Pescara vs Spezia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia Fri, 8 May - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Pescara PES
1 – 1
Spezia SPE
Full Time Fri, 8 May 6:30 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Davide Faraoni - 10'
Goal
|
Goal
Gabriele Artistico - 73'

CONTEXT

Pescara hosted Spezia in a tightly contested match that ended in a 1-1 draw. The home team established a 1-0 lead by halftime, capitalizing on 60% possession throughout the game while Spezia held 40%. Despite Spezia being identified as the stronger team, Pescara's early dominance set the tone, only for Spezia to equalize in the second half without any reported adjustments or disruptions. No red cards were issued, maintaining a full complement of players on both sides. The result showed a significant structural deviation of 75.3% favoring Spezia, with market alignment not achieved. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, though xG data was unavailable for further insight into chance quality. Possession disparity did not translate to victory, underscoring Spezia's counterattacking threat.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant structural deviation of 75.3% favored Spezia in the 1-1 draw.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as the draw diverged from pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No events or second-half adjustments influenced the 1-1 outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, eliminating any distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Doveri

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Di Gioia

1st Assistant

Italy

A. Zezza

2nd Assistant

Italy

R. Tropiano

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.27
Yellow cards / match 4.04
Red cards / match 0.31
Penalties / match 0.29
Pescara G. Gorgone
G. Gorgone
VS
Spezia L. D'Angelo
L. D'Angelo
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Calcio Padova Rank: 49 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Carrarese Rank: 54 D
Sampdoria Rank: 53 L
Reggiana Rank: 48 W
Empoli Rank: 55 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: 70 D
Catanzaro Rank: 60 L
Südtirol Rank: 54 W
Mantova Rank: 55 L
Carrarese Rank: 53 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Pescara
44.36%
Draw
24.72%
Away Spezia
30.92%

Movement

Changes since opening
Pescara
+39.43%
Draw
-66.27%
Spezia
+26.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.72
51.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Pescara
Spezia
Power Score
47.72
51.59
League Position
19
20
Global Rank
835
748

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Pescara — Opponent-weighted form score
Spezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Pescara Spezia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Pescara

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Spezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Pescara ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spezia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.75
20.13
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.13
20.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Pescara +0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Spezia -0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Pescara
Spezia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Pescara ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Spezia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Pescara Spezia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Pescara Spezia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Pescara
Spezia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Pescara
vs
Spezia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Pescara Spezia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Pescara 0.38
Spezia 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Pescara Spezia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Pescara 0.05
Spezia 0.03
Pescara
Spezia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PES had peak pressure around 11'.
  • PES started the game with stronger pressure.
  • Both teams' pressure dropped after the 30th minute.
PES Pressure SPE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PES reached the top pressure at 11' (67.04).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Pescara PES Home
16 matches
Spezia SPE Away
Match Record
5
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
5
Goals
20
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
20
-7
Goal Difference
+7

Data last updated: 2026-05-09T00:02:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Match Formation 4-4-1-1
Pitch
I. Saio
Italy
22 I. Saio
M. Faraoni
Substitution
Italy
19 M. Faraoni
R. Capellini
Italy
2 R. Capellini
D. Bettella
Italy
6 D. Bettella
G. Letizia
Substitution
Italy
3 G. Letizia
L. Valzania
Substitution
Italy
14 L. Valzania
G. Brugman
Uruguay
8 G. Brugman
G. Olzer
Italy
27 G. Olzer
G. Acampora
Substitution
Italy
13 G. Acampora
L. Insigne
Italy
11 L. Insigne
A. Di Nardo
Italy
9 A. Di Nardo
Pitch
D. Mascardi
Italy
12 D. Mascardi
P. Beruatto
Substitution
Italy
11 P. Beruatto
G. Bonfanti
Italy
94 G. Bonfanti
P. Hristov
Bulgaria
55 P. Hristov
A. Matějů
Czech Republic
37 A. Matějů
E. Adamo
Substitution
Italy
70 E. Adamo
A. Romano
Switzerland
60 A. Romano
C. Comotto
Substitution
Italy
34 C. Comotto
G. Di Serio
Substitution
Italy
20 G. Di Serio
M. Valoti
Substitution
Italy
5 M. Valoti
G. Lapadula
Peru
10 G. Lapadula

General Information

Date & Time :
May 08, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia
Capacity :
20520
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Daniele Doveri
Vittorio Di Gioia
Andrea Zezza
Riccardo Tropiano

Statistics

Possession
PES
58%
SPE
42%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 4
29 Dangerous attacks 21
60 Possession 40
3 Corners 1
20 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

17 Throwins 22
70 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
14 Successful Dribbles 6
6 Goal Kicks 4
20 Dribble Attempts 8
95 Ball Safe 80
12 Goal Attempts 4
4 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1
4 Injuries 1

Attacking

108 Attacks 93

Possession

33 Successful Long Passes 20
369 Successful Passes 206
468 Passes 306
72 Long Passes 64
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
79 Successful Passes Percentage 67
5 Key Passes 3

Defensive

8 Interceptions 14
59 Duels Won 52
0 Saves 5
11 Tackles 13

Build-up

6 Total Crosses 11
1 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

11 Fouls 20
6 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Doveri

Starting XI ▼

22
Ivan Saio
Ivan Saio Goalkeeper
2
Riccardo Capellini
Riccardo Capellini Defender
3
Gaetano Letizia
Gaetano Letizia Defender
33
Andrea Oliveri
Andrea Oliveri
Midfielder78'
6
Davide Bettella
Davide Bettella Defender
19
Davide Faraoni
Davide Faraoni Defender
15
Giorgio Altare
Giorgio Altare
Defender80'
8
Gastón Brugman
Gastón Brugman Midfielder
11
Lorenzo Insigne
Lorenzo Insigne Midfielder
13
Gennaro Acampora
Gennaro Acampora Midfielder
21
Fabrizio Caligara
Fabrizio Caligara
Midfielder71'
14
Luca Valzania
Luca Valzania Midfielder
74
Frank Tsadjout
Frank Tsadjout
Attacker79'
27
Giacomo Olzer
Giacomo Olzer Midfielder
9
Antonio Di Nardo
Antonio Di Nardo Attacker
Referee : Daniele Doveri

Starting XI ▼

12
Diego Mascardi
Diego Mascardi Goalkeeper
11
Pietro Beruatto
Pietro Beruatto Defender
31
Giuseppe Aurelio
Giuseppe Aurelio
Defender76'
37
Ales Mateju
Ales Mateju Defender
55
Petko Hristov
Petko Hristov Defender
94
Giovanni Bonfanti
Giovanni Bonfanti Defender
20
Giuseppe Di Serio
Giuseppe Di Serio Midfielder
9
Gabriele Artistico
Gabriele Artistico
Attacker46'
34
Christian Comotto
Christian Comotto Midfielder
8
Ádám Nagy
Ádám Nagy
Midfielder66'
60
Alessandro Romano
Alessandro Romano Midfielder
70
Emanuele Adamo
Emanuele Adamo Midfielder
17
Leonardo Sernicola
Leonardo Sernicola
Defender46'
5
Mattia Valoti
Mattia Valoti Attacker
32
Luca Vignali
Luca Vignali
Defender24'
10
Gianluca Lapadula
Gianluca Lapadula Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
81'
Event
Ádám Nagy
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Giorgio Altare → Davide Faraoni
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Frank Tsadjout → Luca Valzania
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Andrea Oliveri → Gaetano Letizia
7th Substitution
78'
76'
Event
Giuseppe Aurelio → Pietro Beruatto
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Gabriele Artistico
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Fabrizio Caligara → Gennaro Acampora
5th Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Alessandro Romano
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Ádám Nagy → Christian Comotto
4th Substitution
53'
Event
Leonardo Sernicola
Goal disallowed
46'
Event
Gabriele Artistico → Giuseppe Di Serio
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Leonardo Sernicola → Emanuele Adamo
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Giacomo Olzer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
41'
33'
Event
Luca Vignali
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
24'
Event
Luca Vignali → Mattia Valoti
1st Substitution
Event
Davide Faraoni
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
10'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Nardo Di Antonio's right-footed shot is saved.
87
Attempt Attempt
Frank Cedric Tsadjout takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Ales Mateju takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Fabrizio Caligara takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
81
Attempt Attempt
Giovanni Bonfanti takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Aurelio attempts a header but misses the shot.
80
Update Update
Giorgio Altare replaces Marco Davide Faraoni.
80
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Sernicola takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
79
Update Update
Frank Cedric Tsadjout comes on for Luca Valzania.
78
Update Update
Andrea Oliveri is on, and Gaetano Letizia is off.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Giuseppe Aurelio comes on for Pietro Beruatto.
75
Attempt Attempt
Giacomo Olzer's right-footed shot is saved.
71
Update Update
Fabrizio Caligara comes on for Gennaro Acampora.
66
Update Update
Adam Nagy comes on for Christian Comotto.
51
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Sernicola takes a left-footed shot and scores.
51
Update Update
VAR decision: Goal disallowed for offside against Leonardo Sernicola.
49
Attempt Attempt
Nardo Di Antonio takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Alessandro Romano takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Leonardo Sernicola replaces Emanuele Adamo.
46
Update Update
Gabriele Artistico replaces Giuseppe Di Serio.
41
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Giacomo Olzer receives a yellow card.
28
Attempt Attempt
Nardo Di Antonio takes a right-footed shot but misses.
24
Update Update
Luca Vignali replaces Mattia Valoti.
22
Attempt Attempt
Nardo Di Antonio's right-footed shot is blocked.
12
Attempt Attempt
Luca Valzania's right-footed shot is saved.
12
Attempt Attempt
Luca Valzania takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Marco Davide Faraoni scores with a right-footed shot.
6
Attempt Attempt
Marco Davide Faraoni takes a left-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Giuseppe Di Serio takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

The 1-1 draw reflected Spezia's ability to overcome Pescara's halftime lead and possession edge, with the stronger team securing a point through second-half resilience. Significant structural deviation highlighted an unexpected equilibrium, while market misalignment underscored the result's divergence from anticipations. Absent xG metrics, analysis relies on possession and event absence, revealing a balanced affair without distortions. Pescara's failure to extend their advantage exposed vulnerabilities, allowing Spezia to capitalize efficiently in line with norms. This outcome tempers expectations for future encounters between these sides.

Pescara vs Spezia preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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