski

4th Official

Piast Gliwice D. Myśliwiec
D. Myśliwiec
VS
Zagłębie Lubin L. Ojrzynski
L. Ojrzynski
1.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cracovia Kraków Rank: W
Motor Lublin Rank: L
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Wisła Płock Rank: W
Lech Poznań Rank: W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wisła Płock Rank: W
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: D
Korona Kielce Rank: W
Katowice Rank: L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: W
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 11 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Piast Gliwice
48.13%
Draw
28.36%
Away Zagłębie Lubin
23.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
40.28
56.94
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Piast Gliwice
Zagłębie Lubin
Power Score
40.28
56.94
League Position
14
1
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Piast Gliwice — Opponent-weighted form score
Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Piast Gliwice Zagłębie Lubin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Piast Gliwice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zagłębie Lubin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Piast Gliwice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zagłębie Lubin
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.63
33.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.18
29.63
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Piast Gliwice -0.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Zagłębie Lubin +0.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Piast Gliwice
Zagłębie Lubin
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Piast Gliwice ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zagłębie Lubin
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Piast Gliwice Zagłębie Lubin
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Piast Gliwice Zagłębie Lubin
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Piast Gliwice
Zagłębie Lubin
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice Home
11 matches
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Away
Match Record
4
Wins
2
5
Draws
5
2
Losses
4
Goals
12
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
12
+4
Goal Difference
-4

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:10:53+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 07, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadium :
Stadion Miejski
Capacity :
15139
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Wojciech Myć
Pawel Sokolnicki
Marcin Lisowski
Leszek Lewandowski

Statistics

Possession
Piast Gliwice
63%
Zagłębie Lubin
37%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 1
12 Shots 7
77 Dangerous attacks 59
67 Possession 33
10 Corners 7
15 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
46 Ball Safe 43
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 11
8 Dribble Attempts 9
7 Goal Kicks 18
1 Assists 3
5 Goal Attempts 3
14 Throwins 15
4 Successful Dribbles 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
96 Attacks 78

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 60
16 Successful Long Passes 16
39 Long Passes 64
439 Passes 212
355 Successful Passes 128
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 25
11 Key Passes 7

Defensive

13 Tackles 10
2 Interceptions 3
2 Saves 2

Build-up

30 Total Crosses 16
8 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

9 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Patryk Dziczek
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+2'
90+2'
Event
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Michalis Kosidis
2nd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Michalis Kosidis
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
86'
Event
Luka Lucic → Mateusz Grzybek
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Jakub Sypek → Marcel Regula
10th Substitution
Event
Ivan Lima → Hugo Vallejo
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Andreas Katsantonis → German Barkovskiy
7th Substitution
81'
74'
Event
Mateusz Dziewiatowski → Jakub Kolan
6th Substitution
Event
Michal Chrapek → Jorge Félix
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Oskar Lesniak → Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
5th Substitution
72'
69'
Event
Damian Michalski
Header / 3rd Goal
61'
Event
Michalis Kosidis → Levente Szabó
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Adam Radwanski → Jesus Diaz
3rd Substitution
Event
Jason Lokilo → Leandro Sanca
1st Substitution
57'
52'
Event
Jakub Kolan
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
27'
Event
Josip Corluka
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
22'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Zagłębie Lubin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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